Pletcher

[dpatent]

I don\'t know whether Todd is a \"cheater\" or not in the regular course of business.  I don\'t recall seeing the kind of Mullins or Lake-like jump-ups when he has taken over horses, but that doesn\'t mean he isn\'t using something.

I do think that it is unfair to assume that his lack of Derby success is somehow due to the heightened scrutiny and testing that takes place around the race.

First, look at the horses he has brought to the Derby:

2000
Impeachment (6-1), 3rd
More Than Ready (11-1), 4th
Trippi (6-1), 11th
Graeme Hall (46-1), 19th

2001
Invisible Ink (55-1), 2nd
Balto Star (8-1), 14th

2002
Wild Horses (58-1), 18th

2004
Limehouse (41-1), 4th
Pollard\'s Vision (24-1), 17th

2005
Flower Alley (41-1), 9th
Coin Silver (38-1), 12th
Bandini (6-1), 19th

2006
Bluegrass Cat (30-1), 2nd
Keyed Entry (28-1), 20th

2007
Circular Quay (11-1), 6th
Any Given Saturday (13-1), 8th
Sam P. (43-1), 9th
Scat Daddy (7-1), 18th
Cowtown Cat (19-1), 20th

How many of these horses really belonged in the Derby in the first place?  How many later became big stars later, perhaps after they were allowed back on the \"juice\"?  My answers would be -- \"substantially less than 1/2\" and \"Zero\".

The only horse that Pletcher entered this year that I thought had a chance was AGS. SD figured to bounce and didn\'t have the breeding.  I hated the way CQ was handled coming into the race.  Sam P. had no business being in the race, and Cowtown Cat was a stretch as well.

Second,  I am sure that Pletcher will admit that he has made some mistakes in the way he has brought his horses to the Derby.  It took Lukas over a dozen starters over more years than Pletcher to win and I\'m sure he had to learn over time how to do it.  After he broke through with Winning Colors, he won it a bunch of times.

Third, it is interesting the the one horse that Pletcher had who really figured in the Oaks/Derby did manage to win and win impressively.

That said, I would not at all be surprised to see him get suspended down the road for medication shenanigans, as do a number of high profile trainers.  I just don\'t think you can tie the 0-19 in the Derby to a cheating case.

[TGJB]

David-- I agree with a lot of that. It\'s very hard to make a determination with those that are not claiming trainers-- you don\'t get to see whether the horses move up when they get them or fall apart when they leave. I do remember one that moved up a lot when Pletcher got her-- the champion older mare from last year. If anyone can come up with a list of horses that moved in or out of Pletcher\'s barn I would be happy to post sheets.

However-- sometimes an entire barn moves forward at the same time. Happened with Frankel in Spring 01 (Aptitude\'s 4yo year), and roughly around the same time Pletcher\'s started winning everything in sight (when Left Bank went crazy, and a couple of other horses died), though I wasn\'t paying as much attention to him. Word was that both trainers starting using Allday then.

[Caradoc]

David:

One other point worth emphasizing is that by the time May comes around, many of the 3yos in his barn are over the top.  It is fair to ask whether they have been pushed too hard, certainly so relative to those in other barns.  One of the many illuminating bits of information buried in the TG runs-based stats is that Pletcher\'s 3yos in the April-June period pair or run new tops 45% of the time.  That is a very low rate for barns filled with talented 3yos. (For example, Tagg\'s 3yos run new tops or pair at the rate of 58% for the same period.)  Pletcher\'s 4yos in the same April-June period also pair or run new tops 45% of the time, although the distribution between tops and pairs differs.  There is just no good reason why the 4yos in your barn are just as likely to pair or better than the 3yos in your barn, given the developmental trajectory of most thoroughbreds.  In fact, Pletcher\'s \"spring 3yo top/pair rate\" was the second lowest (Jerry Hollendorfer gets the prize) of all the trainers in this year\'s Derby.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I noticed during the Derby broadcast that Michael Tabor said the usual complimentary things about Pletcher. I also noted that Tabor did not mention Left Bank. Left Bank was always a quick horse, but he couldn\'t get out of his own way at 3. He was folding late in his races. At 4, which was in 2001, he became a multiple Grade I winner. At 5 he scorched the Whitney in very fast time. Shortly thereafter he was dead. They said he \"colicked\". I don\'t think they perform horse autopsies. I think you have to take the stables word for what transpired to end the life of the subject thoroughbred. Lundy of Claiborne still insists Alydar kicked his stall wall in the middle of the night to break his leg.

Pletcher went out on his own in 1997. Just four years later he was suddenly eclipsing his mentor and about every other trainer in the business. Steve Allday came into Pletcher\'s life during this training epiphany period. Obviously Pletcher with this particular vet make a very good team. The question that arises however is why? and how should the credit be allocated between the two? Pletcher was just another trainer before Allday. What kind of trainer will he be with pre race drug screening?



 

Pletcher has been out on his own since 1997. TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> David-- I agree with a lot of that. It\'s very hard
> to make a determination with those that are not
> claiming trainers-- you don\'t get to see whether
> the horses move up when they get them or fall
> apart when they leave. I do remember one that
> moved up a lot when Pletcher got her-- the
> champion older mare from last year. If anyone can
> come up with a list of horses that moved in or out
> of Pletcher\'s barn I would be happy to post
> sheets.
>
> However-- sometimes an entire barn moves forward
> at the same time. Happened with Frankel in Spring
> 01 (Aptitude\'s 4yo year), and roughly around the
> same time Pletcher\'s started winning everything in
> sight (when Left Bank went crazy, and a couple of
> other horses died), though I wasn\'t paying as much
> attention to him. Word was that both trainers
> starting using Allday then.

[fkach]

According to Formulator his win percentage and ROI over the last 5 years for all horses started is almost identical to his record when horses are switched to his barn for the first time.    

With some extra time (that I don\'t have) I could make a list of the horses, but I don\'t think it\'s necessary. Most of the obvious \"move up\" trainers have better records with barn switches. I also can\'t recall all that many shocking results off barn switches to him.

I certainly don\'t bet him \"first time\" expecting anything special the way I do with several other prominent NY trainers.