Haskin/Ragozin on the Derby

[Ill-bred]

Haskin gives out the Sheets #s for the Derby on the Bloodhorse website....


Numbers game

Here is a quick rundown of how the Ragozin Sheets and Thoro-Graph numbers shape up. The two fastest races this year on the Sheets are Circular Quay's 2 1/2 in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) and Scat Daddy's 2 1/2 in the Florida Derby (gr. I). Circular Quay, who topped off at a 6 1/4 last year, opened the year with a 12 3/4 in the aborted Risen Star Stakes (gr. III) fiasco. So, with a huge jump to a 2 1/2, which was four points faster than he had ever run, he needed some extra time off. Whether eight weeks is too long we'll know on Saturday. The five weeks off obviously will help Scat Daddy, who did run a 5 1/4 last year. He's been steadily progressing this year, with a 5 1/4, 3 3/4, and 2 1/2. So, he looks as solid as anyone.

Street Sense, who ran a blistering 1 3/4 in the Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), has basically paired off this year, with 3 3/4 in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III) and a 3 1/2 in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I). He looks ready to throw in a huge number after that bizarre race in the Blue Grass.

Also ready to fire big is Any Given Saturday. Closing out the year with a 5 1/4 in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II), he opened with a 5 1/4 in the Sam F. Davis, ran a career best 3 in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III), and then, coming back in three weeks and going 4-5 wide on the first turn, he regressed to a 5 in the Wood Memorial. But with four weeks off now, he could very well rebound and better his 3, which should out him right there. But let's see how much he can salvage from the 18 post selection. The feeling here all along has been that he needs to take back to midpack and make one run. If he winds up way on the outside and can make his way toward the inside enough to get a decent spot in the middle of the field he could be OK. The key is not to ask him too much early and risk getting hung way out on the first turn. I'd rather see him running in 12th or 13th and finding a good spot than being in striking position out in the middle of the track.

Curlin ran a 5 3/4 in his career debut, and then paired up 3 1/2s, so it's difficult to know just where he's going to go from there.

An interesting note on Hard Spun, he has never regressed off a race, with an 11, 9, 8 3/4, 7, 6 1/4, and 5 1/2. He will have to make a significant jump again to get down to the 2-3 it's likely going to take to win the Derby. Also sitting on a big race if he can take another step forward is Dominican, who has run a 9 and a 5, and has a 7 1/2 last year. With his running style, he could escape unscathed from the 20 draw if he can just drop back and pick his way through the field. He needs luck, obviously, but it can be done if the Derby gods are smiling down on him, as they were Thunder Gulch in 1995.

Great Hunter has run a 5  and a 5 1/2 this year, but his second number would have been much faster had he not had to steady once and take up in the stretch in the Blue Grass. The more one looks at that race, especially the head-on, the more astounding it is that there was no stewards inquiry. Not even to post the inquiry sign and look at it boggles the mind. I have not spoken to a single person who didn't think there should have been a disqualification. Teuflesberg clearly ducked out sharply from a left-hand whip and not only interfered significantly with Great Hunter, he even forced Street Sense out, causing him to lose valuable momentum. In any event, Great Hunter was short going into that race, and should be ready to run a much-improved number in the Derby if he can get lucky.

So not to inundate everyone with numbers, we'll look at the Thoro-Graph figures tomorrow.