Question for the Experts - after the wire

[flushedstraight]

Theoretical situation;

Horse A and horse B are improving 3 yr olds in the same barn facing each other today under equal conditions; both have same running style and have identical sheets showing a healthy pattern coming into the race, say their 3rd in the form cycle. They faced each other in their last race under equal conditions, covered same amount of ground, battled all the way and finished in a dead heat, earning the same fig.

You were at the track for that last race and noticed horse A looked tired after the wire and came back breathing heavily, while horse B galloped out after the wire and came back full of energy. Considering all else is equal, would you give an edge today to either one, and if so, which one? If that last race was their 3 yr old debuts off a layoff, say pairing their 2 yr old tops, would that change your answer?

Thanks in advance for any insight/opinions.

[fkach]

I would take the horse that came back looking fresh every time. To be honest, I have never actually studied something like that statistically. But I can\'t see how coming back tired and breathing heavily can be a positive sign. I can see how one could conclude that the fresher one might have beaten the other had the jockey moved a little sooner or harder given that he went out full of run and came back with gas still in the tank.

[bobphilo]

I agree. If the horses come up even by every other measurement (a rare occurance), I\'d have to prefer te one that finished with more in the tank.

The only possible arguement to negate that is that maybe the tired one gives more every time he runs and will continue to do so and finish just as close the next time they meet. However, if he gives his all every time, he is more likely to go off form from his efforts.

One could also argue that the tired horse got more out of his race, but unless he has shown he has run better than the other horse in the past, or has a better pattern and better chance to improve (which in this case he hasn\'t), I\'d still go with the fresher horse.

Bob

[davidrex]

From a gambling perspective,it would be a terrific % move to bet the run-out horse when there\'s been a tight finish.

    This is a betting situation not an \"if,and,or maybe\" bet.

    Don\'t worry about losing the race if your looking to bet on an advantage not speculated by others.

[imallin]

Some trainers instruct their riders to shut the horse down as soon as they cross the wire, to NOT let them gallop out....so, its important to watch the horse in question\'s \'energy\' as opposed to how far in front he went. Some will let the animal gallop out and even get permission from the judges to work the horse an extra eighth or 16th.

On occasion, you\'ll notice a jock standing up but he\'s slapping and chirping.

The \'comebacks\' are very important. Don\'t read into anything, always favor the stronger \'returnee\'.

I\'ve noticed quite often that the horse who comes back exhausted is a great bet against in his next start. When a T bred\'s strength is \'zapped\' they need months to recover in order to produce another top effort.

Also, know your horse.

Some animals have a tendency to gallop out strongly every time no matter what. These animals are probably \'cheating\' in the race and not running as hard as their bones and cardio system is built to do....so, they have some gas left after the wire..they didn\'t \'leave it all out there\'.

Other veteran runners pull themselves up quickly. These are smart animals who know when the jocks eases up on them, thats it and they come to a halt on the gallop out. Typically, these are older claimers who have stellar in the money percentages...these animals are smart, they protect themselves and save every drop for next time.

Always lean towards the stronger gallop out. Don\'t get cute and make excuses for the tired animal.