Street Sense BC Question?

[Sandreadis]

Is there such a thing as a pseudo or false figure acquired by running a race such as the Breeders Cup last year where a runners time is greatly enhanced by running on the prefered path or alleged \"golden rail.\" I guess you see this situation with sloppy tracks or off turf courses where a horse runs a huge # but it is only looked at in the context of the conditions run on.
My point being, is it possible SS\'s BC figure possibly inflated by running on  the rail that day? If the -2 for the BC is solid, it must be a negative that SS is nowhere near his 2yo top?? In his 2 races since the BC,5 horses have been within a length or so of this guy at the finish line.
Everyone is quick to throw a race out or \"draw a line through it\" from time to time for various reasons. Am I crazy for wanting to draw a line through the BC-2.Every other race in this horses career looks very average. Tell me I\'m crazy.

[richiebee]

Have always thought that Nafzger would try to conserve Street Sense in his 3YO
races leading up to the Derby by Yums.

Draw a line through the BC if you wish, and don\'t forget the jinx, but maybe you
want to look at Unbridled\'s TG in the archive. Unbridled moved forward very
nicely off a 3rd place finish in the BG to win the Derby.

Would be easier to draw the line through the big 2YO top if it was run somewhere
other than CD.

[miff]

Sand,

I would not call the figure false but you must question the overall conditions in which it was earned.Without question, I saw a biased rail on BC day at CD. Don\'t know how TG saw it but Len Friedman at Rags said he did not see any rail bias after looking at his figs.I believe TG also uses figs/computer program to flag biases,I think there are other methods equally telling.

I have done lots of research on big figs and the conditions in which they were earned, i.e biases, pace/race shape/perfect trips,track conditions and patterns.While very inconclusive, I did see that many big figs were not repeated in different overall conditions from the prior race.Many fig users automatically call it bounce when a horse regresses but I think bounce is correct only some of time and a host of other reasons also cause figure regression.

If you honestly feel a horse only ran his eyeballs out because of conditions then you should subjectively downgrade the performance, not the figure.


Mike

[flushedstraight]

Street Cry freaked in the Foster at CD, maybe it\'s in the bloodline. Even if you take 3 pts off SS\'s BC, he ran a one 6 months prior during a growth stage, and Carl hasn\'t let him run yet this year. The two prep issue was discussed in depth on this board, you can draw your own conclusions.

SS scares me, can\'t toss him, especially considering he\'s not the fave. Odds will be fair as 2nd choice judging by pool 3, but he\'ll be a saver not a key There already looks to be a few overlays in here too juicy to pass up. Calvin moving too late or getting bottled up or going too wide wouldn\'t be a shocker, but an easy win wouldn\'t be either. Having a 15-1 key get beat by SS without having at least the ex & tri would really, really, be not good.

[marcus]

I\'m beginning to belive a growing consensus that SS is going to be hard to use and hard to throw out ... imo - SS probably would need some time or a couple races before geting back .

So far as an Oaks / Derby DD goes ,  horses that come on board imo are :
 
 Her Majesty , Panty Raid   /  Reporting For Duty , Colbalt Blue , Street Sense

[imallin]

As soon as SS crossed the line at the BC, i rejoyced with my hands over my head and shouted, \"i can\'t wait till Derby day when this false line is exposed\"

Was i wrong to rejoyce in celebration?

Maybe the Blue Grass being a race that will be looked at somewhat negatively by the mass media, SS\'s price won\'t be as short as originally thought.

I think the line looks better than it really was, but if someone told me now that i had to either bet Curlin or SS, i\'d choose SS to wager on.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

\"If you honestly feel a horse only ran his eyeballs out because of conditions then you should subjectively downgrade the performance, not the figure.\"

I don\'t follow that. Dirt Racing, (Please note that I said Dirt Racing intending to exclude Poly-Scam racing), requires using numbers. An effort can be downgraded, but you sure better put a number on that downgrade. If one can\'t knock a point off or add a point on or factor weight or ground loss or track bias and put an educated changed number upon that performance you\'re gonna be confused in some races. Theres nothing worse than looking at numbers everyone says are fast, but not modifying them down upon the evidence one ascertains to clearly indicate that those horses are not as fast as others say and sometimes not as fast as others in the race.
 
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sand,
>
> I would not call the figure false but you must
> question the overall conditions in which it was
> earned.Without question, I saw a biased rail on BC
> day at CD. Don\'t know how TG saw it but Len
> Friedman at Rags said he did not see any rail bias
> after looking at his figs.I believe TG also uses
> figs/computer program to flag biases,I think there
> are other methods equally telling.
>
> I have done lots of research on big figs and the
> conditions in which they were earned, i.e biases,
> pace/race shape/perfect trips,track conditions and
> patterns.While very inconclusive, I did see that
> many big figs were not repeated in different
> overall conditions from the prior race.Many fig
> users automatically call it bounce when a horse
> regresses but I think bounce is correct only some
> of time and a host of other reasons also cause
> figure regression.
>
> If you honestly feel a horse only ran his eyeballs
> out because of conditions then you should
> subjectively downgrade the performance, not the
> figure.
>
>
> Mike

[miff]

Chuck

One point? two points? too subjective. I just know the race was not as good as the figure because of how it was earned.

Mike

[NoCarolinaTony]

Keep drinking the cool aid guys.....

NC Tony

[big18741]

A seven point top into negative territory as a two year old on November 4th.

No recorded works until February.

Nine works needed leading up to the TB Derby.

Stretch antics in the Blue Grass not exhibited in any prior races.

Can the negative 2 be viewed as anything other than solid and a knockout race?

[fkach]

I believe that favorable biases often contribute to figures that are unlikely to be duplicated in the future \"all else being equal\".

In the case of Street Sense, there are several things to consider about that figure.

IMO, his BC Juvenile figure was earned under ideal conditions. Not only was he on what appeared to be the most favorable rail path, he also benefitted from a lively pace in front of him while he sat inside behind horses. Most of his reputation is based on that one race. People are betting him on the assumption that he can duplicate or exceed it as a 3YO. To me, that kind of thing is typically a huge betting negative.  

On the flip side, his first two races as a 3YO have been OK (with the BG being such a boat race it\'s hard to decipher). So IMO, just because his reputation as a 2YO was probably inflated, that does not mean he can\'t win based on what he\'s shown to date. He might get back to that figure or better on development but not on a pair if you know what I mean (the figures will pair but the performances will not be equal)

[fkach]

Very well said.

[Silver Charm]

>Can the negative 2 be viewed as anything other than solid and a knockout race?

Yes, its called an Isolated Top.

[Sandreadis]

The previous largest winning  margin in the BC Juvenile was 5 lengths.3 horses having won by five,Arazi is one. SS doubled that.Below are the lengths beaten by SS.
Cirq. Q      10
Great Hunter 12
Scat         15
Stormella    16
King Roxy    38
Teuflesburg  48
SS wasn\'t that much faster than these horses before the BC and he certainly not that much faster than these horses after (2) 3YO races.

Fkach,Excellent summarization.

[miff]

Silver,

....or a bias aided isolated top. After his first two starts in 07, there is nothing SS has done to suggest that he is anything special or sitting on an explosive derby performance.He\'s one of many with a legit shot.


Mike