KING OF THE ROXY...

[JohnTChance]

To: Team Valor\'s Barry Irwin:

Is your KING OF THE ROXY this year\'s version of Todd Pletcher/White Mercedes\' KEYED ENTRY?

Last year, after KEYED ENTRY ran a spectacular -1 ThoroGraph orgasm in the 2006 Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream, beating FIRST SAMURAI, he was stretched out in the Gotham six weeks later and finished a good second there. He \"bounced\" for sure, yet he hung remarkably tough, bouncing just a mere two points, running a 1.

KING OF THE ROXY ran his -1 orgasm by winning the 2007 Hutcheson. Stretched out in Saturday\'s Santa Anita Derby, he too hung tough to finish a terrific second. Running a great race, running wide, did he also run a 1? Let\'s see how Jerry rated it.

My two cents is that KING OF THE ROXY is KEYED ENTRY. To see your future, see KEYED ENTRY\'s ThoroGraph sheet from Saturday\'s Carter at Aqueduct, and note that in the world of the Pletcher/White Mercedes barn, everything is trumped by steroids and how your horse\'s constitution handles the injections. Will the -1 orgasm KING OF THE ROXY had in the Hutcheson ultimately prove to be his finest hour?

Time heals. If the Preakness is next, best of luck there. Your move. Buy low, sell high.

JTC

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Kudos John,

Love that post.

JohnTChance Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> To: Team Valor\'s Barry Irwin:
>
> Is your KING OF THE ROXY this year\'s version of
> Todd Pletcher/White Mercedes\' KEYED ENTRY?
>
> Last year, after KEYED ENTRY ran a spectacular -1
> ThoroGraph orgasm in the 2006 Hutcheson Stakes at
> Gulfstream, beating FIRST SAMURAI, he was
> stretched out in the Gotham six weeks later and
> finished a good second there. He \"bounced\" for
> sure, yet he hung remarkably tough, bouncing just
> a mere two points, running a 1.
>
> KING OF THE ROXY ran his -1 orgasm by winning the
> 2007 Hutcheson. Stretched out in Saturday\'s Santa
> Anita Derby, he too hung tough to finish a
> terrific second. Running a great race, running
> wide, did he also run a 1? Let\'s see how Jerry
> rated it.
>
> My two cents is that KING OF THE ROXY is KEYED
> ENTRY. To see your future, see KEYED ENTRY\'s
> ThoroGraph sheet from Saturday\'s Carter at
> Aqueduct, and note that in the world of the
> Pletcher/White Mercedes barn, everything is
> trumped by steroids and how your horse\'s
> constitution handles the injections. Will the -1
> orgasm KING OF THE ROXY had in the Hutcheson
> ultimately prove to be his finest hour?
>
> Time heals. If the Preakness is next, best of luck
> there. Your move. Buy low, sell high.
>
> JTC

[Barry Irwin]

I indulged you by checking out the information on Keyed Entry and I fail to see the comparison.

There are a few differences that are key, such as what these two horses did as 2-year-olds and what styles they use in their races. Also, to what distances these horses stretched out.

Whilst I appreciate the advice, I figure it is worth just what you valued it at--2 cents.

I wouldn\'t normally act like such a jerk to a complete stranger, but you asked for it with your absurdly naive comments about steroids and injections.

And one more thing: there is more to managing a horse than speed figures. These animals are made of flesh and blood. They have different constitutions and different psyches. These little tidbits, which also separate one human being from another, cannot be found on a Sheet.

The figures and numbers have their place, but they are but one part of the puzzle. This is why nobody that relies on numbers ever consistently runs a successful stable.

It would be like only running horses when a horse\'s blood chemistry numbers all fit a certain pattern.

Or, abroad, like only betting horses when their body weights conform to a certain poundage.

There are a lot of variables that go into this game.

I am sure that if I relied strictly on numbers, I would think like you. I value the input of speed figures. But I do not rely on them solely.

But thanks anyway...

And if you really want to help me out, my e mail address is valorific@aol.com
But if you e-mail me, you will not be able to spout off on the Board and make yourself look smart.

[jma11473]

Barry, you shouldn\'t have bothered. \"JohnTChance\" thinks everyone is on the juice---it explains his losing bets.

[imallin]

If TV relied on sheets alone, they might not have purchased this one privately right from the get go.

I have to believe this one was a \'video\' purchase, seeing this guy climbing into the dirt as a FTS off a \'glowing\' workout report from National Turf, his first lifetime start was \'better than the line looked\'.

Maybe Barry would be kind enough to tell us what he saw early on that led to him purchase this fine racehorse.

[miff]

The story I read was that Team Valor loved his maiden win at Hollywood, especially how he exploded thru the turn.King has shown a wicked run in all sprints and just got late in the SA Derby at the 1/16 pole trying every step.

Depending on how the horse comes out of the race, they have a tough call but I think if they were going to take a shot,it might be the Preakness.While the SA Derby came up weak, Roxy did the most running of all of them.


Mike

[TGJB]

Barry-- and we were getting along so well...

\"That\'s why nobody that ever relies on numbers ever consistently runs a successful stable\".

In the interest of harmony I\'ll give you a chance to modify that statement before I reply to it.

[JohnTChance]

On this particular forum, opinions stem from numbers and number analysis. It seems that, though \"a lot of variables go into this game,\" numbers ARE the overwhelming part of the puzzle these days, changing the way horses are perceived, and even handled. When HARD SPUN ran that \"clunker\" in his loss at Oaklawn, it was \"numbers\" that redefined the perception of his performance. Thoughts that the colt may not have handled the Oaklawn surface, gave way to trainer Larry Jones defended his colt by referring reporters to the good sheet figure he ran. On the ThoroGraphs, HARD SPUN had run another 2. That is, he ran well, not poorly. And recently, Todd Pletcher changed the schedule of his Derby-bound colts, giving one more time. Wasn\'t that decision based, not so much upon the horse\'s weight, blood count or breeding, but as a sheets-influenced decision? There\'s tangible sheets evidence that Todd\'s horses do well off layoffs.

The young Pletchers that run these huge orgasms early on in their 3-yr. old year at GP - I\'m thinking of those from TEXAS GLITTER through to LIMEHOUSE, VALUE PLUS, KEYED ENTRY and now KING OF THE ROXY. When you run a -1 as an early 3 yr. old, what do you expect next out, and thereafter? Do you project they\'ll IMPROVE??? That they\'ll run a -3 soon? A -4 on dem bones? The point is that improvement has not been the norm, and whoever manages a fast colt\'s future is viced in by that magnificent early effort.

I\'m not surprised an uncharitable expression about pharmacology as it relates to performance is ridiculed. How \"absurdly naive!,\" eh? Mindful of your comments on this forum about Dr. Harthill a while back - something to the effect that \"he\'s the best, and it\'s to my advantage to use him\" - I can twist the argument and throw it right back at you to meet you at mid-field. So you think that Pletcher\'s horses aren\'t profoundly effected by steroids and injections? They run these -1 ThoroGraphs just on their own natural God-given development? Hay, oats and water only? Yeah. Right. God Bless America. You\'re wrong.

JTC

[fkach]

It sounds to me like Barry uses the TG figures, but doesn\'t limit his thinking about his horses to the numbers alone. If I am correct, I think he looks at every horse as an indvidual and every figure in light of how it was earned. So I guess the decision about KOTR will be based on what KOTR is telling him and not what Keyed Entry\'s pattern looked like last year.

[dlf]

Hi Barry:
I appreciate you taking the time to answer these posts, especially as they are not short on vitriol, and to some degree, paranoia. But it\'s really no secret that TAP\'s horses are on a steroid regimen. This is not illegal, so there is nothing to cover up. The larger issue is whether he is using other things, which are not legal. A lot of intelligent, knowledgable people think that he is.
What is your opinion?

[imallin]

I can\'t imagine that Barry is going to come on here and say, \"pletcher is a cheater\". Or, will he?

I guess you have to compare Pletcher to Barry Bonds in some ways. Bonds never had a positive steroid test to my knowledge, but everything else points to him being a user.

Ask yourself this about Pletcher and Bonds. Can a trainer be so much better than everyone else that he can run a completely honest operation and dominate trainers who are good who cheat? Lotsa top 10 guys are \'gaining edges\' in many ways, some legal some illegal so to believe that Pletcher and Bonds are just far superior to their competition on \'oats and hay\' has to be looked at closely.

Sure, there\'s no proof of any wrong doing......ask yourself this.

If The Pletchers and Bonds of the world are doing this au natural, why would anyone use banned substances to gain an edge when they obviously don\'t work all that well? If there are a few trainers in the top 10 in the nation who are cheating and Pletcher is running a hay and oats operation and dominating them, it must mean that drugs aren\'t all that effective.

With so much performance enhancing stuff around, can we believe with with every fiber of our hearts that a trainer or a baseball player who dominate their sport like no other can be dominating trainers and other baseball players who are \'users\' while remaining as clean as snow white themselves?

Anyone have 64 grand?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I see now why Barry Nomad Irwing excoriated you. Team Valor made the plunge upon that questionable specimen of a horse. He thinks he may better the last place Derby finish of Keyed Entry. The only good horse this outfit ever bought was Captain Bodgit.

Later, They get credit for Prized too, but they screwed up changing trainers on him.

You can\'t live in the past. Its amazing that they have a business going. Maybe they dont. Maybe thats the root of the ridiculous response.

Once again, great post John, I think you said volumes about the Pletcher methodology. What Team Valor needs is thirdly a better horse, secondly, a better trainer and most importantly better decision making as to the two preceding issues.

He\'s a candidate for last in the Derby, last 1/4 of the field in the Preakness.
CHICKENS!

Barry, you need someone to review pedigree and conformation. Badly. I can help. Thats a statement of fact. It\'s not easy and I\'m not cheap. I\'ll even prove it. You provide me with the documents upon your top ten prospective Derby intended purchases next year and I\'ll pick the one that produces the most...gratis.  After that, when you want my imput again, you\'ll pay dearly for it.

John is right. Sell that hay burner.

CtC

JohnTChance Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> On this particular forum, opinions stem from
> numbers and number analysis. It seems that, though
> \"a lot of variables go into this game,\" numbers
> ARE the overwhelming part of the puzzle these
> days, changing the way horses are perceived, and
> even handled. When HARD SPUN ran that \"clunker\" in
> his loss at Oaklawn, it was \"numbers\" that
> redefined the perception of his performance.
> Thoughts that the colt may not have handled the
> Oaklawn surface, gave way to trainer Larry Jones
> defended his colt by referring reporters to the
> good sheet figure he ran. On the ThoroGraphs, HARD
> SPUN had run another 2. That is, he ran well, not
> poorly. And recently, Todd Pletcher changed the
> schedule of his Derby-bound colts, giving one more
> time. Wasn\'t that decision based, not so much upon
> the horse\'s weight, blood count or breeding, but
> as a sheets-influenced decision? There\'s tangible
> sheets evidence that Todd\'s horses do well off
> layoffs.
>
> The young Pletchers that run these huge orgasms
> early on in their 3-yr. old year at GP - I\'m
> thinking of those from TEXAS GLITTER through to
> LIMEHOUSE, VALUE PLUS, KEYED ENTRY and now KING OF
> THE ROXY. When you run a -1 as an early 3 yr. old,
> what do you expect next out, and thereafter? Do
> you project they\'ll IMPROVE??? That they\'ll run a
> -3 soon? A -4 on dem bones? The point is that
> improvement has not been the norm, and whoever
> manages a fast colt\'s future is viced in by that
> magnificent early effort.
>
> I\'m not surprised an uncharitable expression about
> pharmacology as it relates to performance is
> ridiculed. How \"absurdly naive!,\" eh? Mindful of
> your comments on this forum about Dr. Harthill a
> while back - something to the effect that \"he\'s
> the best, and it\'s to my advantage to use him\" - I
> can twist the argument and throw it right back at
> you to meet you at mid-field. So you think that
> Pletcher\'s horses aren\'t profoundly effected by
> steroids and injections? They run these -1
> ThoroGraphs just on their own natural God-given
> development? Hay, oats and water only? Yeah.
> Right. God Bless America. You\'re wrong.
>
> JTC

[Lance]

So here\'s the thing that has me scratching my head. For a long time, Mr. Irwin has been an outspoken opponent of performance-enhancing drugs in horseracing. Check out this op-ed from 2002, in which he writes," Are there knowledgeable horsemen who believe that high-profile trainers with outrageously high win percentages might be using EPO? Yes, and I am among them":
http://www.bloodhorse.com/articleindex/article.asp?id=8879

And another, in which he writes, "A policy of hay, oats, and water would place everybody on a level playing field": http://www.bloodhorse.com/articleindex/article.asp?id=16735

Did Mr. Irwin go over to the dark side – or does he truly believe that Todd Pletcher is the best trainer in the history of the game? Because let's face it, none of the great conditioners – Whittingham, Jerkins, Ben Jones, etc. – ever approached the amazing winning percentages of super-trainers like TAP.

Just my take.

[P.Eckhart]

Given the scuttlebutt, it was amusing to discover on the front page of this trainer\'s own website a sizable advertisement for a medicament.

I mean, I\'ve been to dozens of trainers websites and I don\'t recall adverts for drugs on their front pages. Just thought it was funny.

[richiebee]

Lance:

Your take is very valid, but as in any other sport, it is difficult to compare
the great ones of days past against the present stars.

Even without discussing performance enhancing methods, trainers like Pletcher
and Dutrow and to a lesser extent Tom Amoss (who also maintains a gaudy win
percentage) train huge public stables. The greats of the past who you mentioned
--Jerkens, Ben Jones, Whittingham-- usually never had more than 50 or so head
stabled at the track at any one time; Pletcher maintains the D Wayne Lukas model
stable with 150- 200 horses of various ability racing on many fronts and for
the most part actually being trained by competent assistants.

Ben Jones and Allen Jerkens spent large parts of their illustrious careers
training private stables, not cherry picking the creme de la creme from high
priced auction purchases. Ben Jones had to take some crooked legged Calumet
runners along with the champions; Allen Jerkens did the same for Hobeau Farms
and Bohemia Stables.

Pletcher will retire one day with probably the greatest training record ever
amassed (and yes it is inevitable that he will eventually win BC and Triple
Crown races) but probably will never be recognized as a horseman in the league
of Jerkens, Woody Stephens, Whittingham, King Leatherbury, Laz Barrera and Ben
Jones (sorry P-Dub if I\'m unbalanced East to West). These guys are all part
horse, while TAP has more of the qualities of a Fortune 500 CEO. If TAP is
indeed a great horseman, he will never get credit for it.

Also agree about Barry Irwin. Any man who says that drugs are the scourge of
Racing but then eulogizes Doc Harthill in the BloodHorse is undergoing inner
conflict. Doc Harthill could have gone down as the greatest equine vet of all
time, but instead used his talents to tilt the playing field as severely as
possible. My memory of Doc Alex Harthill--womanizer, race fixer, master
chemist,and despite all that, the one man you want to show up if your horse was
in a bad way in the middle of the night.