Hotstuffandthensome - ? for Alan

[shanahan]

Alan, the figs and pattern for htis horse that ran last wkend were indeed overlooked as you predicted...I initially tossed him due to the poor TG pattern of 87% to either run \"off\" or \"X\"...can you explain why you were willing to overlook this overwhelming pattern?  Thanks in advance.

[high roller]

i thought this horse was a great bet as the sucker public over-bet the jambalaya and rev-up , and the horse lost a close photo, shows you how tough this game is. in order to make money these types of over-lays must be bet. i think the answer to your question is that alan pointed out that the horse always moved forward his second start.

[shanahan]

high roller Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> i thought this horse was a great bet as the sucker
> public over-bet the jambalaya and rev-up , and the
> horse lost a close photo, shows you how tough this
> game is. in order to make money these types of
> over-lays must be bet. i think the answer to your
> question is that alan pointed out that the horse
> always moved forward his second start.


yes, caught that...but that really makes me even more curious as to the pattern pointing 87% in the wrong direction...maybe I don\'t understand the pattern % as well as I should...help!

[miff]

Hots last three races certainly did not look like \"off x x\" as the data suggested.


Mike

[bobphilo]

Shanahan,

The TG pattern includes the starts of all the trainer's horses. If you look at this particular horse's figure pattern with this trainer you see something very different – excellent figures within a narrow range, no X's and even his Off's are better than most of the field's Tops.

Bob

[TGJB]

Whoa, there. The Thoro-pattern is not about other horses of that trainer, it\'s for all horses with sinilar patterns-- in this case 5yo and up, on turf, from January to May.

To look at the pattern we go back 6 starts (if availavable) before the three race pattern to find the horse\'s top. That becomes the target the subsequent figures are measured by. In this case, Hot had a negative 2 six starts back there (if you look at his Thoro-Pattern, you will see the neg 2 listed as his top)-- which made some pretty good figures off races and \"X\'s\".

It would pay anyone who is going to use the Thoro-Pattern to review the info in the Intro section of the site.

[miff]

JB,

Thanks. I knew it\'s got nothing to do with traniers and looks at horses with similar patterns. Did not know you went back 9 races(I thought six) and now the off x x makes perfect sense, data wise.


Mike

[bobphilo]

Sorry about that, my misunderstanding. That makes the pattern numbers much more relevant.

In any case, could it still be said that this particular horse figured to do better than other horses with the same general pattern?

Bob

[TGJB]

I certainly thought so-- there are a lot of things that could cause me to disregard the Thoro-Pattern (trainer changes, surface changes within the pattern, distance questions, layoffs), and I certainly did not hold failing to get back to that crazy figure against the horse.

That horse and the one in the preceding race running second had an extreme effect on my day, is all I have to say.

[shanahan]

OK, I kind of follow this...but now am wondering if looking at th thoropattern might be TOO MUCH thought...can anyone else comment on the pattern success/failurs/race condition?