Lanes End Thoughts-For You Reppo

[Sandreadis]

10/1 Ml. Nice developing pattern. Only horse with win at 9F. Has a race on the track. Would be curious to know if he trained at TP prior to his 12/9 debut?? Love Desormeaux shipping. Light rain in the forecast,temp. in the 70\'s. Should acclimate fine to NKY.Like the 3/18 bullet,must have come out of his last in good shape.There is a nice article in bloodhorse.com by Steve Haskin about this colt.
Any thoughts on this horse appreciated. Twilight Meteor looks good,big surprise there.
Marcus, You\'ve followed Turfway and Joe Got Even. What is your take?
Thanks

[marcus]

Sandreadis , For You Reppo  looks very talented - Not a bad call , I\'m gussing the race 2 back didn\'t hurt him too much - because the last number , a 2 pt bounce was his 2nd best career effort . One caution is that the 4th race of the  year might be too much phycically - so completing the third leg of the 02X pattern is not imo totally out of the question ...

Very interesting race and ML prices ,  of the ones who have broken the 5 level , Hard Spun is the horse I\'d hate to get beat by the most and is off a buried figure . Second longest shot in the field at 30-1 ML  Approval Rating ( similar to Twighlight Meteor in many respects ) is another , he hasn\'t broken through to the  5 level  yet but can improve today .  

Joe Got Even might not have his \"A\" race today based on the bad bounce last time that was almost his worst effort to date and this is his 4th race this year as well . Twighlight Meteor could easily move forward now and will probably need that to win , he ran a 4 pt top going  turf to poly before but the ML price of 4-1 seems a little short .

I\'m thinking mainly about  3 horses  in the Lane End , Hard Spun / Approval Rating / For You Reppo  , but not exactly sure about what to do with them - if big prices are involved - boxing exacta\'s and trifecta\'s ( w/ win bets any 15-1 or better )  is a good way to go . Maybe bring in \'Twighlight / \'Joe  underneath at the bottom of the super  .

[RICH]

I was very surprised by the # for HARD SPUN, you can\'t fault the pattern, he is the most likely winner.After seeing the sheet on TM, I can\'t see him. The horse that may interest me at the odds and in the exotics, is Sports Town, this is a horse that hasn\'t moved yet off the the solid #\'s. Lets call it HS and ST somewhere in there.

[SoCalMan2]

For You Reppo looks like a decent horse, but I think he is going to get the worst of it trip-wise plus the race is coming at a better time for some of the others in here.  It wouldn\'t surprise me to see him run a decent buried effort here and then surprise in some races latter in the season.  I would need better than 10-1 to get eager about him.

To me, the LanesEnd is a tough race.  You cannot bet on or against Hard Spun which right off the bat gives the race a toughness from the betting perspective.  I, personally, really like horses like Forefathers.  The problem is that the 7-2 morning line is too short for my taste.  So right off the bat, the favorite and the second choice could easily be there, but the prices are too low to take.  After that, I do not like the two TAP horses so much, so if they take a lot of money, there may be an angle there.  There are also a bunch of longer horses who could easily get up for a piece (I agree with a lot of what people have said about Sports Town).  In the end, I hope I have the strength to skip this race for betting purposes and just enjoy the show.

One interesting note here are the Paraneck horses.  

Here is what I see in Pink Viper -- (1) he cost more than Helios (they were both 130 large but Viper was bought as a weanling and Helios was bought a year later), (2) he is a half to Flashy Bull who was a very good 3 yo last year (the owner is lucky he bought Pink Viper as a weanling before the world knew how good Flashy Bull was), (3) he ships well -- see the jump shipping to Delaware and going two turns for the first time, (4) he has already won a stakes going two turns, (5) he already has graded money earnings.

Helios has never run nearly as fast as Pink Viper and is still eligible for an N1X.  Really, the only thing Helios has going for him is that he has never bounced and he is first time lasix.  He may end up turning into a decent horse, but why throw him to the wolves now?  Is he under Derby consideration and Pink Viper is not?  Makes no sense. Pink Viper is clearly the better of the two and likely to run a better race than Helios, yet Helios goes for the graded money and Pink Viper goes in the Rushaway. Also, Pink Viper has to give weight away in the Rushaway and could have gotten even weights in the LanesEnd.  Oh well.

Also, interesting jockey thoughts too.  Arroyo has won on both colts yet stays in NY to ride a filly (favorite in the supporting feature for the same connections).  Maybe there are still some bad memories from him riding in these races at this track (I know I have the memories). Channing Hill. At the same time, Johnny V does not have a mount in the Rushaway?  What is going on between Pletcher and Velasquez?  Velasquez gets taken off Panty Raid in the Bourbonnette in favor of Prado? And Prado gets Meritocracy over Johnny V?  Are changes afoot?  Maybe Johnny V will be a last minute no show?

[Michael D.]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Also, interesting jockey thoughts too.  Arroyo has
> won on both colts yet stays in NY to ride a filly
> (favorite in the supporting feature for the same
> connections).  Maybe there are still some bad
> memories from him riding in these races at this
> track (I know I have the memories). Channing Hill.
> At the same time, Johnny V does not have a mount
> in the Rushaway?  What is going on between
> Pletcher and Velasquez?  Velasquez gets taken off
> Panty Raid in the Bourbonnette in favor of Prado?
> And Prado gets Meritocracy over Johnny V?  Are
> changes afoot?  Maybe Johnny V will be a last
> minute no show?


SoCal .. Prado committed early to this trip, since his big three year old has been on this path for months. Pletcher scooped him up for his other B team three year olds. I doubt JR was going to give an early commitment for Panty Raid and Merit, especially on a late March w/e. it\'s unlikely Velazquez was \'taken off\' any of these mounts.

What if Prado and TM do indeed blow this field away? one of the Derby favorites will have never run on dirt. Street Sense, Hunter, and Given Sat all coming in off poly efforts? times they are a changin.

[spa]

Hard Spun wins for fun..............a twist to \"the dead rail\" concept.

[Uncle Buck]

the plot...to quote my valley girl sister...\"is like totally thickening...\"

Hard Spun and Street Sense in the Blue Grass? Sounds kind of like Ernie Shavers/Mike Tyson eh?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

SoCal, you went out on the limb with those two horses pre race. That was a bold opinion and you get credit for making it public. Reminds me of my backing Sinister Minister in the Derby. You got Channing Hill and questionable two turn breeding for those classes of race, but at least you got good odds.


> One interesting note here are the Paraneck horses.
>  
>
> Here is what I see in Pink Viper -- (1) he cost
> more than Helios (they were both 130 large but
> Viper was bought as a weanling and Helios was
> bought a year later), (2) he is a half to Flashy
> Bull who was a very good 3 yo last year (the owner
> is lucky he bought Pink Viper as a weanling before
> the world knew how good Flashy Bull was), (3) he
> ships well -- see the jump shipping to Delaware
> and going two turns for the first time, (4) he has
> already won a stakes going two turns, (5) he
> already has graded money earnings.
>
> Helios has never run nearly as fast as Pink Viper
> and is still eligible for an N1X.  Really, the
> only thing Helios has going for him is that he has
> never bounced and he is first time lasix.  He may
> end up turning into a decent horse, but why throw
> him to the wolves now?  Is he under Derby
> consideration and Pink Viper is not?  Makes no
> sense. Pink Viper is clearly the better of the two
> and likely to run a better race than Helios, yet
> Helios goes for the graded money and Pink Viper
> goes in the Rushaway. Also, Pink Viper has to give
> weight away in the Rushaway and could have gotten
> even weights in the LanesEnd.  Oh well.
>
> Also, interesting jockey thoughts too.  Arroyo has
> won on both colts yet stays in NY to ride a filly
> (favorite in the supporting feature for the same
> connections).  Maybe there are still some bad
> memories from him riding in these races at this
> track (I know I have the memories). Channing Hill.
> At the same time, Johnny V does not have a mount
> in the Rushaway?  What is going on between
> Pletcher and Velasquez?  Velasquez gets taken off
> Panty Raid in the Bourbonnette in favor of Prado?
> And Prado gets Meritocracy over Johnny V?  Are
> changes afoot?  Maybe Johnny V will be a last
> minute no show?