Beyer Beware-Changing Track Speed Controversy in the Gotham

[Silver Charm]

Taken from a story on the Bloodhorse. Isn\'t there a bigger picture issue at hand here when the spring three year old numbers start moving around such as this, or not moving at all as in the case of Smarty Jones when several people had him much faster? Also are there not other figure makers in town there in New York who swear the Track Speed never changes over the course of the day? How do they argur with this?

Beyer beware

Trainer Rick Violette is looking to put the Beyer Speed Figures in its proper place when he saddles Summer Doldrums in the April 7 Wood Memorial (gr. I). When Violette found out that the colt's 106 Beyer figure in the Whirlaway Stakes had been changed to a 94 AFTER the Gotham Stakes (gr. III), he was quite taken aback.

The change was made when the Gotham winner, Cowtown Cat, received only an 88 Beyer, meaning Summer Doldrums, who was third, received several points lower than that, a substantial drop from his 106. There was a ton of money wagered on Summer Doldrums in the Gotham based on that 106, and Violette, fearing a bounce, purposely undertrained the colt for the race. Now, the bettors and Violette find out Summer Doldrums actually ran 12 points lower.

Violette said. "In the Gotham, it wasn't taken into consideration that the winds picked up right before the race and the temperature suddenly dropped. The jocks all came back and commented on how much the track had changed. You had legitimate :45 (half) horses go in :49. There was no doubt the track slowed down, so I don't buy that 88 for the winner.

"There were two reasons that contributed to Summer Doldrums' defeat (by only 2 1/2 lengths). Despite the fact that they lowered his Beyer figure, he did run fast in the Whirlaway and 'bounced' a little off that effort, and he came back with so much crud in his lungs after the Gotham he could hardly breathe. Now I'm really looking forward to the Wood."

[fkach]

I have several comments on this.

With all due respect to trainers, I will admit this is coming from someone that knows nothing about training other than what you can learn from reading a DRF for 30 years:

1. IMO, Violette made a monumental error if he changed the training of his horse based on a high Beyer figure. Even if a Beyer figure was an all encompassing number that represented everything that goes into measuring a horse\'s performance (which it is not and everyone that knows anything about handicapping knows that) it would still be foolish to change the training of a horse because of one. He should have looked at how the horse was behaving and adjusted based on that. Why assume the worst based on a number?

2. IMO, the winning Beyer figure for the Whirlaway was bias aided to begin with. The horse was running on the fastest part of the track that day. Even if the figure was accurate, it wasn\'t as big an effort as it looked.

3. IMO, the winning Beyer figure for the Whirlaway figure was too high, though I am not 100% convinced by as much as they lowered it because of the more subjective bias issue that may have contributed to it.  

4. IMO, the Beyer Gotham figure does look a little light based on the ability of those horses.

[Bally Ache]

Read Dick Jerardi\'s column in tomorrow\'s (Fri) DRF.  Anyone who follows this game should know who Jerardi is and what follows is not meant as an attack on him. He\'s knowledgeable, a good writer, and seems to be an unassuming good guy.

He compares Western Playboy\'s race in the PA. Derby some years ago to Summer Doldrum\'s Whirlaway.  Since I had Western Playboy that day I remember the race well.  As Jerardi says, the horse ran out of his mind that day.  I think he won by ten and the time was fast.  But, if you boil down what Dick says after that it amounts to this;  the horse can\'t run that fast, therefore he didn\'t.

If you accept that, then you put yourself in an even tighter box because it calls into question everything you\'re purporting to do and indicates, loud and clear, that it\'s all subjective opinion and not fact.  Maybe (and please remember I\'m only saying maybe) on the day in question, Western Playboy would have beaten Easy Goer and Sunday Silence.

Jerardi quotes Mark Hopkins ( the guy who actually made the figures for the Whirlaway and Gotham).  As Miff has noted here previously, Hopkins is also knowledgeable, a good guy etc.  But he\'s condemned by his own statements regarding whether this is opinion or fact.  

Somewhere in the column Jerardi says that this (figure making) is \"science with a splash of art\".  I submit that handicapping is more art than science.  Everybody has access to the same information, more or less.  How you interpret the info determines whether you win or lose. You have to be good at anticipating what\'s likely to happen next and that sure isn\'t science.

We could say that Summer Doldrum\'s performance in the Wood will sort it all out.  Except that there\'s one built-in variable already in that the race will be on the main track rather than the Inner.  I\'m a firm believer in horses for courses.