KY Derby Futures Bets -- Pool 1 -- Post Mortem

[SoCalMan2]

I know people hate talking about their bets, but I am not shy.  I put down $200 on Scat Daddy.  I think 44-1 is a great price on a Pletcher-Velasquez-Tabor horse that won the Champagne, beat Nobiz Like Shobiz, and was 7-2 in the Juvenile.  I think you can easily forgive both his Juvenile and his comebacker.  I may not win this bet, but I still love it nonetheless (which is a hard thing in the KY Derby Future Pool).  Does anybody else\'s office spam filter block emails with the horse\'s name in it?  Mine does.  IT guy tells me it is an obscene phrase.  I wonder how it got past the JC.

I agree with everybody who has been pointing out that it is crazy that the futures pool is limited to 24 entries.  Exacta and DD pools are no different than what a 144 horse Derby Future Pool would be.  There is even something in it for the track in that they could justify an exacta-like take (no more than 18%, please).   With the enlarged betting pools such a move would engender, the change would bring a windfall for the track (and horsemen, and taxmen, etc, in addition increasing the entertainment value to us bettors).   Also, if it was marketed correctly, I bet you could bring in a whole lot of betting from one time a year type people.  They are happy and we are happy that they are in the pool.  Also, with the way the internet works, imagine the type of aftermarket that could be created.  I bet there could be an active reselling market.  Now, I just wish I had gotten 100 $2 tickets on Scat Daddy instead of one $200.

[BitPlayer]

And Scat Daddy already has the graded earnings to get into the Derby starting gate.  He\'s likely to have a lot of company that\'s proven only over artificial surfaces.

I went with All Other 3yos at 5/2.  It\'s not going to earn me any bragging rights, but I think it\'s a value play.  What happened to the guy who used to pound the Field as soon as the pool opened?

[marcus]

I thought Scat might run back last time and imo - the fact that it didn\'t happen last race probably bodes well for his KD chances . I can understand the all others - the pool felt thin , i went very litely w/ Buffalo Man  ...

[imallin]

44-1 is a great price if the horse gets in the gate. In your 44-1, you have to factor in how many times you WONT get in the gate.

Also, whatever value you had, your 200 knocked down your price from 94 dollars to 90 dollars. You \'cost yourself\' around 300 bucks of value. If you DIDNT wager 200 bucks, Scat would have paid 94 which means all the other people who bet 200 would collect 9400, by wagering 200, you are going to collect 9080, or approx 300 less.

If you waited until the Derby and bet your 200 bucks, you might only receive 25-1 and not 44-1....but, on that 25-1, you WONT knock your own price down at all. With 200 to win, a 52 dollar horse still pays 52, not 48.

You might say, \"Well, 44-1 is better than 25-1\" but thats not necessarily so considering in a computer simulation, the 25-1 is 100 for 100 getting in the gate, where the 44-1 is going to miss a decent amount of the time.

Also, you get a lot of bang for your buck at 25-1 because you are:
1) guaranteed to get in the gate
2) get to see all his prep races and make adjustments accordingly
3) get to see post position draw, jock, etc.
4) get to see all the other contenders races and post positions
5) get to see a warmup (if you have a phone account and are betting from home watching tv)
6) get to see \'the works\' on TVG.

You get lots for that 25-1. (all this assumes he\'s 25-1 at post time)

In my opinion, its REALLY hard to get value on only 23 betting interests. When the Derby decides to have betting on EVERY TC nominee, with hundreds of horses, THAN the value will be insane because you can get 3, 4 and 500-1 on some horses.

[BitPlayer]

Imallin -

Since it\'s a parimutuel pool, they can\'t ALL be underlays.  Sure, more betting interests would create additional opportunities, but 24 is a lot more than we normally see.

Churchill seems to have their hands full with 24.  The real-time odds board they put online was pathetic.  Only numbers, no names.  Maybe they got caught unprepared when TVG declined to take the bet.

[miff]

The three most worn out words used by every genius who knows anything about racing.

1.Value

2.Overlay

3.Underlay

Mike

[SoCalMan2]

I guess I am no genius since my first post did not use any of those three worn out words.  

We are just trying to get a thread going on handicapping here -- cut us some slack, please.  If you want to show us up for being idiots, at least do it intelligently.  A sarcastic attack on posters rather than on their argument doesn\'t make you look any more genius.  If you do not like the thread, ignore it.

In terms of substanstive comment, Imallin, you raise some good points, but, if Scat Daddy makes it to the Derby and goes off at 8-1 instead of 25-1, then the premium will look at lot more compensatory of the risk I took than it does in your view.  

Part of my reasoning in making the play is that Scat Daddy had very good foundation, but a lot of people got off him because of two bad races (both with very good reasons to be throw out from a handicapping perspective).  If he runs a superb prep, all of a sudden a lot of people will hop back on him and he will look a lot better than a 25-1 shot.  I am just trying to catch him when everybody else is off him. I do agree with you that if he goes off at 25-1 in the Derby, then, even if he wins, my bet does not look so good.  The premium is not enough.  But, in that scenario, my analysis will have been wrong anyway and I suffer the consequences.

[Uncle Buck]

Ya know - Every future wager I\'ve ever made (football, baseball and horses)sounded good,looked good and it felt good talking about how smart I was too. I have yet to cash one. I\'m thinking it\'s kind of a sucker play.

[miff]

So Cal,

Was not trying to disparage you or anyone else. My point was at some time every player uses those words which makes all of us geniuses.There are obviously major differences of opinion as to what the three words mean to each player with no real answer.

As far as your bet, if you cash, what you coulda, shoulda done won\'t mean much.


Mike

P.S. Uncle Buck, we go to the same school.

[BitPlayer]

Uncle Buck -

I think a lot of them are sucker plays because Vegas sets ridiculously low odds lines.  In a parimutuel pool, the takeout is the same as always.  It\'s just the analysis that\'s different.

Didn\'t you have Sweetnorthernsaint at 30/1 last year?  It\'s hard for me to think of that as a sucker play.

[flushedstraight]

Buck, if you get enjoyment out of it, is it really a sucker play? (assuming you play this game for fun)

I tread carefully in this area, as I find it difficult to evaluate what odds are good or bad. Plus, with the bullcrap pari-mutual futures, you don\'t know what odds you\'re getting anyway unless you bet late. Like for instance that Pletcher trained half sister to Jazil that just ran that monster race last week. Is 7-2 a good future price in the Oaks? If she makes the race and doesn\'t flop in the expected one prep at 3-5, she\'ll be odds on in May.

The last time I played derby futures was 03, when I played the field in pool one and singled a bunch of others at what seemed like decent odds. By derby day I had almost the whole field. I was at a derby party and just before the race a novice friend asked me what I had. I told him I\'ll show a profit if any horse wins except the 6. The rest is history.

[Michael D.]

I\'ll take 3-1 on the field in the Oaks.

actually, I won\'t, but it looks like the best price on the board to me at $8.80.

[fkach]

For this to be a profitable wager, IMO you are dealing with two main issues.

1. Estimating the chances your horse will remain sound until the Derby.

2. Estimating the chances your horse will move forward enough to become a major contender on Derby day.

Once you have a line on those two issues, you can compare the probabilities to the odds.

I think it would be very useful to look at the betting for the last few Derbys to see what percentage of the horses got hurt from the time Pool1, Pool2 etc.. opened to the day of the Derby. That would help with issue #1 in a general sense. We could always get more specific by looking at the trainer, horse\'s record to date.

Issue #2 is a matter of pedigree (early or late bloomer, distance lover etc...), trainer\'s style of developing horses (come out running, slow to develop), how much ability the horse has shown to date, number of starts it has had so far etc....

I never made any Derby future bets because I didn\'t think I could answer question #1 any better than any Joe Blow that picks up the DRF. However, if we had some decent stats, I surely would be tempted because I\'m pretty sure I can answer question two a lot better than most.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

SoCal,

You got good odds, that was in your favor. Though in looking at Scat Daddy\'s pedigree I wish you\'d gotten them in the Breeders Cup Sprint,  he would appear much more suited for.

I\'m not sure how you read Scat Daddy\'s past performances, but I\'ll chime in upon how I read them beginning with his first race:

5.5 furlongs in the slop. He gets out nicely along the rail, vies for the lead and widens well late beating the Whirlaway winner Summer Doldrums.

6 furlongs, he is gets out nicely again despite some early jostling and is life and death to outlast sprinting a horse Hard Spun has been beating rather handily. Granted they are developing and each race is unique in time.

1 turn mile, a nice wide run and manages to outlast NoBiz.

At this point there is an obvious change in his effectiveness. Any reader of Past Performances should note a couple of important facts in Scat Daddy\'s last two races. The first is that he had to try to negotiate 2 turns at Churchill Downs and didn\'t fair very well.

The other is that he caught the inside part of the one turn mile bias at Gulfstream and didn\'t fair very well against a horse he had beaten as a juvenile.

This horse is by Johannesburg, a sire by Hennessey and out of an Ogygian mare. To my eye that is screaming precociousness and sprinter on male side pedigree. Add to that fact his broodmare sire is by Mr. Prospector and the recipe to go on is getting mighty thin, especially in light of the fact that going on hasn\'t been demonstrated in his last two trips. In his favor is that the direct tail female looks pretty good. But dang its gonna have to be.

I\'ve been wrong before and may be again but I\'d take a very strong position that this is not a Derby caliber horse and think 300-1 would not be unreasonable odds.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/scat+daddy
 SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I know people hate talking about their bets, but I
> am not shy.  I put down $200 on Scat Daddy.  I
> think 44-1 is a great price on a
> Pletcher-Velasquez-Tabor horse that won the
> Champagne, beat Nobiz Like Shobiz, and was 7-2 in
> the Juvenile.  I think you can easily forgive both
> his Juvenile and his comebacker.  I may not win
> this bet, but I still love it nonetheless (which
> is a hard thing in the KY Derby Future Pool).
> Does anybody else\'s office spam filter block
> emails with the horse\'s name in it?  Mine does.
> IT guy tells me it is an obscene phrase.  I wonder
> how it got past the JC.
>
> I agree with everybody who has been pointing out
> that it is crazy that the futures pool is limited
> to 24 entries.  Exacta and DD pools are no
> different than what a 144 horse Derby Future Pool
> would be.  There is even something in it for the
> track in that they could justify an exacta-like
> take (no more than 18%, please).   With the
> enlarged betting pools such a move would engender,
> the change would bring a windfall for the track
> (and horsemen, and taxmen, etc, in addition
> increasing the entertainment value to us bettors).
>   Also, if it was marketed correctly, I bet you
> could bring in a whole lot of betting from one
> time a year type people.  They are happy and we
> are happy that they are in the pool.  Also, with
> the way the internet works, imagine the type of
> aftermarket that could be created.  I bet there
> could be an active reselling market.  Now, I just
> wish I had gotten 100 $2 tickets on Scat Daddy
> instead of one $200.

[P-Dub]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The three most worn out words used by every genius
> who knows anything about racing.
>
> 1.Value
>
> 2.Overlay
>
> 3.Underlay
>
> Mike



4. Bounce

I have a friend who says value 20 times a day when we go out.  As he rips up another ticket,  I ask him how much \"value\" that ticket has now. His reply is usually \"%$^#^%$  you.\"