Polytrack and bounces/regressions

[NoCarolinaTony]

Sorry Gents

Without reading down you guys are bunch of whiners.

You have choices so obviously you don\'t want to bet Poly- thats cool. Some folks never liked to play KEE for whatever excuse they came up with. NY & CD & CAL&GP may be the only place the northeaster handicapper will play anymore. It is your money to do with as you please.

As a handicapper I find it challenging to master the new element and hopefully benefit with a huge finacial windfall while all the whiners and nay sayers bitch and moan, especially against those who don\'t adapt soon enough.

I found betting Polytrack no different than betting Dirt or turf, or any other race for that matter. Each surface at each track has it\'s own nuiances including WET DIRT. You always have to adopt to the events of the day and the way the surface is playing.

So quit feeling sorry for yourselves. It\'s a surface that horses run on. Saratoga plays different than AQU inner, ETC most don\'t seems to complain about that. Gulfstream has it\'s issues too. We could go on and on.

It\'s not that big of a deal.

NC Tony

PS I always find it funny, that Andy Beyer is a dope until someone finds a point they agree with

PSS I\'m heading to Keeneland for the weekend..

[miff]

\"I found betting Polytrack no different than betting Dirt or turf, or any other race for that matter. Each surface at each track has it\'s own nuiances including WET DIRT. You always have to adopt to the events of the day and the way the surface is playing.\"


Tony,

You must be a handicapping genius, very few serious players have found Kee poly to be \"no different\" than betting dirt or turf. As far as Andy Beyer you never saw me post a negative. I sat near him at SPA two years ago and he only won about 140k in two days.

Anyway, good luck at Kee.

Mike

[NoCarolinaTony]

Miff,

It is a matter of adaptation. Speed Figs are Speed Figs regardless of Surface  Yes/no?

When I go into a  race track or simulcast with a complete open mind I always do better then when I go in with a pre concieved concepts. I have theories, but I adapt.

Sorry if I grouped you into the anti-Beyer group I just see it so often.

I just love it when good handicappers are confused. There is money to be had.Turf horses and dirt horses in the same race are equals, usually that is hard to fathom. TG figs have held up pretty well. Drop the DRF or whatever and just look at Speed figs.....

I hit the first runner opening day at KEE which paid $63.00 the exacta came up a little light. None of the principles changed on how to evaluate and bet the race, you just had to adapt to not looking at speed first which has become the current MO fore most players. At times you hadto look at the reverse and how speed would collapse? Not that hard of a concept. As for breeding, I think it\'s still the same sires which have shown versatility on multiple surfaces.

The Storm Cat-  Mr Prospector line Norhter Dancer lineage, Danzig, Gone West- Ellusive quality have all done well.

Finally I am no genious, I just don\'t think it\'s so hard to adjust to poly as everyone is making it out.

NC Tony

[davidrex]

Way to put words on paper Tony.
It\'s really refreshing to read messages from someone so smart and sees the glass as half FULL!
I\'ll bet my butt that Jerry\'s putting ALOT into tricking the polygraph!

[Michael D.]

take a look at the Kee stakes race today. it poured yesterday and they had to take the $125g valley view off the turf. in the old days, this race would have been scratched down to a few horses. well, today, from the Kee web site:


Race 9
Race has been taken off the turf course and will be run at 1 1/16 miles on the main track.

No horses have been scratched.

#11-Delmarva-Jockey change to John Jacinto
#13AE-Pure Incentive-Will run

....

is this true - the race gets rained off and they get MORE horses?

anyway, if they keep a good mix of dirt, turf, and poly, i just can\'t understand why any horse player would be upset.

[manning]

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> take a look at the Kee stakes race today. it
> poured yesterday and they had to take the $125g
> valley view off the turf. in the old days, this
> race would have been scratched down to a few
> horses. well, today, from the Kee web site:
>
>
> Race 9
> Race has been taken off the turf course and will
> be run at 1 1/16 miles on the main track.
>
> No horses have been scratched.
>
> #11-Delmarva-Jockey change to John Jacinto
> #13AE-Pure Incentive-Will run
>
> ....
>
> is this true - the race gets rained off and they
> get MORE horses?
>
> anyway, if they keep a good mix of dirt, turf, and
> poly, i just can\'t understand why any horse player
> would be upset.
>



In the old days this race never would have come off the turf, would it? I, for one, have been disappointed with the number of turf races carded at KEE this meet (many days w/ only one race carded for turf) & I remember KEE being one place where they very rarely came off the grass, let alone a stks. Am I just mis-remembering because I haven\'t been able to get on board w/ the Poly....?

[Michael D.]

manning Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael D. Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > take a look at the Kee stakes race today. it
> > poured yesterday and they had to take the
> $125g
> > valley view off the turf. in the old days,
> this
> > race would have been scratched down to a few
> > horses. well, today, from the Kee web site:
> >
> >
> > Race 9
> > Race has been taken off the turf course and
> will
> > be run at 1 1/16 miles on the main track.
> >
> > No horses have been scratched.
> >
> > #11-Delmarva-Jockey change to John Jacinto
> > #13AE-Pure Incentive-Will run
> >
> > ....
> >
> > is this true - the race gets rained off and
> they
> > get MORE horses?
> >
> > anyway, if they keep a good mix of dirt,
> turf, and
> > poly, i just can\'t understand why any horse
> player
> > would be upset.
> >
>
>
>
> In the old days this race never would have come
> off the turf, would it? I, for one, have been
> disappointed with the number of turf races carded
> at KEE this meet (many days w/ only one race
> carded for turf) & I remember KEE being one
> place where they very rarely came off the grass,
> let alone a stks. Am I just mis-remembering
> because I haven\'t been able to get on board w/ the
> Poly....?
>
>
>


i\'m not in lexington, so i\'m not sure if this race would have come off in the past. fair point though, one has to consider the added likelihood of races being taken off the turf when discussing the issue.

let\'s keep an eye on the stats going forward.

[fasteddie]

Some observations:

There has been an unusually high number of grass-raced horses running on poly at Keeneland; could it be that horses with good turf-strides are better suited to this surface? As a side-benefit, the \"off-the-turf\" races WILL stay full; good for betting, and good for track handle, which leads to----

Handicapping?? I have found (so far) it\'s best to evaluate a poly race as if it were a grass race; i.e., fewer wire-jobs, and more stalker-closer types.

Throw out any horse who hasn\'t raced or trained on poly, AND hasn\'t tried the grass. Lone exception: in maiden races, give horses with strong grass pedigrees a long look!

[davidrex]

some really good ideas flowing on this subject....lets be in the forefront with polygraph #s.
wish I was observant enuf to contribute...but I know smart thinkers when I read their POSITIVE theories.