Polytrack and bounces/regressions

[Saddlecloth]

is there any stats that show the realitive bounces and regressions coming from horses running on this surface?

most claim, though I am dubious, that its like turf, and turf horses historically recover quicker with less bounces.  

[miff]

Saddle,

Be wary of anyone who thinks they \"know\" anything about Poly and how horses react coming off, going on etc.It\'s too soon for reasonable conclusions.Add to that, the reality that all poly surfaces are not the same and do not play the same. Lastly, at the whim of the track supers they can change the speed of those poly surfaces.

In the past, we had to watch path, wind, moisture etc(maybe we still do). Now it\'s alleged to be up to some track super.Inevitably, there will be some who will look to exploit the \"man made\" conditions of tracks that race on poly, maybe create a self serving bias.I hear it\'s possible.

Mike

[basket777]

I hear the sky is falling to.  

[miff]

Basket,


That\'s too and some believe the sky is also made of poly.


Mike

[Michael D.]

saddle,

i am in the camp of those who feel turf form/breeding holds up better on poly than dirt form/breeding.

just one guy\'s opinion.

[bellsbendboy]

Hey Mike

I treat poly as dirt free of bias.  The only trend I noticed over the opening weekend is that horses get very tired.  I made two bets of consequence; Untouched Talent and Street Sense.  Both were lengths the best but just got a bit winded. The former was outgamed by a 40-1 maiden and the latter was five paths wide the whole way. BBB

[NoCarolinaTony]

What I thought I saw over the weekend at Kee is that the races were run very similarly to turf races  in style, with jockeys all wanting to let th other guy take the lead, so you get a winner  Asi Siempre (turf horse) beating the likes of Happy Ticket and Spun Sugar closing with an explosive move, But sires like Trippi were winning as were Gone West lineage. They only had 1 wire to wire winner at Kee over the weekend on Poly and that horse had such a class edge over the field.

I would say that you can bet them like any other race, and that you cannot form an opinion on turf vs dirt sires or runner quite yet over the surface. Ive seen it go both ways. Dirt Horses beating good turf horses and good turf horses beating dirt horses. YOu can probably say you will see more turf horses win over this surface than traditional dirt.

NC Tony
 

[miff]

Hey Bell,

I\'m very uncomfortable gambling on Poly and just watching for now. I\'ll leave the \"pioneer\" bettors to sort out Poly racing. History recalls that the pioneers are normally found face down with an arrow in their back.

Good Luck

Mike

[NoCarolinaTony]

Some pioneers may have died,but some pioneers also found gold first.

(I\'m a miner forty niner)

NC Tony

[jmetro]

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
They only had 1 wire to
> wire winner at Kee over the weekend on Poly and
> that horse had such a class edge over the field.
>

I would imagine Keeneland\'s track super, or perhaps mother nature, will do something to give front end types a better chance the balance of the meet.

[Mall]

The Brisnet library contains two interesting articles on polytrack, by Tim Holland & Rich Nilsen, which discuss the breeding angle. Both are astute cappers & Tim, a former farm manager who is originally from England, knows more about breeding than any other handicapper I\'ve met.  

[fasteddie]

Poly is a brave new world; must be like racing in the old days as speed figures are practically usless right now. Some interesting developments as follows:


   10-6   Lordly (65.20) Turf-to-Poly
          Bel Air Beauty (96.80) Maiden w/Poly last race


   10-7   Fast Point (24.40) Poly last race
          Kelly\'s Landing (26.20) 4/28 breeze on Poly
          Great Hunter (13.60) 3/21 work on Hol. Poly


   10-8   Arteliaco (10.40) breeze on Poly
          Poschner (155.20) Turf-to-Poly
          Patricia (22.00) Turf-to-Poly
          Asi Siempre (11.00) Turf-to-Poly

Will be interesting to follow horses who use the Blue Grass as a Derby prep next year as you may find a in-form dirt horse who hates this stuff be a square price the first Sat. in May!!

[miff]

For those interested,I had previously read the articles on Poly which Mall referred to.One article disputes that turf runners or turf breds do better on poly with statistics showing just the opposite from a reasonable sample.Dirt bred runners did better.

It seems far too soon to be guided by anything but basic handicapping skills and accurate data.Whats new?

Mike

[Michael D.]

thanks Mall.

great stuff.

[TGJB]

Whether it turns out there is correlation with poly and turf form, or it\'s just a new (third) surface:

You have to wonder if those guys at Keeneland stopped to think about the ramifications for the breeding industry. If half the tracks go to poly, (for example) are the Mr. Prospector line stallions be worth as much?