The What Percent Solution

[richiebee]

... as in what percent of the posters on this board are so concerned with drugs in Racing (and cheating in Racing in general) that they would be willing to write a letter to NYRA or the CHRB, a letter which says in essence: \"You are licensing trainers who cheat, and licensing owners who condone this cheating, and I will no longer wager on your product.\"?

Or alternatively, a letter to the folks in Kentucky which says \"Your permissive medication rules have made a mockery of the integrity of racing, and I will no longer wager on your product\".

What about the \"Whales\"? Does anybody think the whales would be interested in writing such a letter and joining the boycott?

And what percent of letter writers would actually be able to abstain from wagering until Racing was clean? We are probably talking months and years here, not days and weeks.

Lots of moaning about the takeout. What if the takeout was increased, with the additional \"skim\" being devoted to the detection of illegal medications? This would put Steve Crist, the most vocal advocate of lowered takeouts, in a rough spot.

Never underestimate Vox Populi. I am convinced that the anti- war movement in the late 60s and early 70s ended our involvement in Vietnam 3 or 4 years earlier than it would have ended.(The youth of today, not threatened by a draft, are blissfully hooked into their IPODS, and could probably never be effectively mob- ilized against our current administration). OK, my flashback just ended.

Part of the problem is that the important voices which have spoken up against drug fueled racing (Jerry Brown, Steve Crist, Andy Beyer et al) would really(obviously) not want to see any sort of boycott.

My own view, stated too many times before, is that Cheating, whether it be drug fueled or otherwise, is part of the fabric of Racing. One Derby Day 20 or 25 years ago, the first race of the card, a 2YO maiden race, was won by a first time starter who paid a huge price. Upon further review, it was determined that
this first time starter actually had raced twice and that the Horse Identifier had been duped. (I actually think this happened twice at Churchill-- Larry Robideaux and Jerry Romans were the trainers involved).

The erstwhile Classhandicapper may have said it best. To paraphrase CH, \"I know who the cheaters are, and I take it into account when I handicap a race\". Let me add a corollary, \"If I am not certain if a trainer is a cheater, I will assume that he is.\"

[jbelfior]

richiebee---


Interesting points regarding abstaining from wagering until the game is cleaned up.

I very rarely play dirt races anymore; 95% of my plays are grass races. (IMO, the grass numbers generated by Thoro-Graph are second to none.) My theory is that I believe that the cheaters do not have the same edge in grass racing that they do on the dirt. I will not get into the reasons in this forum.

I do not have the stats on this, but I would bet that the Dutrows,Asmussens, Lakes, etc. of the racing world have a much lower win % on the grass than on dirt. The grass is where the real trainers (Mott, Clement,Motion), not the pharmacists, thrive.  

Thoughts??


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[marcus]

I get your point richiebee - but I\'m not confident however that many of these State Governors won\'t be reading the letters and laughing out loud w/ their pac casino buddy pals at their side ...

So far as those folks w/ ipods , they also now have credit cards and are part of a totally different set of societal circumstances - the Corporate Culture has very pervasive inflences into the fabric of racing , as it does with the general fabric of contemperary American society as well .

And as not to harsh anyone\'s mello , it\'s a dbl edge sword  - problems become exasserbated by technolgy while at the same time - the technology is also there now and available to provide a counter balance .  

It\'s doubtful that the Cororate Culture that is largrly responsible for racing\'s current situation would do much to change it -
 I belive that is \" What (percecnt ) \" is at the bottom of all this and why we\'re talking about it now on that coveted 7th day ...  

   

[richiebee]

JB:

   Absolutely agree with regard to TGs efficacy on the grass, and the fact that the \"usual suspects\" are not as prolific on grass as they are on dirt.

   With regards to grass racing I would add the following: While you may be avoiding some of the cheaters, I believe that you are encountering increased risks of awful trips (large fields, narrow courses) and irregularly paced races.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> The erstwhile Classhandicapper may have said it
> best. To paraphrase CH, \"I know who the cheaters
> are, and I take it into account when I handicap a
> race\". Let me add a corollary, \"If I am not
> certain if a trainer is a cheater, I will assume
> that he is.\"

I liked Class, but let me add another little CH anecdote that always made me chuckle:

\"Pletcher just has excellent stock and a very good training routine.\"

p.s. Absolutely agree with you on the grass variables Richie. Additionally on most cards there are fewer turf races run and pace variables can make the final figure unreliable as far as indicating how fast the horses were capable of.

That pace comment was anathema I know.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Richie ,

Do you really care that much about the issue? Does anyone really give a shit who bets horses regularly, really care that much to withold wagers?................................... Comon now..even our pearless leader who owns the product and loudest voice/advocate against the druggie trainers in the sport, goes out to the west coast,(ie drug trainer capital of the US) and wins a handicapping contest. Im sure he is very astute, and being a smart man, factored in the \"drug trainer factor\" into his handicapping  that weekend at DelMAr.

So lets not all be so hypocritical.  Either factor in what you you think you know (or speculate that you might know) and play the game.  \"or\"  not play the game based upon your personal ethics and standards. There really is no middle ground.

Put up or shut up.

I\'m playing no matter what factoring in the \"so called\" drug factor. Can\'t wait to now include the Synthetic/wax/Silica track factor next month.

I\'m having fun, how bout you?

NC Tony

[RICH]

Hey does anyone remember Oscar and Peter back in the day? You REALLY had to work around those guys back then. Somewhat similiar today, just more widespread.

[richiebee]

... don t forget the Gas man (G Moschera), carpet salesman turned leading trainer, who had quite a run until they busted his medicine man...

[basket777]

there you go     it is what it is

[RICH]

Yeah, forgot about him. In that corner, the G man, Oscar, and Pistol Pete. In this corner Dutrow, Pletcher, and the Ass man. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

[richiebee]

My Jesuit Pal NCT asked: \"Do you really care that much about the issue? Does anyone really give a [expletive deleted]who bets horses regularly really care that much to withold wagers?

No and No, NCT. But if my livelihood depended on the well being of Racing (ie breeder, trainer, publisher of racing publication or performance figures), I would want racing to heal itself, rather than wait for Draconian intervention on the part of the federal Government which TGJB has mentioned so many times.

Personally, I wouldn\'t care if they injected the horses in the paddock in full view of God and everybody. Probably would be the equivalent of what the SEC calls \"full disclosure\".

Your anxious anticipation of synthetic surfaces in California may be delayed; apparently the components of the new surface are delayed in transit somewhere near the Panama Canal. As to Keeneland, will love to see how Poly affects the handle.

I\'m going to Monmouth, your old stomping grounds, today. No choice, as all golf courses are fully submerged after recent rains.

Hey NCT, the hell with Racing. What I am excited about is #3 for the gang from Flushing. 30+ doubles, 20+ triples, 20+ dingers, 60+ steals, 80+ RBI, 300 or so Batting Average all within reach. Also an above average shortstop, although he doesn\'t have the range of Rey Ordonez. Beltran having an awesome year, but J. Rey is obviously the straw stirring the Mets drink right now.

[NoCarolinaTony]

I totally agree with you.

as for my Mets....Yes Mr Reyes (Jose\' Jose\' Jose\'..blah blah you now the soccer chant Ole\' et al) He is the most exciting player for sure. He is the straw that stirs the drink. Now if we can only get some starting pitching. UNC Charlotte\'s John Maine has contributed well, the steal of the Benson Trade.(maybe not Benson wife was nice to look at). And Beltan is playing like an MVP.

Heading up to the SPA tommorow and will certainly factor in the \"DRUG Trainer\" factor and hopefully win.

Anyone else going?

NC Tony

PS Tell me how Monmouth looks...and hope you win!!

[TGJB]

Tony-- a couple things:

1-- Agree with Bob on involving the authorities. That is indeed why we have a justice system-- the public doesn\'t have the resources or the power to enforce the law. A boycott might or might not be effective in the broad sense (depending on several factors, i.e. whether the industry is competent, aside from being motivated, and aside from being concerned about covering their asses), but individual trainers won\'t stop unless there is a cannon pointed at them.

2-- California is the place where they have tried the hardest to stop the drug guys. Things have varied from meet to meet (Hollywood didn\'t take it nearly as seriously as Santa Anita-- which I know both from looking at sheets and from talking to people involved-- and Del Mar has shut down all but maybe one guy). I spent a fair amount of time looking at that issue BEFORE I went out to that contest.

[Silver Charm]

So you actually Handicapped the Drug Controls before you went to Handicap the Races.

Man is this a crazy game nowadays.

[jbelfior]

Agreed, but in exchange you get the value.

As far as the inconsistent pace factor, I believe this product does a terrific job of producing numbers that the user can be confident in. With the tighter turns on the grass, wide trips come into play here more than on dirt. Looking at Beyer numbers for the grass are a waste of time. The other thing I look at is who consistently runs the best numbers at the distance of that day\'s race. While the different distances on the dirt certainly have their respective specialists, I believe this is even more prevalent on the turf.



PS: I\'m going to e-mail AccuWeather to find out if ERNESTO washes out the Spa weekend card. Just NYRA\'s luck to move the Woodward to Saratoga only to see it run in a sea of slop.


Good Luck,
Joe B.