Travers Rundown

[curly]

HesAnOldSalt -   Paired up his top and has developed finally from those 4s as a 2yo.  Last time he paired top efforts it took several races to get back into top form.  Il expect a slight regression off the pair and toss going the 1 and 1/4.

Minister\'s Bid -  Dont really like horses running too fast too early but has run big numbers.  That last 3 was in the slop so as long as its fast out there tommorow id say he comes back to a 0-2 effort.   Must use underneath.

Dr Pleasure -  Kinda like this one.  After those 77days off he came back to his 2yo top which was good.  And then paired again running in the slop.  To me his best chance to move forward was last time out but has never run the slop before so i\'ll give em another try to bust through a new top (hopefully several points)on a fast track.

High Cotton -  Has 7 weeks off the top effort and at best i say he pairs.  Has a good chance to go back though several points.  Kinda ify on him so i would use him lightly below.

Bernardini -  Horse is a monster and hasn\'t shown anything wrong yet. Raced big in the slop last out and has 28 days off and races 2nd time off the short layoff.  Trainer profile doesnt show a good percentage of horses that pair 2nd off the layoff so...I think he can race another top lets say neg 3.25?

Kip Deville -   I think I could throw Marcus on my back and we can run this race and beat this animal.  haha way too slow to be in here.

Bluegrass Cat -  Has been bery consistent but is coming off two top efforts.  Only has 20 days off now and i would def say he will regress a couple points.  Looks like a good race for the owners though cause this is a short field with a a few slow horses..the horse should be able to get about 3rd place or so and with the million dollar purse thats still a nice payday....for them. Il use lightly just like high cotton.


Break down -   This race kinda reminds me of the pacific classic..  looks like we can key the fastest horse Bernardini and still get nice prices for the ex/tri and supers.   Il key Bernardini and play dr plesure and ministers bid for second in the exacta..  then part key the tri and super with those two in second then for third and forth (super) those two along with bg cat and high cotton.  Good luck !!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Haven\'t seen Bernardini\'s TFigs yet and I\'ll post here and then look. That chronology may inure to the benefit of discussing his pending effort. O.k. here goes, heading to the ROTW, which is kinda like Christmas ain\'t it?

Three minutes later:

Ok, its about what I figured it would be. Now, why on shorter rest going longer distance shouldn\'t there be a regression here? He\'s a good horse. He may win, but why shouldn\'t he regress to a negative 1 or thereabouts? Maybe he can and win though. Will look more closely now.

20 minutes later a little more.

He\'s an old salt just looks a little slow to me. You\'re talking career top at a novel distance merely to compete.

Ministers Bid. Personally, I believe this is Wards best horse. As an immature horse running rank in his previous race he chased a lose on the lead Bernardini through the Saratoga Slop. Thats not a good recipe for overtaking a decent horse. To his credit he did finish again at the end. Have the distinct impression this horse is still learning and that last race was part of the experience. Clearly a horse with some ability and not gonna hold it against him at this early stage that he got out slop footed. Expect a substantially better effort Saturday.

Dr. Pleasure don\'t think the slop helped this horse either, but still think he\'s not as much horse as Ministers Bid.

High Cotton - Pletcher is here isn\'t he? When Deputy Glitters was right he beat the other Pletcher stable star. Pletcher must think this horse and his barn have a chance against Bernardini. Ya think?

Bernardini - Crown him prior to the race or crown him afterwards? He should be odds on. Anyone think he\'ll be even money or higher? Not enamored with the Jim Dandy slop romp primarly because it was slop. Has been a big margin winner in the past, but have to take note of that erratic stretch run in the Preakness. First question one has to ask oneself is will he see the same early race development he saw in the Jim Dandy?, i.e. loose on the lead slop. Second question would have to be did the Jim Dandy tax him? Did he run through the race?

Kip Deville - This is the early race leader. The question is how far can he carry it. This horse is very very quick.

Blue Grass Cat - Finished 2nd in the worst Belmont I\'ve ever handicapped. Refused to even bet it. Followed that up with a big score in the weakest field Haskell I\'ve ever seen. If Bernardini can\'t come through does the race fall by default to this one? Don\'t count on it. He was about even with Deputy Glitters on that one\'s A cycle too. Lastly see that Haskell Negative 1, but am not sold it was in that range.






curly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> HesAnOldSalt -   Paired up his top and has
> developed finally from those 4s as a 2yo.  Last
> time he paired top efforts it took several races
> to get back into top form.  Il expect a slight
> regression off the pair and toss going the 1 and
> 1/4.
>
> Minister\'s Bid -  Dont really like horses running
> too fast too early but has run big numbers.  That
> last 3 was in the slop so as long as its fast out
> there tommorow id say he comes back to a 0-2
> effort.   Must use underneath.
>
> Dr Pleasure -  Kinda like this one.  After those
> 77days off he came back to his 2yo top which was
> good.  And then paired again running in the slop.
> To me his best chance to move forward was last
> time out but has never run the slop before so i\'ll
> give em another try to bust through a new top
> (hopefully several points)on a fast track.
>
> High Cotton -  Has 7 weeks off the top effort and
> at best i say he pairs.  Has a good chance to go
> back though several points.  Kinda ify on him so i
> would use him lightly below.
>
> Bernardini -  Horse is a monster and hasn\'t shown
> anything wrong yet. Raced big in the slop last out
> and has 28 days off and races 2nd time off the
> short layoff.  Trainer profile doesnt show a good
> percentage of horses that pair 2nd off the layoff
> so...I think he can race another top lets say neg
> 3.25?
>
> Kip Deville -   I think I could throw Marcus on my
> back and we can run this race and beat this
> animal.  haha way too slow to be in here.
>
> Bluegrass Cat -  Has been bery consistent but is
> coming off two top efforts.  Only has 20 days off
> now and i would def say he will regress a couple
> points.  Looks like a good race for the owners
> though cause this is a short field with a a few
> slow horses..the horse should be able to get about
> 3rd place or so and with the million dollar purse
> thats still a nice payday....for them. Il use
> lightly just like high cotton.
>
>
> Break down -   This race kinda reminds me of the
> pacific classic..  looks like we can key the
> fastest horse Bernardini and still get nice prices
> for the ex/tri and supers.   Il key Bernardini and
> play dr plesure and ministers bid for second in
> the exacta..  then part key the tri and super with
> those two in second then for third and forth
> (super) those two along with bg cat and high
> cotton.  Good luck !!
>
>
>

[richiebee]

Travers:

Heisanoldsalt--In the old days, before Beyers were published, before I dabbled in performance figures, I might have looked at this one\'s breeding (to me, as good as any in this race for 10 furlongs) and his extensive foundation and said \"If something silly happens up front, if the race falls apart, he is the one who could benefit\". That being said, he is slower than the rest and has had no impact in his graded stakes tries.

Minister\'s Bid -- eligible for N2x, but when you spend 750K for a yearling, you really can\'t afford to run him through his conditions.

Dr. Pleasure--eligible for NW2Lt.

High Cotton--In the old days, before Beyers were published, before I dabbled in performance figures, I might have looked at this one and said \"Here\'s the one that can press the favorite or take the front if the favorite doesn\'t want it\". Gomez 2 for 2 on this one. If he can put any type of pressure on Bernardini, he greatly helps the cause of his uncoupled barnmate.

Bernardini-- DRF comment for last race was \"Galloped under wraps\"; brought to mind \"Speed to spare\" which was the comment after one of Ruffian\'s brilliant races. The 3 easy 5 furlong works since the Jim Dandy show a lot of confidence on the part of trainer Albertrani in the condition of this colt and his ability to get 10 furlongs.

Kip Deville-- Dutrow says he will scratch if no one else does.

Bluegrass Cat--Steady and almost boring, probably needs High Cotton\'s help to have a chance for the upset. Mainly because of his decent Derby run, his recent consistency and his chance for further improvement, this might be my BC Classic \"wise guy\" selection.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Travers:
>
> Heisanoldsalt--In the old days, before Beyers were
> published, before I dabbled in performance
> figures, I might have looked at this one\'s
> breeding (to me, as good as any in this race for
> 10 furlongs) and his extensive foundation and said
> \"If something silly happens up front, if the race
> falls apart, he is the one who could benefit\".
> That being said, he is slower than the rest and
> has had no impact in his graded stakes tries.
>
> Minister\'s Bid -- eligible for N2x, but when you
> spend 750K for a yearling, you really can\'t afford
> to run him through his conditions.
>
> Dr. Pleasure--eligible for NW2Lt.
>
> High Cotton--In the old days, before Beyers were
> published, before I dabbled in performance
> figures, I might have looked at this one and said
> \"Here\'s the one that can press the favorite or
> take the front if the favorite doesn\'t want it\".
> Gomez 2 for 2 on this one. If he can put any type
> of pressure on Bernardini, he greatly helps the
> cause of his uncoupled barnmate.
>
> Bernardini-- DRF comment for last race was
> \"Galloped under wraps\"; brought to mind \"Speed to
> spare\" which was the comment after one of
> Ruffian\'s brilliant races. The 3 easy 5 furlong
> works since the Jim Dandy show a lot of confidence
> on the part of trainer Albertrani in the condition
> of this colt and his ability to get 10 furlongs.
>
> Kip Deville-- Dutrow says he will scratch if no
> one else does.
>
> Bluegrass Cat--Steady and almost boring, probably
> needs High Cotton\'s help to have a chance for the
> upset. Mainly because of his decent Derby run, his
> recent consistency and his chance for further
> improvement, this might be my BC Classic \"wise
> guy\" selection.
>


Richie, I\'ve watched that Preakness enough to know it fell apart. Even Sweetnorthernsaint was all used up on the pace duel. It literally fell into Bernardini\'s hands.

Then he comes back in the slop at the Spa and looks like a world beater. Lots of horses look impressive in the spa slop. Two big wins, perhaps two very fortutitous scenarios to make him look even better than he actually is.

Now Tgraph says those two efforts are darn near negative threes. Well, maybe they are, but lets see him repeat that number at 10 poles on a dry track. I don\'t think hes gonna get near a negative three this time.

[marcus]

- Bluegrass\'s pattern isn\'t one you see very often for a trpl crown horse , it almost reminds me of a horse\'s 4 yo line ( alot ).

Pre negative numbers era didn\'t have lynguistical short comings of calling  - 2.75 ,  a minus negative 3 or 3 neg minus but that pre speed figure era or pre tote really does take the ( Bluegrass ) Cats Meow .  

Once I met Tom Ainsle at a TG seminar and we talked off to the side about that pre tote era and how people figured out the DD pay offs etc - you pre speed figure guys really know your stuff ...

Lot\'s of racing abroad online these days - do we see any TG Fig\'s coming for S.A. , U.K. ? I say no , keep the edge and the money here in North America .

Lots of rain in Brooklyn this morning - probably Upstate too  . I\'m going to a bbq in the Rockaways today to watch the races ( becouse now apparently I have the day off )  and I hope the gangs and cops aren\'t around too much so I can surf fish later in the \'70\'s ( if thats belivable )   ...

I don\'t think rain or track conditions will change race outcomes for winners in the Travers and King Bishop today .

Any you guys get \" blessed \" by a Bishop lately ?  I did - by order and decree of my family and of \" His Emenence \" Himself ...