rotw

[marcus]

i think everything is ok w/ rotw , no specific wagering strategies are given out and the race overview address\'s basic ability of the horse\'s , form cycle and value in an academic sense and context of sheet reading  . your a tuff  customer ctc - belive me , if that horse paid $ 80 , somebody would still have an axe to grind and raggies probably would be crashing the board saying they would still rather have bet the favorite who lost than to bet those types of horse\'s that he put up - right ?   tonite it\'s \" the crimson tide \" and not \" the deacon blues \" for Al and the rotw ...  i really belive jerry\'s rotw post earlier this evening is right on  and \" props \" are now in order ...

[NoCarolinaTony]

Richie...

We could have even factored in the torential downpours and all. Would have been intersting to see everyone scramble with scratches and surface changes and all... At the SPA that also is a possibility on a couple of days... MAy want to get those ground rules set before it happens. Im sure no one will agree on how to deal with it as it happens.

NC Tony

[richiebee]

I had wanted to post on how, as a known curmudgeonly racing traditionalist, I was kind of offended by Calder\'s planned \"Extreme\" day of racing.

Although it is good that some folks at Calder are using their imagination, I can not see how these \"extreme\" events would appeal to current racing fans or draw the attention of any new fans.

Kind of an unfortunate \"sublime to the ridiculous\" scenario with this Extreme day following closely behind the \"Summit of Speed\", which Calder management has developed into a significant racing event of national importance.

Seeing as how the weather did not cooperate with Calder\'s \"Extreme\" scheme, its possible that the \"Racing Gods\" were also offended.

[spa]

CtC....if you think this ROTW was a nice bit of handicapping, you must think the Mona Lisa is a pretty painting. The handicapping was brilliant.......Can\'t Beat It had a poor trip, he tried to follow the 1 thru the hole but both were stopped. If only the 1 hits the board..................

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

spa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CtC....if you think this ROTW was a nice bit of
> handicapping, you must think the Mona Lisa is a
> pretty painting. The handicapping was
> brilliant.......Can\'t Beat It had a poor trip, he
> tried to follow the 1 thru the hole but both were
> stopped. If only the 1 hits the
> board..................

I didn\'t see the race...it was Turf after all. Sometimes you make a Great bet and only get the minor award. It still beats losing.

Read the chart and saw that \"Can\'t Beat It\" was steadied. Read the 1 horse hung, but they don\'t always get it right.

congrats

[jbelfior]

The rail horse had no excuse. More money burned by one of the great overrated trainers of all time---Dermot Weld.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[ezgoer89]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The rail horse had no excuse. More money burned by
> one of the great overrated trainers of all
> time---Dermot Weld.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.

Huh?  Two Melbourne Cups (only Northern Hemisphere trainer to win), Vinnie Roe wins FOUR straight St. Legers, off the top of my head I know he\'s won the Matriarch, American Oaks, American Derby, Tattersalls Gold Cup, 2000 Guineas, 1000 Guineas, Flower Bowl, Irish Derby, Belmont, Jim Murray... and I\'m certain there\'s more.

Is he supposed to win 100% of the time?  Geez... he\'s a sportsman willing to ship anywhere in the world to take a shot at a big prize whether it\'s Europe, America, Asia, or Australia.

[jbelfior]

I understand that he has an impressive resume. By overrated, I was implying that his horses get way overbet IN THIS COUNTRY.  

Personally, I\'ve never caught the guy and have watched a slew of his imports crash and burn at low odds.  

To add another point....I nail the tri if he runs at least 3rd ( yes,I\'m pissed!!!)
 

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[marcus]

the euro\'s a very talented horse - you know he\'s moving forward saturday , but how much ? w / a very good trip , even a small top of 1 - 2 pts might get him in the tri ...

[Ill-bred]

Excellent analysis of the American Derby. I hit a saver exacta box, largely thanks to the ROTW.

Great job.

The winner was an example of one of my favorite speed figure plays -- a top figure horse that is being ignored at the windows.

[P-Dub]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> He did mention four horses. He certainly didn\'t
> mention boxing them all. Reading the \"Bottom Line\"
> it appears his major play was Can\'t Beat It, the
> second place horse. He listed three other horses
> that \"intrigued\". The last one mentioned of the
> three was the longest odds and won. Assuming one
> gives him credit for a four horse box he
> essentially took a 132-1 perfecta and converted it
> to approximately 10-1. Thats assuming he didn\'t
> Trifecta bet or win bet on the Value Horse. Or in
> other words, picking the winner would have
> returned substantially more than giving credit for
> the spread.
>


Why would you assume he would play a 4 horse box?? Why weight all horses equally?? Wouldn\'t a more likely play use his key in exacta boxes with the 3 \"intriguing\" horses??  If he did play a 4 horse box, playing additional exactas using his key horse would also be a play,  substantially increasing the overall odds. Your assumed betting strategy for this race is puzzling.

Additionally, if one were to make an odds line based on Alan\'s analysis,  is there any doubt that a win bet could have been placed on the winner?? He was clearly a contender,  anyone reading Alan\'s analysis could easily see this.  He also stated that several horses were withing a couple lengths of each other.  So if this is true,  you wouldn\'t make a win bet on a contender\'s inflated win odds??  If you would have told Alan that one of his horses would be 23-1, he probably would have had some sort of win ticket on him.


\"Still it was a pretty nice piece of handicapping. But it was Turf and next time the same horses will change that finishing order up entirely\"

And this is relevant why???  Who friggin cares about next time?? What matters is THIS time,  and THIS time he had the exacta and probably a win ticket too. Your backhanded compliment aside, its apparent you struggle to give anyone credit unless it is your opinion too. Thanks for the nice score Alan.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Why would you assume he would play a 4 horse box??
> Why weight all horses equally?? Wouldn\'t a more
> likely play use his key in exacta boxes with the 3
> \"intriguing\" horses??

Perhaps. If I was high on Can\'t Beat It something similar would have been my bet. In fact may have only bet 4 or 5 combinations, which means selective boxing. That will burn you every now and then, but betting that way means you\'re confident in your assessment of the horses pending efforts. Just didn\'t see that level of confidence in the Bottom Line discussion and assigned what I believed was reasonable from that discussion.

But rather than me speculating about the number of combinatons and you giving credit for a more precise bet, why don\'t we just ask Alan to tell us what he cashed the race at. I.E. 132-1....3-1....whatever. If you cashed that race and feel the urge to volunteer your odds cashed go head.

It was nice handicapping, but I read posts considering it a Major Award and after review, I just didn\'t see it that way. Maybe the next time doesn\'t matter. But if a field is prone to mix it up thats one reason why its hard to make precise bets and its a reason why the boxing of combinations may have been extensive. Maybe I\'m wrong. Maybe I shouldn\'t have posted upon it.

If I didn\'t congratulate Alan specifically enough...Congrats, darn near spot on.