rotw

[marcus]

nice call on the rotw ! as far as a betting race goes - \" you can\'t beat it \".  also , i\'m considering a tri/spr key 1x4 with icy + union along w/ golden arrow / storm treasure  underneath and possibly  tri + ex boxes 3x  w/o the later 2   ...

[NoCarolinaTony]

Gee I was Hoping You\'d Pick the 2F Race at Calder...damn....

NC Tony

[spa]

Let it rain.....only difference for me would demand Outperformace be used in all gimmicks. This could be huge payday!

[richiebee]

NCT:

  I am kind of surprised that you haven\'t proposed that the TG v Rags showdown be held on a winner take all basis on Extreme Day

[marcus]

spa - hadn\'t thought about rain  . there aren\'t to many horse\'s in the race that have displayed off track ability on dirt or have A-1 off track breeding and no exceptional trainer angle\'s for off tracks ( dirt ) to go with - Dessert Wheat ran an effort @ 2 yo on a sloppy dirt track  . i suppose Storm Treasure moves up a bit if the race is taken off the turf and Can\'t Beat It ran a top on dirt earlier in the season   ...  

[spa]

Marcus..last thing I want is the race off the turf. I want it soft. Everything points to Golden Arrow running his eyeballs out. Hope the boy doesn\'t fall off.

[marcus]

spa -  i always have difficulty interpeting development and patterns for euros -  it\'s much different than their north american counterparts ... i\'ll say this   though , golden arrow\'s the kind of horse that scare\'s me a bit ... if i can\'t cash tomorrow , then let it be you - go for it !    

[davidrex]

Golden Arrow has european #s(how accurate?),but that aside,trtainer wins this race and choosing an animal that could improve with Lasix just might be his bag.

If Murch ever finds his way out of the gate along w/an improving line,the 8 wks. since new top,m.l. 30/1-got to gamble for a small reward

Can\'t Beat It will be my key for all reasons stated in t.g. review

Stream Catwill be involved w/exotics.Funny but for Murch to get in ,horses like this one must regress.think I\'ll take a shot and only play him as saver.

Union Ave. is another that has never regressed.At 12/1 I\'d just be spiting myself to throw out .Will use VERY sparingly in lower positions of exotics.

3/1289/1289
1,3/12389/12389
1,3/1,3/1289/1289

more to follow

[Silver Charm]

Violette is the bet.

[davidrex]

ok...singling the 3...exotics3w1/3/8...looking for a little bitesaver will only be 1x3w1x3w28,  and 1x3 w2x8 exacta,1x3 ex.

[Silver Charm]

The winner was definitely usable in race where you couldn\'t use them all. Particularly at that price.

Not sure where Violettes horse finished, if he even has as of now.

There will be other chances.

[TGJB]

Alan did ROTW, and this should shut people up for a while (key ran second, one of only 3 others he mentioned in Bottom Line won, $266 exacta covers ROTW for a couple of months). I myself did just okay, but if the 12 got third, fugitaboutit.

[flushedstraight]

especially considering the handicap of doing the Bottom Line while relying on the morning line to evaluate the value; the four mentioned...

Can't Beat it   ml 20-1  off 6-1
Golden Arrow    ml 8-1   off 3-1
Storm Treasure  ml 8-1   off 9-1
Union Avenue    ml 12-1  off 23-1

as far as I\'m concerned, after adjusting for actual price Alan had this absolutely nailed; the only thing he didn\'t do was mention how hot Mott is

[marcus]

I agree - Allen\'s been doing an excellent job w / the ROTW !!!! People can learn alot from his analysis - I have and others should as well .
 I did ok enough on the race to go to the new Fairway on Van Brunt and take care of this weeks groceries - thanks !    
That Dmr stretch is starting reminding me of OP a little ....

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

marcus Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I agree - Allen\'s been doing an excellent job w /
> the ROTW !!!! People can learn alot from his
> analysis - I have and others should as well .
>  I did ok enough on the race to go to the new
> Fairway on Van Brunt and take care of this weeks
> groceries - thanks !    
> That Dmr stretch is starting reminding me of OP a
> little ....

He did mention four horses. He certainly didn\'t mention boxing them all. Reading the \"Bottom Line\" it appears his major play was Can\'t Beat It, the second place horse. He listed three other horses that \"intrigued\". The last one mentioned of the three was the longest odds and won. Assuming one gives him credit for a four horse box he essentially took a 132-1 perfecta and converted it to approximately 10-1. Thats assuming he didn\'t Trifecta bet or win bet on the Value Horse. Or in other words, picking the winner would have returned substantially more than giving credit for the spread.

Still it was a pretty nice piece of handicapping. But it was Turf and next time the same horses will change that finishing order up entirely. However Wonder Lady Ann L or Pine Island will win the Coaching Club of America Oaks every time those horses run it.