"Overlay at 1-9"

[P-Dub]

Go back to the other board and quit wasting our time.

What exactly are you trying to prove?? Is there a Rag party this weekend that you will be the life of?? Get a life dude.

[richiebee]

TGAB and NCT correct to point out that Barclay Tagg (and to a lesser extent Vinnie Blengs) were top drawer shipping turf runners into NYRA tracks in the late 80s early 90s.

Quite a bit of rain here last night, but would expect that the Belmont feature will be run over a course on the firm side of good.

NCT-- Will you be walking the turf course at Colonial to give your TG pals an accurate account of course condition?

Note to Diamond Joe: I honestly do not think Len needs to be defended on this board; I would say that most posters here respect his handicapping skills. TGJB has to take his occasional shot because it\'s good \"bidness\" and above all else, TGJB is a \"bidnessman\". You seem too well spoken to fall in with the knuckle scraping Greek chorus which derives more joy from a ROTW analysis which tanks than from having a winner on their own.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The winner of the 4th at Belmont was coming off
> the X rail.Dutrow off good spacing, signature
> works, dead rail in last and 8-1.Sometimes slower
> fig runners have other big angles going in.
>
>
> Mike

Did Tgraph subsequently assign an X rail?

I\'ve cashed four races now with X rail on May 5th as my hypothesis. Actually thats not true. My hypothesis is NOT X rail ...it is O wide.

[miff]

Chuck,

Dead rail on the 5th but not on the 6th.


Mike

[diamond-joe]

   The extensive analysis that you took the time to type up is really the only kind of analysis I\'m interested in. I don\'t look for someone else to tell me how to play races, just enjoy reading someone else\'s take on the various entries. But it\'s pretty clearly hypocritical to rip Len for doing the same thing he posts on his own site, regardless of who\'s doing the analysis. Of course, like Richie(?) said, I guess everything he posts is just his sales pitch. Which is too bad, really. I would think his product good enough to sell without the WWF routine, but maybe I\'m wrong.

   Good luck in the race, TGAB, and I hope you clean up.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> Dead rail on the 5th but not on the 6th.
>
>
> Mike

my bad, i meant the 6th where outside was advantaged. The dead rail on the 5th was not even debateable.  Thought the race you were speaking of could be added to the list.

[marcus]

so right p-dub , besides let len do his own talking . if dj is family or friends or in business with len - ok whatever , we all have are own stories to tell .  

but still , on TG the 1-9 shot\'s pattern was lousey none the less and the big question was IF the horse would be able to run the big number .
I still don\'t know who won , but i\'d guess it was the rail horse ...    

[diamond-joe]

.... other handicapping tools can't?\"




 This is the kind of thing I\'m talking about.



Bottom Line—Stream Cat is vulnerable favorite. He concedes weight to several faster
horses and although he has a good pattern and could win, he is an underlay and worth
taking a shot against. Second choice Go Between is solid but shows a tendency to run
wide and could do so again from the outside post. Third choice Kid Deville is fastest, has
speed, but enters off a big top and has distance questions. Fourth choice Showing Up is
somewhat of an unknown. Frankly we have no strong convictions as to a winner, but in
this situation, where the first four all exhibit some vulnerability we're inclined to hunt for
prices. Outperformance, Can't Beat It, Roman Dynasty satisfy this pursuit and I'm going
throw in Prime Diamond for a little piece because at times I'm irrational.




  Not doing this to beat up on you, TGAB, just trying to decipher Jerry\'s comments about betting against the public. Frankly, you should post here more, and stick to this style of ROTW analysis. I think Jerry would be doing his business a favor by ceding most of the spokesperson duties to someone like yourself, but it\'s his business.

  On to the analysis of the analysis. Excluding your bomber hunch play who finished last, although, if he had run well we\'d be hearing about it forever, you gave favorable mention to 7 of 14 horses. This happened to coincide almost exactly with the half of the field that the public liked, in no particular order, and the public picking the winner. This was the Race Of The WEEK. The whole WEEK. 4 of the top 5 morning line choices ran 1-4, with the one anomaly being the unexpected ballooning up of the first Dutrow.

   Why are people supposed to buy Thorograph, again? To take big prices on 9/2 ml first Dutrow? If you\'re going to claim to produce a better product, and use it against the public, then you should step up to the plate, bet against the public, and do so successfully. I\'m pretty sure if your ROTW came up with a $170 exacta, rather than $13, it would be posted on the front page for eternity.

   Again, don\'t take this personally, TGAB. I think it was a pretty good analysis, and I hope you got the combos right on the huge first Dutrow value.

[diamond-joe]

  Last I remember, I was having a discussion with Jerry Brown. I don\'t know how you two busybodies got involved. Are you his agents, or something like that?

  I\'m pretty sure Jerry can address any posts I make on his own, especially since he invited me to go over those ROTWs. But don\'t worry too much, Jerry seemed to make some veiled threat about banning all previous Raggies that posted here, in the past, so I\'m sure I\'ll be gone soon, one way or the other, if not just from boredom, and you\'ll be safe here in your virtual basement from the harsh light of reality.

[diamond-joe]

That part was funny.

[TGAB]

We makes odds plays based on the morning line just like Friedman did with Bernardini and sometimes we lose and are just plain wrong but we don\'t gve out odds-on horses let alone ones that lose.

Jerry will be back on Monday and I\'m sure he\'ll respond.  

[diamond-joe]

 What do you call the Arkansas Derby ROTW? Again, that was the Race Of The WEEK. Frankly, if that big chalk at Mth had such a bad pattern, Jerry wouldn\'t have needed 10-1 on his best play to beat it, and it would have made a great ROTW. Like I have been saying, it would seem to me that you\'d want to show some results on your own board before ripping your competitors (to be generous to you) for having the gall of having a bad result. How far back do I have to look in the ROTW archive to find a $170 exacta, or any result that\'s better than some DRF handicapper, for that matter? Jerry embarrasses himself with these ridiculous threads, and whether they say so or not, I\'m pretty sure nearly everyone here realizes it.

[marcus]

jerry allows many of us \"busy\" folks - and others like yourself dj ,  to post on the TG ask the experts page / forum , and subsequently on this thread which jerry himself started ... even on a dare , i wouldn\'t crash the rag board out of respect for everybody .
 
** finally , the one thing w/ the 1-9 shot , amoung others is , that it would have been imprudent ( unless a big price ) to use that horse given the \"pattern \" if one was looking at the race with TG #\'s , you can agree with that - right ?

[diamond-joe]

marcus Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> jerry allows many of us \"busy\" folks - and others
> like yourself dj ,  to post on the TG ask the
> experts page / forum , and subsequently on this
> thread which jerry himself started ... even on a
> dare , i wouldn\'t crash the rag board out of
> respect for everybody .
>  
> ** finally , the one thing w/ the 1-9 shot ,
> amoung others is , that it would have been
> imprudent ( unless a big price ) to use that horse
> given the \"pattern \" if one was looking at the
> race with TG #\'s , you can agree with that - right
> ?
 

That would be the difference between us, I have no respect for Jerry Brown, and it\'s primarily due to threads like this one. That would also be the difference between you and Jerry, as he routinely used to crash the Ragozin board, advertising his product on their stage, until they were forced to go to a registration only board to block the spam. Considering the circumstances, I don\'t think I\'m putting him out by confining my comments to a single thread on his ROTW which he invited me to examine.


As for that big 2/5(?) chalk, even after the race has been run Jerry can\'t spin that one. He meekly waited until the race was over to venture a comment, and the horse looks like a 2/5 on his product, just like it must have looked like a 2/5 on DRF and probably Sheets. Even after the race was run, Jerry admits he would\'ve needed 10-1 on his next best pick to try and beat him. Going forward, I would encourage all you guys to beat the 2/5 horses before they run, as about 11/12 of that horse\'s last races would have won that one on Thorograph.

I think I already covered the approach I take on this kind of horse 2 or 3 times in this thread, so I\'d hate to waste more of your time. But, since you ask, I generally either play against very short ones, or try to value around them. Or pass, of course. Although, I don\'t have anyone asking me to find some kind of play on Father\'s Day.

A couple good examples that come immediately to mind would be a turf stake at CD last weekend, and the most recent Breeders Cup sprint. The CD race featured a big Biancone chalk who had one very fast race showing in this country and figured to be very tough to beat, but there was maybe some value underneath, particularly in a 20-1 Romans entry who looked pretty mediocre in the Form. He had very low Beyers, and had barely escaped the maiden ranks, so he had at least 2 strikes against him from the DRF handicapper\'s point of view, but looked good against the rest of the field on The Sheets, if a little slow vs the big chalk. He ended up a ridiculous 60-1, when he probably should have been 4 or 5-1, and ran third to that big chalk and an underlaid 2nd chalk Pletcher sporting an excellent pattern. It was a fairly pedestrian trifecta, and certainly not what I was shooting for, but I managed to squeeze a little out of the short horse who had the stick out fig(s).

The Breeders Cup sprint featured some very fast chalk who everyone told me was a lock. I think one of your regulars has some comment on him, maybe. On The Sheets, he was VERY fast, but had the unfortunate timing to run a big neg fig in his previous race, setting himself up for a reaction, and giving me some value if I picked the right ones to beat him. I didn\'t have much opinion on the exotics within the race, so I used 2 (or was it 3?) horses in this one to beat him in the middle leg of a pretty good pick 3, singling a big value Frankel in the first leg.

So, these are examples of how I try to dredge value from the gimmicks on the strong chalks, and try to find value betting aginst the weak chalks using The Sheets. You might note in this post that Len\'s getting lynched on, that he makes mention of trying to find similar value underneath, on what looked like a very strong chalk. I could also give you examples of races where I passed, or got beat, but those aren\'t as memorable to me.

[mandown]

Dave/Soup/Diamond-Joe

If you\'re not one and the same then the Koreans are behind the curve in trying to clone humans. Anyone who thinks \'Hehehehehe\' or \'Hmmmmmm\' etc is a telling debating point obviusly lacks something in the grey matter department. Hard to beleive that there are two of you Raggies that are equally that mentally-challenged. On the other hand . . .

And while you\'re here can you run that quarter-point condition move stuff by us again? Len\'s figures are really that accurate are they? Plus or minus an eighth of a point? That\'s snake oil and anyone with half a brain would know it. Your view is?

I admire your loyalty but you\'re making a fool of yourself. That latest post on Handicapping short prices was absolute tosh.

Regards,

George