Belmont Undercard--neg#'s

[brokerstip]

Been a lot of discussion about 3yos and negative numbers.
Saturday Undercard Race #8 ----I think this race is interesting.

Part I)
I am staring at Too Much Bling\'s sheet as I write.
The #1 hole with a big NEG number off a season opening pairup at the 2 1/4 , 2 1/2 level

Part II)  The #2 horse LIKELY hit a neg # 2nd lifetime start as a 3yo, and reacted (careful how you use the word bounce in these parts...lol) to a 4 with a trouble line.

Part III) The #5 horse KEYED ENTRY also went neg his 2nd start as a 3yo, reacted twice and then x\'d.

Part IV) the #9 horse Songster went Negative  for the 1st time in his last race.

I\'m ommitting Saint Daimon from the discussion though he ran a \'0\' in his last and that is not negative....but very very close.

I think this race offers a lot in terms of how one approaches these types of patterns.
I am not sure how I will play the race since I have over 24 hours to figure it all out. Since I will be on track tomorrow, I should have plenty of time between races to screw it up.

I would be interested in how some of the \'pattern\' oriented sheetplayers are \"assessing\" this race......especially from the standpoint of the two very impressive winners Songster and Too Much Bling and their two very negative numbers.

My initial reaction is naturally to play against the 2 recent negatives and try to get Likely or Keyed Entry to run back to their previous tops. Might mix in the Dutrow horse and the Beattie horse (never gone backwards)...  

That\'s just my intial and rather indecisive thought at the moment.

Bob

[richiebee]

These are kind of lightly raced horses... makes pattern analysis more difficult, no?

TMB has had 60 days since his big effort.

Likely\'s negative number was at Kee. Can you say Sinister Minister?

Of course KE \"x\'d, thats what happens when you run a miler in the Derby. Maybe the horse in the race helped most by possible wet conditions.

Saint Daimon fascinates me. Jerkens won this race with Take It Out a few years ago, beating Baffert\'s odds on Flame Thrower, I think. Noel Wynter rode for the Chief and Hobeau Farm that day. SD as a 2YO loved to run on the inside. I can see him coming up the rail if the pacesetters take the turn wide. Multiple wet winner, multiple Belmont winner, he\'ll be on my P4 ticket at 10- 12/1. Fun fact: he ran against Bluegrass Cat and Sunriver in his first 2 lifetime starts. Win lose or draw, expect a Jean Luc magical mystery tour.

[brokerstip]

Sd was also entered in today\'s 10th MTO.

As far as lightly raced, my understanding of the study was 3yo\'s (that\'s this group) going negative and the response to that negative effort??  

Werent\'t all the Brother Derek\'s, Sinister Minister\'s, Barbaro\'s somewhat lightly raced??

Bob

[NoCarolinaTony]

For what it\'s worth on Likely, That horse reacted or bounced against older horses in last. His Race at keeneland was an ultra impressive race in that he made his move on the turn and blew the field away in what may have been the fastest sprint race of the meet. In otherwords he didn\'t win in the typical Keeneland fashion wire to wire and rail trip.

To be honest it was one of the most visually impressive races I\'ve seen by a young horse in quite some time. Also for what it was worth, the Hoprse opened up at 3-5 that day and floated up to 5-1.

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

Richie,

This horses race was nothing like Sin Min at all. Watch it on Race Replays if you have it.

NC Tony

[richiebee]

SD was scratched from today\'s engagement according to NYRA website.

Yes you can take 30 or so 3YOs and make a \"study\" of how they react to negative numbers; you can make whatever conclusion from that study that you may. However, each of these 30 or so 3YOs has probably gone negative only once in their career. My point is that I would much rather see how a horse who has gone negative 2 or 3 times in his career reacts than to look at a study of a number of horses who have only posted one negative number.

I think the half mile fraction in tomorrow\'s race is more important than some contrived pattern \"analysis\". If they cut out a half under 45 seconds, and the 2 primary speeds and the 2 secondary speeds are within a length or so of that pace, Likely (who has been burning up (melting?) the Polyester track in the morning but picks up 10 pounds), SD and maybe Doc Cheney can pick up the pieces at a price.

[miff]

NC Tony,


I did not see the race but a sharp trip guy told me that Likely had a \"nightmare trip\" in his last race.


Mike

[brokerstip]

It\'s 6am and I am leaving Pa. or my brother\'s home in Bergen County (where I was sired and broken).

Let me refine my question:

Who is keying either Bling or Songster?
In light of the study....why?

Thanks for any replies and the info on Likely.
Richie...I defintely appreciate your thoughts on multiple negatives ...I was just trying to get some dialogue going before the fact on a race that features two very fast 3yo\'s that may or may not bounce.
Just an aside, Ben Perkins shipped in a 1st time Negative # yesterday and he bit the dust in an uninspiring scratched down 4 horse field.  

Thanks

Bob who is going with his brother John.