Handicapping/Gambling Question for Jerry

[Silver Charm]

Have held off on this one for about two weeks, at least since Preakness Day. The big days where I am downloading multi-sets, playing as many as 4-6 different tracks are becoming difficult to plan.

I have a non-horseracing 9-5 day job which doesn\'t allow me to watch races, read the form, or study the numbers for what will be one fast paced hectic day. Usually from the hours of 3:30-6:30 its is tough to be aware of what races are coming at you next, pre-post time odds, multi-race wagering opportunities or in general just what in the hell is going on sometimes.

If your standard wagering unit is $50 or $500 it is not uncommon to have as many as four of these going over a ten-fifteen minute span, not even counting pick-threes. Losses can create severe stress or downright panic.

Should the night before be spent handicapping plays that look good, which this alone can take as much as four hours and looking at as many as 50 races. And then the next day spent observing conditions, wagering and trying to enjoy the afternoon while making a little money. A 10-15 hour commitment is a considerable amount of spare time for me but I am beginning to believe this is what it may take.

Help.......

[P-Dub]

SC,
I am in the same boat as you. I now work a swing shift (3pm - mid/1am) and on big days will often take the night off.

I find that I do much better when I handicap the races beforehand.  As you stated, there is simply too many races going off in a short period of time to make an educated wager. Multi race wagers are impossible if you haven\'t done your homework beforehand.

Most of my work is done before I get to the track.  Last minute selections based on odds, appearance, etc.. is all the real hdcping I do once I get there. I spend at least 2-3 hours the night before studying.  Race day is not the time to do your main hdcping.  Get your plays together,  make your wagers,  and have fun.

[bellsbendboy]

Excellent stuff.  I have found a niche and for me, it has been profitable and fun. Some ninety plus percent of my bets are pick 4\'s and I average around $35 to $45 per play. Most of the time it is on the best Midwest track running.

By betting twice a week, or thrice when Churchill is running I can get the form two or three days ahead of time. It takes me about six hours to plan my ticket.

I have been taxed six times in 2006 with one over 10K, but it\'s not that I am a better \'capper. It is just that I have eliminated the hassles you face; money management, having enough time to \'cap, the ups and downs of hits and misses etc.

Hope this helps someone as we have all \"been there\".  BBB

[Silver Charm]

Thanks for the ideas.

Preservation of capital always seems to be an issue when days start early, like this coming Saturday, and end late. A jump off the page winner early in the card will not get hammered, by me, like he would if was in late in the day. The first three on the West Coast tracks seem to come and go before I realize they are even running.

Also since I end up betting a little more per race at the end of the day than early it never made since to me that I started looking at race one and work my way to the last. By then my concentration and discipline may be breaking down and yet these are the races that will make or break your day.

A normal Friday evening after a long week of work is usually spent having a nice dinner and whoever looks like she would be good desert. Looks like I am going to have to make sacrafices.

 

[STB]

Just a thought, everyone\'s got their own ways, but you mention night-time studying, I\'ve found early morning to be much more productive, I get through twice as many races in two hours in the morning as I would in three hours at night.

[P-Dub]

Do you live on the East Coast??

Tough to do for us Left Coasters when races start at 9am.

Silver,
I do the same thing. Wager too little on races I really like early in the card,  then wager just as much if not more on later races that I don\'t like as much. Doesn\'t make much sense.

[STB]

Yes, I live on the East Coast...typical provincial thinking on my part...

As far as not betting enough on early races you like, almost everyone I know (including myself) does this. I can\'t speak for anyone else but for me it\'s some sort of self-preservation instinct kicking in, if I step out on an early race and lose it is very tough for me to resist the urge to chase as the day wears on. Some of my all-time worst days have come on \"big days\" like the Breeder\'s Cup where I really liked a race or two early, stepped out, got beat, panicked, and then went on tilt.

[TGJB]

SC-- what I do is take a first pass (3 minutes a race tops), seeing whether something jumps out at me, like a horse I really want to bet on, or more likely, a favorite I want to bet against. If there is, I mark it (write the race # down on the outside of a hardcopy set of sheets, in my case). I generally end up marking about half the races, and I then go back and focus on those, which cuts down considerably on the time pressure. If I end up with a dead period between races I marked, I might go back and take another look at the others, just for action-- but I\'ll bet less, unless I really missed something big, like a horse I thought would be bet is 20-1.

The larger issue is that of multiple race bets, and I\'m not a fan. Yeah, you can hit a home run, and if you are only looking at one track, you could make a case for it. But the problem is you end up tying horses you like to races where there is no edge, and diluting your bankroll and focus-- unless several races I marked are back to back (or maybe 3 out of 4), I\'m a lot better off playing the situations where I have an edge.

Here\'s one for you-- I don\'t play horses, I play races. That often means playing AGAINST horses-- I would recommend that anyone who has not already take a look at the \"betting guidelines\" on this site. I know it is a pain in the ass, but if you actually ask yourself what you like about each race as an exercise, I think you can learn a lot, and avoid a lot of grief. Try it-- out loud.

[miff]

The inclination to \"last\" the entire card is probably the single worst method of money management. Second is spreading to the point where dilution severely reduces any real chance to make money.

Without the discipline to pass races you will have little chance to hold your own over time.Zeroing in on certain plays for the card has been helpful to me.Paying close attention to how races are being won is also important(any bias).

My personal method is to read the form ONLY first, look for spots(weak favorites,race set up, etc) and then look at TG.I find things jump out more in  following that sequence of reviewing races.

Re multi race wagers,I agree with Jerry that following one or two circuits closely is about the only realistic shot you have to hold your own.Re the pick six,I\'m sure that many of you know that there are several syndicates with big bankrolls hitting the all button in a few legs. The greatest handicapper is no match for the all button so tread lightly on big carryover days.

Mike

[bellsbendboy]

Nice comments Mike.  I would think JB economical on his time spent, and lethal on the bad favorite angle. I do, share your relish for race shape, and determine my plays by day, with only an abort, if, off the lawn.  Aside from the Preakness, Belmont, and top stakes days I never venture outside the midwest.

The TG figs, data, and accompanying graphs, are as good as there is; in fact, the best in the sport. But they are seem to be less effective on turf, in the midwest, I feel certain.  Nevertheless, pick 4\'s pay well on occasion, and are always challenging. I play around sporadically, but the pick 4 is a great bet. BBB

[Silver Charm]

Thanks for all of the responses gang.

Simucasting has become the good and evil for the racing player. The good is that should never be a rush to find or make a play on a race. Why because there will always be more, somewhere, next week. If the day is not working out I shut it down and wait for the proverbial other day.

The evil is that the days of spending a relaxing casual day at the races, on the big days, are over. There is no 30 minutes between races to spend creating wagers, looking at the post parade, etc for a ten race card. The card has become a 40 race card which requires pre-race day preparation to whittle things down to 10-15 solid bets. For me at least.

This takes a hell of a lot of work and a little bit of a different disposition from the norm. Keep in mind I am only talking about the big days. A drop in drop out play on the CD Pick-Four or whatever else like last weekend is entirely different.

I wouldn\'t log in to my online stock account and buy several thousand dollars worth of stock without doing my homework. I do not intend to do the same thing this Saturday when I am playing the horses.

[miff]

Bell said:

\"The TG figs, data, and accompanying graphs, are as good as there is; in fact, the best in the sport. But they are seem to be less effective on turf, in the midwest, I feel certain. Nevertheless, pick 4\'s pay well on occasion, and are always challenging. I play around sporadically, but the pick 4 is a great bet.\" BBB



Bell,

Very strange. I mainly play NY and the other big tracks(occasionally). Without question, I have found the NY TG turf figs superior to any other data. Dirt figs are another story on occasion.

I have found that dirt figs from smaller circuits are not as reliable, even after a local start.Thats my experience which is exactly the opposite of your experience. I guess it\'s different approaches.

Good luck on BELMONT DAY,I saw the card, it\'s great.Pray for no more rain here.

Mike

[STB]

TGJB,

Re-read your betting guidelines. You don\'t mention trifecta wagering. Was just wondering if you play tris, and if so, what makes you want to pull the trigger.

Also wondering what folks think of the \"exacta as place bet\" wager. In my early days I would bet back up a win bet with a place bet if my pick was 6-1 or better and it was a race where I felt like I couldn\'t narrow down the field to a point where I could use one or two horses in an exacta with my win bet, but a friend suggested backwheeling the horse in exacta instead. I started doing this and my results show that I almost always make out better going this route, possibly because I bet mostly turf races with big fields. My only qualm is that I feel like by backwheeling I\'m wasting a few dollars on non-contenders, but on occasion one of those non-contenders has run me over and I\'ve essentially lucked into a nice saver exacta.

[bellsbendboy]

Interesting Mike!  I should say my sample size re: TG figs on turf, in the midwest is not large enough, and I am far from knowledgable with the patterns involved.  I track internal fractions, rail placements, course conditions, etc so maybe the figs just do not help me as much.

With that said, I find the one turn races on dirt remarkably useful regardless of track.  While they do not neccessarily point out the winner, they sure give a bucket full of horses to toss.

Be playing the Belmont pick 4 as well. Good \'cappin.  BBB

[P-Dub]

> Bell said:
>
> \"The TG figs, data, and accompanying graphs, are
> as good as there is; in fact, the best in the
> sport. But they are seem to be less effective on
> turf, in the midwest, I feel certain.
> Nevertheless, pick 4\'s pay well on occasion, and
> are always challenging. I play around
> sporadically, but the pick 4 is a great bet.\" BBB
>
>
>

BBB,

Go to the Red Board Room and look at this race.  Fastest horse paid $41,  ex pd 198 for 2 bucks. Cool Conductor is a toss for me at 4-5. His last race was no better than 3 or 4 others, and the fastest number in the race won.  I was sitting with a few buddies who could say nothing more than \"this horse has the class,  this horse outclasses the field\" over and over.  I told them this other horse may not have the class,  but he has the number. The TG turf numbers have been very good to me at times,  and this was another example.

The LS 10th today paid a very nice exacta too.....on the turf.  

Agree about the P4, today\'s at Belmont was ridiculously nice.