Davidowitz

[marcus]

I thought this might happen and probably is why I should have said nothing  - Sorry . It happened to me before years ago , someone calling me under false pretences or using my name erroniously to try to make a little trouble ...

 I was suspicious of Barbaro\'s big # ( and effort ) .   It was my concern that , untill the Derby , the horse had not moved forward  much since his 2 yo campaign and that perhaps those big juvenile efforts were indeed the Lynch Pin or the beginning of the end for Barbaro .

 Though I\'m not changing whatever little philosiphy I have when evaluating 2 yo and  turf numbers when handicapping a dirt race - and the short rest issue aside for the moment , there are those unknowns when a horse returns from Hunt Meet or Steeple Chase Race and it\'s also fair to assume ( at least in Barbaro\'s case and how he gave those numbers ) that the Turf Races can merit a similar suspicion .

Although the Vet found no pre-conditions , and with all due respect , it is my very limted understanding that such evidence can and does get destroyed while sustaining an injury .  I suppose one way of  \" guess-timating \"  how a horse may have  handled those 2 yo numbers is to see how they handle major effort\'s run  at 3 yo ...            

[TGJB]

Steve--

1-- I didn\'t have caller ID in those days, you might just have mentioned using the Florida sheets, and I might have remembered it as your being there. If that\'s an important point to you I stipulate it, and apologize. I do not remember the later interview (we stars do so many), but I\'m sure you are right, and the fact I don\'t remember would seem to indicate there was no friction, or if there was, that I\'m getting Alzheimer\'s.

2-- If you would prefer, we can substitute berate for scream in the initial call. On the points you covered in the post above, at length.

Having said that-- you bring up an important factor, namely Steve Nagler. Steve was briefly hired by us to get us some PR, and even after that got free data from me for a long time (data which helped earn him an Emmy in 1987-- he was producing The Derby, and said he had one iso camera left, and asked whom he  should train it on, I said Alysheba, whom I bet. Hence the closeup of McCarron almost getting pitched. Steve got another Emmy later-- it was his idea to put the camera there for \"Mrs. Genter, Mrs. Genter, you won the Derby, Mrs. Genter. I love you, Mrs. Genter\").

Anyway-- as you undoubtedly know, back in those days Nagler could be incredibly annoying. His idea of getting us PR with racing press and other experts  (yourself, Steve Crist, etc.) was to stick our sheets in their faces every time he had a winner and tell them how great we were, loudly. Many found it annoying,and he ended up alienating a whole bunch of people towards our data and concepts. When you gave me a hard time, I knew right away what had happened.

By the way, Steve got pretty sick recently, but it looks like he\'s going to be okay.

3-- The conversation at the Expo was brief, I did remind you of the initial phone call. You were sitting at a table (possibly signing books), we started talking about one of the panels (maybe rebates), we disagreed completely, and the temperature went up immediately. I ended the conversation politely, no harm no foul.

4-- There is no proof in any result in this game, just evidence, and I would be very surprised if nowhere in your books do you point out an example of a race and result as showing a cause and effect relationship (pace, bias, etc.). I will almost guarantee that you and every one else in this game are more guilty of doing this than I am. What I did was lay out percentages IN ADVANCE-- and with two more examples since then, over 90% of the starters off those big efforts have now not been able to repeat the effort. Which is the kind of thing that for practical purposes gets you to a cause and effect relationship.

5-- Your points about figure drift and the breed require a longer answer, and I would strongly suggest you take a look at \"Are Racehorses Getting Faster\" in the archives section of this site. You will find, among other things, that many if not all racetracks are SLOWER now than they were, due to increased percentage of sand vs. clay, and greatly increased cushion depth.

6-- We hope to have a study some time soon about breakdowns that will give an answer to whether the TC races should be spaced further apart. But if you were reading this forum a couple of weeks ago, you would already know that there was a study done by veternarians that showed that increased frequency of racing and workouts dramatically increased the chance of injury, something like five fold. If anyone can find that and wants to repost it, it wouldn\'t hurt.

7-- For the most part I don\'t take issue with the handicapping work of others unless it\'s in an area I know a lot about-- like figure making.

[davidrex]

Why\'s everrrrybody always pickin\' on me
Any relation between Jerry and Charlie?
Tell you what; Jerry would make one hell of a defense attorney.Squeaky wheel gets the oil($72 a barrel)
Jerry your not the most loveable guy in the game,but your #\'s are ok with me.
I believe Steve but I hang with Jerry!

[Delmar Deb]

Jerry:

I guess I was lucky...he stuck it in my face BEFORE the race.  I can still vividly recall the moment when I became a TG (True Gold?) BELIEVER...stakes race at Del Mar for 2 y.o. fillies, Baffert 3/5, Eoin Harty 5/2.  Baffert had just run a lifetime top and Eoin\'s horse had a pair...no contest!

A few weeks later when we were both working booths at America\'s Day at the Races at Del Mar, he showed up with TG (knowing he had a live one here) and wanted to go over the Labor Day stakes with me.  Unfortunately for handicapping, I had the NTRA booth with a ton of prizes for kids and we were holding a drawing every hour.  Between submitting entries and watching the merchandise, I got in very little handicapping and almost no betting.

But I was hooked and you know the rest...

Really glad to hear that he\'s going to pull through - is he still in NY?

[Ron G.]

Didn\'t care for it.

[JimP]

Mr Davidowitz: I too have enjoyed your books and appreciate this well written and reasoned response, but I don\'t understand the comment about \"poor taste\". Can you elaborate on why you think it is in poor taste to state that big efforts create conditions for a bounce and large bounces create conditions for an injury, and that this particular injuried horse was classified as a big bounce candidate prior to the race? I fully understand why you might disagree with some or all of the logical agruments about cause and effect, but I don\'t understand why the argument itself is in poor taste. Would like to hear more from you on that point.  

[imallin]

Steve,

Good to see you on board, come back often!

I think the term \'bounce\' is completely overused and completely misused by the masses. Talking heads on TVG are using the term and probably don\'t even know what a bounce actually is. I believe that people use the word bounce to mean \"he\'s not going to run well\" when all bounce means is that the horse will \'react\' to his most recent race and not run as fast of a figure.

Horses bounce and win all the time but you\'ll never hear a \'talking head\' say, \"wow, this horse bounced and still won\" Bounce to them is a horse who races  poorly, not running a slower number because their previous race \'took something out of them\'.

If someone wants to believe that Barbaro\'s \'bounce\' was so severe he broke down, than thats what they want to believe....if you want to believe the opposite, that theory can hold water too.

Its a shame what happened to our Ky Derby winner, but for betting purposes, some people might have won for the wrong reasons. They might have bet on Barbaro to \'bounce\' and because they won, they assumed they were correct in their analysis. Barbaro might have won if he didn\'t take a bad step, we will never know. Barbaro might have bounced and still won, we\'ll never know that either.

I guess it comes down to this. Anyone who made a score on the Preakness by throwing out Barbaro because they believed he would bounce should just take their money, keep quiet and bet against the next \'bounce candidate\' they happen to find. No reason to pound your chest like king kong because you selected a winner of a horse race.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Hey Imallalin,

Your posts have come a long way in the last few weeks.

NC Tony

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

imallin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Steve,
>
> Good to see you on board, come back often!
>
> I think the term \'bounce\' is completely overused
> and completely misused by the masses. Talking
> heads on TVG are using the term and probably don\'t
> even know what a bounce actually is. I believe
> that people use the word bounce to mean \"he\'s not
> going to run well\" when all bounce means is that
> the horse will \'react\' to his most recent race and
> not run as fast of a figure.
>
> Horses bounce and win all the time but you\'ll
> never hear a \'talking head\' say, \"wow, this horse
> bounced and still won\" Bounce to them is a horse
> who races  poorly, not running a slower number
> because their previous race \'took something out of
> them\'.
>
> If someone wants to believe that Barbaro\'s
> \'bounce\' was so severe he broke down, than thats
> what they want to believe....if you want to
> believe the opposite, that theory can hold water
> too.
>
> Its a shame what happened to our Ky Derby winner,
> but for betting purposes, some people might have
> won for the wrong reasons. They might have bet on
> Barbaro to \'bounce\' and because they won, they
> assumed they were correct in their analysis.
> Barbaro might have won if he didn\'t take a bad
> step, we will never know. Barbaro might have
> bounced and still won, we\'ll never know that
> either.
>
> I guess it comes down to this. Anyone who made a
> score on the Preakness by throwing out Barbaro
> because they believed he would bounce should just
> take their money, keep quiet and bet against the
> next \'bounce candidate\' they happen to find. No
> reason to pound your chest like king kong because
> you selected a winner of a horse race.

First Off, He wasn\'t \"our\" Kentucky Derby winner. He won the Kentucky Derby.

Any discussion of the Preakness has to include the fact that Barbaro not only suffered a setback, he came completely unglued. Derby horses don\'t come unglued a few jumps out of the gate like that. The unglueing was unlike anything in modern Derby history. It was tantamount to that old Rolling Stones song \"Shattered\".

Many played him out in the Preakness. The way he went out confirmed everything that was suspected of him. (Note Alm\'s posts) To defeat a horse is one thing. To defeat upon a bounce is another. To vanquish an overrated horse upon ouch analysis and have that ouch theory come to fruition with the glorious sound of snap, crackle, pop, Ka Ching is clairvoyance.

With a purposeful grimace and a terrible sound
they pull the spitting high tension wires down

Helpless Barbaro bettors on a subway train
Scream bug-eyed as he looks in on them

He picks up a bus and he throws it back down
As he wades through the buildings towards Elmont town

Oh no, they say hes got to go
Go go godzilla, yeah, yeah

[imallin]

You need help! lol

[richiebee]

CTC\'s posts are IMO so far over the top that they are scraping rock bottom...

Kind of reminds me of the love song Willie Nelson said he was writing: \"I\'m so miserable since you\'ve gone, its almost like you\'re here\"

Chuctacular Bid, get a grip. Quit picking on a poor crippled stallion prospect who will hopefully one day turn into one of the rare racing feelgood stories. Quit picking on the colt on the left coast who almost all others have, if somewhat grudgingly, come to admire.

Snap out of it, Chuckysheba. Theres work to be done. I know your Belmont selections will not be issued until sometime after the field passes the 1/8th pole. But how about the undercard?

How about the Woodford C Stephens? (If you are not watching this race with a bottle of beer or a flask of bourbon, or both, your missing the point).

I will not ask your opinion on the late P4 races, because I know you would rather assail the selections of others than formulate your own. LOL

I just have one question. In the all stakes P4 at Belmont tomorrow, I set the number at 1.5. How many of the four stake races in the late P4 are won by Pletcher? Over or under 1.5?

[P-Dub]

Jerry has said it a million times.

Ignore this idiot. Its what he craves. He has no life so he creates one here.

Jerry,
This guy always comes back with a tasteless, reprehensible comment. Can you put a lid on this idiot somehow??

Richie,
Why you carry on conversations with this idiot, using names of past great horses,  is another mystery. We don\'t care what he thinks about ANYTHING. Send messages to him privately.

[richiebee]

PD:

   I was merely trying to get Clown to focus on some handicapping.

   Only The G Jerry Brown (and the \"G\" stands for Golfer? Guru? Giddy that the Mets look real, that the Braves are drek, that the only pursuit is coming from a Phillies team which always fades in the lane) can muzzle the Clown. Absent the muzzle, I was only trying to get Clown to FOCUS.

   (I, P- Dub, am very FOCUSED on tomorrow\'s P4. So much so that I only downloaded those 4 races, TG and DRF, and would like to know if TGJB will give me a customized discounted Analysis which includes those four races only).

   My thought is that TGJB thinks the Board promotes his business, and that CTC is somehow good (think lightning rod) for the Board. Is this true? I don\'t know, but like I said its Jerry\'s business and he should know.

   As to Chuckles, it is unfortunate but I have found that at spontaneous musical gatherings the instruments most loudly played are usually not those making the sweetest sounds.

[Silver Charm]

The over on Allday is 2.

Take that it is a much safer bet.

As far as Mr. Davidowitz goes I want to address a point he made in his first post about SHEET players using the bounce theory to explain events but ignoring the outcomes when it doesn\'t work.

The bounce theory is frequently used by SHEET players to eliminate prior race big figure horses who may be getting overbet. However that doesn\'t mean they will not bet a bounce candidate if he isn\'t being overbet.

Take the recent Preakness as an example. The winner Bernardini had undergone a rapid development in less than five months and was entering off a giant top.

Former Ragozin customer and current TG user Michael D. posted the cold exacta on the day of the race, the Triple and the Super. Also a Ragozin player, Henry the Eighth I believe, posted on their Forum an analysis where he also picked the winner and exacta. The exacta selections are significant because that required using a horse who was bet to favoritism in the Derby and had severly bounced. A very tricky read in and of itself considering the short rest.

Most people do not like things they can not understand. Critics of the bounce theory fall into that same bucket.

[TGJB]

Richie-- CTC is trying to use attention to fill the gaping unfillable hole where his ego is supposed to be. At least Coulter has the excuse of selling something, though that\'s really no excuse (and before any partisan out there feels the need to even the score, like the last time I mentioned this, I will say again that I\'m not partisan, I\'m a Libertarian, and I voted for the jerk in the White House myself, the first time). CTC gets to keep posting because contrary to popular thought, I hate censoring and barring people-- I even let CH send me person-to-person e-mails until very recently, when I could take no more. You have to love a guy who posts unsolicited to say he has no opinion, at length.

But CTC is on borrowed time. Especially since he continued to take shots at LITF without responding about how many times he bet against him and lost.

I was pretty excited about the Mets, still am, but they are one pitching injury away from being a 500 club. The bullpen ain\'t all it\'s cracked up to be, either.