ROTW

[spa]

ROTW ?

[TGAB]

It\'s going to be a Sunday race and will be up sometime this afternoon.

[cubfan0316]

looking for freebies again, oops?

[spa]

Looking for winners.....

[marcus]

 Nice call TG on the ROTW + the aquisition of Royal Cheer . The 2 longshot\'s are the only 2 you\'d hate to lose to in that race .
 I like Royal Cheer + Galileo\'s Star + Harriett Lane all to run new tops today and again in their next couple starts before Breeders Cup ...  

[beyerguy]

From the analysis:

\"Grass horses simply
aren't set back by big efforts, as Barbaro was by his huge Derby\"

That is a real \"Stretch Armstrong\" type reach there.  To say a horse bounced when he broke down after about a furlong is just crazy.

[miff]

Beyer,

Get used to it, it\'s required TG dogma.Horses are only set back or break down because of prior huge efforts. Not even close.

Mike

[TGJB]

Miff--

1-- I did NOT say they ONLY break down after big efforts.

2-- Again-- I believe that big efforts cause physical discomfort (like that you feel the next day if you play ball after not doing so for a while, or exercise more than usual), and a horse will change his mechanics slightly to get off something that doesn\'t feel good. When you are dealing with something this big moving this fast and landing on an area this small, the impact is huge (there have been studies that show the pounds per square inch is something truly crazy), and anything less than optimum mechanics can cause real trouble. Again, my analogy is to a pitcher adjusting his delivery because something hurts, and blowing his arm out (Zambrano recently comes to mind).

This, by the way, is why trainers don\'t want to buy horses with bad stride mechanics-- they are more susceptible to injury.

Incidentally, when you see a horse miss a race because of a hoof bruise, check out how often it is coming off a big effort. Same theory.

[beyerguy]

Even if I give that it is possible the horse broke down due to a set back from his fast race, it is stated like it is a certainty in the analysis.  That is way over the top in my opinion.

[marcus]

There\'s a difference between horse\'s who are set back and horse\'s who break down  .  Whether it\'s a huge , good or an average effort (s) in question , the key is to see it coming in advance and sometime\'s you can . This is definately Jerry\'s department but , there are possibly an infinate number of variable\'s and factors at play here ( I can think of a few ) in  Barbaro\'s personal circumstances - just to name one horse ...    

[TGJB]

Bey-- time to do some homework. Go through this section of the site for the period leading up to the Preakness, and find the study of the 31 3yos we found that ran neg 1 or better in the spring. See how many stayed healthy afterwards, then tell me I\'m over the top. And keep in mind we brought this up BEFORE the race.

[miff]

Jerry,


Your study did not take in a host of other facts.Now regarding \"staying healthy afterwards\" I can name many 3yr old pre -june  runners that went bad, lame et al after running very slow figs on your product.

Horses do not have to be coming off huge efforts to \"stay healthy afterwards.\" That happens to your opinion, which if studied throughout the entire population of runners would challenge the findings of your original study.


Mike

[TGJB]

Miff-- tell you what. Why don\'t you take a random selection of 31 dirt stake 3yos, and lets see how many more starts they make this year compared to those 31 that ran neg 1 or better. My suggestion would be to use all the ones that ran on the Preakness and Belmont cards and in the Lone Star Derby that have not run that fast-- you keep track.

Yes, there are always individual circumstances (like the short rest off the huge effort for Barbaro, another factor that made this much more likely than usual). But those factors will wash out in a group study-- that\'s why we do things that way.

We hope to have abn interesting study at some point on a related issue as well.

[spa]

Way to tough for me.....I\'m going for FTL.

[beyerguy]

I know the study to which you refer.  It still doesn\'t change my opinion that to state as fact that Barbaro was set back/injured because of his Derby is in serious question.  There is no way to know one way or the other.  Is it more likely?  Sure.  That is all I have to say, I won\'t prolong this any further.