Lost in the Fog

[JR]

Looks like value here. Any reads? Any reads on the harder back end of the double?

[xichibanx]

I will not touch this race but my gut says to play against Lost in the Fog and key Kelly\'s Landing.  In reality, LITF will be hugely overbet considering his current form.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

xichibanx Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I will not touch this race but my gut says to play
> against Lost in the Fog and key Kelly\'s Landing.
> In reality, LITF will be hugely overbet
> considering his current form.
>

LITF hasn\'t won a race for 3YO and UP yet. He probably will some day, but hes looking more and more like a need the lead type. If you think he\'ll be leading after 2 furlongs he\'s probably more likely to stay on. If you think theres others to out quick him he appears to be a riskier bet. He\'s not facing sophomores any more. He\'s a good horse, if not quite in the same league as a horse like Silver Train. Don\'t think he can beat Sun King at 7 furlongs either.

Not sure whether its a wager race yet or not. Gonna check out some additional numbers tomorrow.

[bellsbendboy]

Seems a very well weighted handicap.  \'Fog had a tough sophomore campaign and was brilliant thruout.  Certainly not cranked against Carthage who would be second choice in here. The Breeders Cup is here (Churchill) and this appears an easy spot to me. I think he wins at 4-5.

For value, you might take a look at his stablemate Victorina in the previous heat.  She is very solid and comes off the best work of her career, outworking Fog by lengths. It is disconserting that Joint Effort wins a Grade 3 Derby day and gets 6 pounds off for this.

For more value, a pick three through both Gilchrist runners gets you to a wide open handicap and if they race on the hedge today, five of those are eliminated immediately. Good luck.  BBB

[miff]

Bell,

FYI,

Churchill was under water yesterday, don\'t know about today.I saw Yes Yes Yes run big in the water at the Spa last year.Big step up here.

Mike

[bellsbendboy]

Thanks Miff

Settled on a pick four that goes thru; Purim, Rush Bay, then Victorina,joint effort and joyful rhapsody, singling FOG and ending with a quartet of Atticus Kristy, Justice, Mighty beau and the Nth Degree. BBB

[Michael D.]

tough call.

sprinted clear in :22.1 and :44.2 over a fair bel surface in the riva ridge last summer. nothing phony about that race. the king bishop wasn\'t too bad either - hit the 6f pole in 1:09 over a fair sar surface.

tough start in the BC, went too fast early last (although he\'s gone that fast in the past and won).

if he sprints clear in a comfortable :44.3, he will be tough to track down.

i might try and beat him though.

the scratch of the 1 might help the romans horse. if he breaks alertly and gets to the rail, he won\'t lose an inch of ground. gets 9 lbs from LITF, and has a past TG fig from CD that looks pretty good here. odds will be decent.

[Uncle Buck]

Hip Hip Hooray for the Fog! Like 87 year old owner Harry Aleo said...\"The Fog is Back!\" 1:08 and change over that track was lights out man. This horse crushed Kelly\'s Landing on pure class.

WHat a really nice race horse this one is. All class baby! Nor-Cal all the way!!!!!!

UB

[JJP]

I wouldn\'t exactly say he \"crushed\" Kelly\'s Landing.  :22 for an opening quarter for a 6f race at Churchill is slow.  Look at most 6f races there and :21 3/5 is the norm.  There must be a long run to the beam that starts the timer for the 6f races.  In any event, Kelly\'s Landing was wider than LItF was, and had to close on a softish pace and he still wasn\'t beaten much.  

[Bally Ache]

As I said in April before his first race back, no need to make a judgment about Lost In The Fog now.  He\'s still running.  A lot of his contemporaries aren\'t. Time will tell.

But I will take issue with his main detractor.  I call him Brook (because he babbles).

The horse reeled off ten straight wins last year.  Nine of them were stakes.  Five of them were graded stakes.  He didn\'t need to carry his track around with him either.  He crisscrossed the country several times.  Only one of his wins was close.  All the other races he won by at least four lengths.  He was a three yr. old so he ran against three yr. olds.  Very common practice.  He won approx. $850,000., as a sprinter.  That\'s not easy to do.  Do you see that kind of money laying around on the floor anywhere?

He ran one bad race and, because it was in the BC you infer that he\'s lacking.  It\'s common currency among horseplayers that they all get beat.  Well, he\'s back to try again.  Instead of denigrating him off too little evidence, the fair and prudent thing would be to wait and see.


After he won Saturday you didn\'t even have sense enough to keep quiet.  Calling CD a backwater doesn\'t make it one.  Right now their running better programs than Finger Lakes South (Bel).

You said it was a nothing race and he beat nothing.  It was a graded stake and he beat who showed up.  He went in 1:08 & change.  That\'s racehorse time.  You attacked Greg Gilchrist and questioned his competence.  His record speaks for itself.  If you had an ounce of sense you wouldn\'t even go there.

J. Brown said recently that nobody makes you look as bad as you do yourself.  Amen to that.

[TGJB]

Okay, enough of this, this is the TG board, and we make our living measuring performance.

LITF ran SEVERAL negative figures AS A 3YO. We haven\'t done his recent figure yet, but he was a bet-against at a short price because he was spotting serious weight to some fast horses-- and he won anyway, meaning there is no way it\'s not ANOTHER negative. Betting against him is one thing, but it\'s just plain stupid (and self-involved of CTC) to take the position he\'s not a VERY good horse.

Enough. CTC WANTS you to respond to him-- that\'s why he\'s being outrageous.

[Saddlecloth]

that 6 year old carthage horse who beat him just bounced big time up at bay meadows

[Uncle Buck]

Yes Carthage did bounce and beat CDH (GII) winner Tricky Trevor by a nose in doing so. Carthage will be around at BC Sprint time I have a feeling. He was done at the top of the stretch and had enough guts to fight it out down the lane...and beat TT by a nose.

[Saddlecloth]

What figure did Carthage get that makes you say he was affected by his last effort?  TT just won a grade 2 a few weeks ago, did he bounce as well?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Bally Ache Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> As I said in April before his first race back, no
> need to make a judgment about Lost In The Fog now.
>  He\'s still running.  A lot of his contemporaries
> aren\'t. Time will tell.
>
> But I will take issue with his main detractor.  I
> call him Brook (because he babbles).
>
> The horse reeled off ten straight wins last year.
> Nine of them were stakes.  Five of them were
> graded stakes.  He didn\'t need to carry his track
> around with him either.  He crisscrossed the
> country several times.  Only one of his wins was
> close.  All the other races he won by at least
> four lengths.  He was a three yr. old so he ran
> against three yr. olds.  Very common practice.  He
> won approx. $850,000., as a sprinter.  That\'s not
> easy to do.  Do you see that kind of money laying
> around on the floor anywhere?
>
> He ran one bad race and, because it was in the BC
> you infer that he\'s lacking.  It\'s common currency
> among horseplayers that they all get beat.  Well,
> he\'s back to try again.  Instead of denigrating
> him off too little evidence, the fair and prudent
> thing would be to wait and see.
>
>
> After he won Saturday you didn\'t even have sense
> enough to keep quiet.  Calling CD a backwater
> doesn\'t make it one.  Right now their running
> better programs than Finger Lakes South (Bel).
>
> You said it was a nothing race and he beat
> nothing.  It was a graded stake and he beat who
> showed up.  He went in 1:08 & change.  That\'s
> racehorse time.  You attacked Greg Gilchrist and
> questioned his competence.  His record speaks for
> itself.  If you had an ounce of sense you wouldn\'t
> even go there.
>
> J. Brown said recently that nobody makes you look
> as bad as you do yourself.  Amen to that.


Bally Ache, you\'re giving me an ulcer. Foggy run didn\'t run a bad race in the Breeders Cup. He ran into classy horses. He ran into the toughest competition he ever faced. He ran into horses he couldn\'t possibly handle. Atilla\'s Storm ground him up and left him for the others to run past.

Not only did some know that, they posted vehemently about it pre Breeders Cup Sprint and cashed on that race, though it could have been better. For your edification, although one can lead a horse to water, here are some posts for you to review at your leisure. This is my last direct correspondance to you as I will be omit reading all your non substantive posts, including those you title \"Chuckles I really want your attention.\" Sometimes the waterhole is not poison even though the horse refuses to drink.

Was just as convinced that Bellamy Road and Barbaro were targets in their big losses as well, but can\'t post as vociferiously here. Though with Barbaro the certainty didn\'t hit until the gate bust, but at precisely that point the race had already been run.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=223638&postcount=53

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=223654&postcount=55

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=223769&postcount=59

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=223849&postcount=66

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=224081&postcount=75

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=224098&postcount=77

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=224254&postcount=89

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=224282&postcount=91

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=224286&postcount=94

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=224332&postcount=97

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=224489&postcount=106

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=224566&postcount=109

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=224577&postcount=112

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=225525&postcount=123

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=225714&postcount=130