6 Minutes prior to post in the Preakness...

[SJU5]

Ron??

[alm]

Sightsound, I respect your analysis of this situation, but I really don\'t think it was a misstep that caused the initial fracture in the sequence of the breakdown.

While it\'s true that workouts and training remodel bone, the reforming and flattening of the bottom surface of the condylar is a source of trouble in many horses.  It remodels the wrong way in soft boned horses (generally young horses.)  It flattens out and creates edges, which tear through the soft tissue below it.  

The amount of training you describe Barbaro undergoing wasn\'t necessarily hardening his bones.  Time and maturity count for a lot in that process and this was still a young horse.

Ultimately, it doesn\'t matter who among us is understanding the situation correctly---or best for that matter.  We lost a good one in this colt.

By the way did you see the x-ray of the fused leg and screws?  Very interesting stuff, especially the screw through the sesamoid.  I would not have guessed that was possible.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"i cant imagine the insurance company will want to
> pay off if matz and company ran a lame horse.\"
>
>
> Imallin,
>
>
> I do not recall anyone remotely suggesting he
> looked lame.You thought so?Regarding insurance,
> the company does their own evaluation and they
> issued a policy, assuming there is one.The
> conspiracy theory would have great credence if
> this horse \"failed\" insurance evaluation and is
> not insured.
>
>
> Mike
>

I\'ve never raced a horse and don\'t know what covenants Horse Life Insurance Policies contain. However, I\'m quite certain they contain some terminology that relieves the insurer of the obligation to pay should the horse be run, break down and die with a known dangerous condition. A ongoing disclosure provision if you will. Its impossible to believe that an insurer of 10 million or more, would say \"O.k., we insured him, run him as you please regardless of his condition.\" Theres just no way a lawyer would draft a contract policy to allow for that type of risk. He wouldn\'t subject his client to that risk.

There is going to be very little of substance that comes from the Track Vet. Larry Bramledge or Dr. Richardson, who is positioning himself to insulate his client and blow his own horn. Same for Edgar Prado, Michael Matz or Lael Stable. The only way they are going to elaborate upon this is a year down the road should Barbaro survive and be syndicated for stud. Don\'t even count upon it then. Richardson is not a magician and hes not a clairvoyant. He\'s an auto mechanic. He got his rear ended Mercedes into the body shop and he straightened the dings. Theres nothing he can add. He was not an eyewitness to the accident. He had no prior association. Theres nothing negative Richardson can or will say. You can rely upon the fact that everything out of his mouth will be neutral to positive for his client. End of story.

Barbaro was started on Turf and given lots of time between races. He was out of a Carson City mare. Carson City was not a bad sire, but was he a Classic Distance sire? and Did he get sound horses?. Who thinks those facts pointed to soundness and stamina? Granted we are generally talking soundness here. But, to have Stamina the horse has to be especially sound. Who really thinks the Belmont distance was going to be easy if Barbaro won the Preakness?

This was a carefully managed horse. He was carefully managed for a reason. The stable is not about to tell secrets.

[spa]

Did you see the many tight turns Barbaro was given prior to loading?

[jmetro]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> I\'ve never raced a horse and don\'t know what
> covenants Horse Life Insurance Policies contain.
> However, I\'m quite certain they contain some
> terminology that relieves the insurer of the
> obligation to pay should the horse be run, break
> down and die with a known dangerous condition. A
> ongoing disclosure provision if you will. Its
> impossible to believe that an insurer of 10
> million or more, would say \"O.k., we insured him,
> run him as you please regardless of his
> condition.\" Theres just no way a lawyer would
> draft a contract policy to allow for that type of
> risk. He wouldn\'t subject his client to that
> risk.
>
> There is going to be very little of substance that
> comes from the Track Vet. Larry Bramledge or Dr.
> Richardson, who is positioning himself to insulate
> his client and blow his own horn. Same for Edgar
> Prado, Michael Matz or Lael Stable. The only way
> they are going to elaborate upon this is a year
> down the road should Barbaro survive and be
> syndicated for stud. Don\'t even count upon it
> then. Richardson is not a magician and hes not a
> clairvoyant. He\'s an auto mechanic. He got his
> rear ended Mercedes into the body shop and he
> straightened the dings. Theres nothing he can add.
> He was not an eyewitness to the accident. He had
> no prior association. Theres nothing negative
> Richardson can or will say. You can rely upon the
> fact that everything out of his mouth will be
> neutral to positive for his client. End of story.
>
> Barbaro was started on Turf and given lots of time
> between races. He was out of a Carson City mare.
> Carson City was not a bad sire, but was he a
> Classic Distance sire? and Did he get sound
> horses?. Who thinks those facts pointed to
> soundness and stamina? Granted we are generally
> talking soundness here. But, to have Stamina the
> horse has to be especially sound. Who really
> thinks the Belmont distance was going to be easy
> if Barbaro won the Preakness?
>
> This was a carefully managed horse. He was
> carefully managed for a reason. The stable is not
> about to tell secrets.
>
>
>
>
>
Another spot on, after the fact, analyst.

[tmon]

Without any documented proof at all.

Tom

[NoCarolinaTony]

Imallin-

You speak with such conviction, so I am curious, what makes you an expert or authority on the matter? You know equine bone structure and it\'s makeup?  Are you a vet by chance? If you are just another gambler on this site, those are quite bold statements. The Dr. Who Operated on Barbaro is a liar?

Your Zapruder theory is the horse had to run because it was the Preakness and they  (Matz) knowingly ran an unsound horse? And that Prado did not do right by his horse the way Bailey did with  horse last year in Saratoga (Bellamy Road i think) last year?

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

Why single out TVG when HRTV Stronach\'s racing TV carries Pimlico racing?

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

Bravo!!

[imallin]

I didn\'t make it out that he was a liar, i believe that he might not have known for sure if the horse was fragile before the race or not. Also, i don\'t want to use the word \'liar\' because in this game and in life in general, there are \'little white lies\' to protect people that don\'t want to get thrown to the wolves.

If the Doctor was a really nice guy, which i\'m sure he is and he really likes Michael Matz, why would he say \"yeah, the horse was flawed and thats why he broke down\' Thats like saying \"michael matz is to blame for running a horse he should have known was damaged\"

You have to take this stuff into context. At this point, all that matters is barbaro\'s health. Whether he was flawed before the race or not absolutely doesn\'t matter one iota to anyone except maybe the insurance companies and the morbidly curious.

I don\'t believe its fair to say that \"im calling the doctor a liar\" because that is sort of indicating that i believe he is running a dishonest practice. I\'m just saying that in order to protect trainer matz career, he said, \"it was a fluke\"

this doctor could ruin michael matz career if he said the guy ran a horse who was badly flawed.

No reason to throw matz under the bus and ruin his training career...just like the doctor wouldnt want anyone to ruin his livlehood.

[imallin]

Because TVG has a show called \'the works\'.

Sure, it could have been hrtv also. No reason they couldnt have done it either.

[NoCarolinaTony]

My Point is that by contract Magna Inc would have to let TVG televise at their (Magna) exclusive tracks. I doubt they get permission to do it at Pimlico.


NC Tony

[sighthound]

>> Sight, You agree with Dr Richardson re Barbaro \"This is a single catastrophic accident.\"

Yes, I do.  

ALM posted alot of good info on condylar fractures, and what was said is true and not uncommon in the least. The few abstracts I posted support his statements.
 
But bones can simply crack, too, without predisposing subtle flaws.  Stress and strain.  Physics.  Limits breached.

I got cold chills the other night, thinking about if this had been a front leg.  It would have been Go For Wand all over again.

[sighthound]

I have never seen so many screws over so many joints.  If this works, I\'ll find the article he publishes on it or the conference paper where he discusses it in detail and presents it to his peers.  

The plate configuration is interesting, the scalloping to keep the plate off the periosteum.

This colt is going to need alot of prayers and luck from here on in.

[miff]

NC Tony,

I think the horse is question was Noble Causeway owned by Len Riggio,italian kid via Bay Ridge, who became Chairman of Barnes & Noble.There was a tremendous furor when Bailey scratched the horse with a few minutes to post. Bailey said the horse was not \"right\" and refused to ride.  

The horse vetted clean and nothing was found.Len and Zito were beside themselves with anger toward Bailey.Bailey stuck to his guns, the horse was not right.The horse worked fine after this incident was subsequently re-entered in a race and  pulled up after an eighth or so(from memory) A nuclear scan was performed afterward.

My point. Jerry Bailey \"felt\" something and was not right so I guess my money would be on Prado(said the horse was fine pre race) as opposed to some who claim they saw something untoward but Prado, the state vet at the gate, and many of the the most highly informed racing eyes in the world, did not.


Mike