things to ponder re preakness

[imallin]

1) shoes. Brother Derek didn\'t have bend shoes,barbaro did. Be interesting to see if BD gets a shoe change, since he supposedly lost one in the Derby.

2) Obligation. The Derby winner is obliated to run no matter what. He could be sick, lame or worse and he\'s running. This and the Belmont are the only two times where an \'off\' horse will most likely run. Not saying Barbaro is \'off\' but if he is, there will be no late scratch or early scratch, which has to be factored into your 3-5 price.

3) back in 2 weeks. Barbaro\'s career is spaced perfectly, now it isn\'t. If this race was run 5 weeks from now, He\'d be 3-5. this race is run tomorrow, he\'s 3-5. you get no extra value because you are taking a horse back in 2 weeks, thats not factored into the price because he\'d be 3-5 no matter when this preakness took place.

4) If Barbaro wins he\'s in great shape jockeywise for the Belmont. Correct me if i\'m wrong, but all the near TC misses in recent times were horses ridden by non-belmont riders. Desormeaux...moved too soon....Elliot....moved too soon....Stevens...moved too soon...Espinosa...would probably have moved too soon if he didn\'t break slow. Now, you have Prado...an experienced Belmont Park rider. Thats a huge edge many might not factor in if and when Barbaro goes for the TC.

5) Pre-derby training. Barbaro was galloping and working amazing, we could all see this with our own eyes on the Tvg\'s works show. BD had that funky workout at SA in April and SNS was galloping \'rough\' in one or 2 of his morning gallops. Now, you know, things can change. With everything going for Barbaro tripwise in the Derby, he was physically the best feeling horse before the race too.

6) resistance. Barbaro was able to cruise by 2 stoppers on the far turn. What happens when he makes his cruising move and the leader grits his teeth and says, \"no you dont\' Will Barbaro be as effective? Will he be able to \'fight\' with another horse and still keep digging and hold off the closers?

7) big outside speed. posts 7, 8 and 9 are going to be moving out of there. Is barbaro going to let them go and get shuffled back? Is he going to rush up to hold those outside speed horses wide? Tough spot postwise considering the outside horses are going to be pressing hard into the first turn for position.

Like Now\'s gotham. Watch the head on....Like Now is drifting badly at the wire. Thats alarming for me. He\'s a jackrabbit for the first few strides, he\'ll most likely have to set the pace under amazing pressure. Can\'t see him being around at the finish. Do we think the drift in the gotham is cause for concern?

9) Sacred light. SL only lost to BD by 1 3/4 lengths in the Santa Catalina. I have to imagine Bernardini is a much more talented horse than SL. Transpose Bernardini in the body of SL in that race..does he run by BD? Visually this is a spectacular specimen...who will be underbet because people usually handicap with the \'what have you done\' attitude instead of \'what can you do\' attitude.

10)Magic Weisner. If MW runs by War Emblem and pays 120 bucks to win, handicappers would be forever searching for the longshot winner of the Preakness. Now, because the favorite seems to ALWAYS win, we will have people just saying, \"the derby winner usually wins the preakness\" Hence, value for the longshots. One of these years its going to be total boxcars at the Preakness. I just hope i\'m not broke when it happens.

[NoCarolinaTony]

imallin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 1) shoes. Brother Derek didn\'t have bend
> shoes,barbaro did. Be interesting to see if BD
> gets a shoe change, since he supposedly lost one
> in the Derby.

Great idea

>
> 2) Obligation. The Derby winner is obliated to run
> no matter what. He could be sick, lame or worse
> and he\'s running. This and the Belmont are the
> only two times where an \'off\' horse will most
> likely run. Not saying Barbaro is \'off\' but if he
> is, there will be no late scratch or early
> scratch, which has to be factored into your 3-5
> price.

It\'s happened before (ie See Woodford Stephens)
>
> 3) back in 2 weeks. Barbaro\'s career is spaced
> perfectly, now it isn\'t. If this race was run 5
> weeks from now, He\'d be 3-5. this race is run
> tomorrow, he\'s 3-5. you get no extra value because
> you are taking a horse back in 2 weeks, thats not
> factored into the price because he\'d be 3-5 no
> matter when this preakness took place.
>

So Has Bother dereks Campaign and So Has SNS. Everyone needs to get off this idea.


> 4) If Barbaro wins he\'s in great shape jockeywise
> for the Belmont. Correct me if i\'m wrong, but all
> the near TC misses in recent times were horses
> ridden by non-belmont riders. Desormeaux...moved
> too soon....Elliot....moved too
> soon....Stevens...moved too
> soon...Espinosa...would probably have moved too
> soon if he didn\'t break slow. Now, you have
> Prado...an experienced Belmont Park rider. Thats a
> huge edge many might not factor in if and when
> Barbaro goes for the TC.
>

Brilliant!!


> 5) Pre-derby training. Barbaro was galloping and
> working amazing, we could all see this with our
> own eyes on the Tvg\'s works show. BD had that
> funky workout at SA in April and SNS was galloping
> \'rough\' in one or 2 of his morning gallops. Now,
> you know, things can change. With everything going
> for Barbaro tripwise in the Derby, he was
> physically the best feeling horse before the race
> too.
>
Matz is playing games with the press (ie See Woodford Stepehens)

> 6) resistance. Barbaro was able to cruise by 2
> stoppers on the far turn. What happens when he
> makes his cruising move and the leader grits his
> teeth and says, \"no you dont\' Will Barbaro be as
> effective? Will he be able to \'fight\' with another
> horse and still keep digging and hold off the
> closers?

Thought Barbaro Gritted his teeth well with Sharp Humor in Florida


>
> 7) big outside speed. posts 7, 8 and 9 are going
> to be moving out of there. Is barbaro going to let
> them go and get shuffled back? Is he going to rush
> up to hold those outside speed horses wide? Tough
> spot postwise considering the outside horses are
> going to be pressing hard into the first turn for
> position.
>

We also thought there was Big Outside Speed in the Derby too Didn\'t matter.
 
> Like Now\'s gotham. Watch the head on....Like
> Now is drifting badly at the wire. Thats alarming
> for me. He\'s a jackrabbit for the first few
> strides, he\'ll most likely have to set the pace
> under amazing pressure. Can\'t see him being around
> at the finish. Do we think the drift in the gotham
> is cause for concern?
>

Like now is not a mile and 3/16 Horse. He fades after Mile and 1/8.

> 9) Sacred light. SL only lost to BD by 1 3/4
> lengths in the Santa Catalina. I have to imagine
> Bernardini is a much more talented horse than SL.
> Transpose Bernardini in the body of SL in that
> race..does he run by BD? Visually this is a
> spectacular specimen...who will be underbet
> because people usually handicap with the \'what
> have you done\' attitude instead of \'what can you
> do\' attitude.
>
Bernadini is probably the best bred animal in the race in the hand of the Makthoums (Darley) Would not be a Surprise to me. I see this one over BD. Just a little light in racing foundation (one turn mile).

> 10)Magic Weisner. If MW runs by War Emblem and
> pays 120 bucks to win, handicappers would be
> forever searching for the longshot winner of the
> Preakness. Now, because the favorite seems to
> ALWAYS win, we will have people just saying, \"the
> derby winner usually wins the preakness\" Hence,
> value for the longshots. One of these years its
> going to be total boxcars at the Preakness. I just
> hope i\'m not broke when it happens.

 You are right but even if Benadini or Like Now  or Greeleys Legacy wins you won\'t get  the enormous value. Not this year Save your money!!! You would need Hemingways Zito or Diabolical  to pull that one off.

NC Tony

[jett]

Great Post,Really enjoyed reading it.--Jett

[imallin]

In the Preakness, the Pimlico tv\'s listed Zito\'s horse as the only one having mud caulks. No mention of bend shoes. Barbaro wore bends in the Derby. Did he have NO bends in the Preakness? No horse on the entire card was listed as to have bends, so either bends are not allowed at Pimlico or they never bothered to relay this vital info to the betting public.

Funny how a horse has an ankle injury and no one ever mentions the shoes he wore, what he trained in, what he raced in, etc.

Shoes matter yet you never EVER hear them mentioned by any expert. Tvg never mentions them, espn never mentions them and NBC never mentions them. Oh, they\'ll tell you about alex\'s lemonade stand, but won\'t tell you if anyone is getting first time bends.

What shoes was Barbaro wearing? Not that this has anything to do with what happened, i\'d just like to know, wouldn\'t you?

maybe ernie knows.

[TGJB]

Imall-- excellent point, and I\'ll guarantee Ernie knows.

[SoCalMan2]

How does Ernie get his shoe info?

[TGJB]

SoCal-- Ernie has his own man at the NYRA tracks who goes to the paddock, and has actually been known to get down on the ground for a better look as the horses walk in (or so Ernie told me years ago). Don\'t know if he\'s playing any other circuits, but if he is he will have found a way to get the info-- it\'s a major part of what he does.

[Michael D.]

imallin,

great post.

make sure you stop in before the belmont (or any race for that matter).

[imallin]

THanks Michael.

I know that plenty of trainers don\'t like bends or mc\'s and never use them. Shug and Mott dont use them ever i don\'t believe.

There was actually a picture of Barbaro on the front cover of the DRF a few days before the derby and you can actually see the bend shoe. So, i\'m guessing he was training in them before the Derby.

Also, another thing to ponder, maybe you guys have a thought on this.

Go back and watch the replay of the Holy Bull at Gulfstream on Feb 4th. In that race on a sloppy track, barbaro wore front bandages and won all out. Do we know if he wore mud caulks in that race? The track seemed to be really loose on top. I\'ve seen tracks like this and it appears like the horses go right thru the slop and hit the bottom. Not only that, but Barbaro makes a really funny \'bobble\' in midstretch and appears to shy away from his right rear leg. He was flipping to his incorrect lead, so maybe that was the reason for the bobble there. (he also flip flopped leads in the stretch of his first lifetime start. A race which the racing form notes, \"hard to load\")

Go back and watch the stretch head on of Barbaro in the Holy Bull and let me know what you think. If he wore caulks in that race and was hitting the bottom of the track, i have to imagine there was a chance he came out of that race dinged up someway.

But, you might say, \"Well, he won 2 grade 1 races after that race\" and to that i would say that i\'ve seen horses gallop out bad, return bad and then they come back and are actually able to run well once or twice before disaster strikes. Why, i don\'t know, but it happens.

[marcus]

nice post - thanks ! I\'m thinking the horse back on short rest first and foremost as primarily responsible . however , after going through some of this research and study findings and , if  pathological fatigue was immenent , it certainly could have manifested itself at any time - although perhaps to a lesser degree given more time between races and other variables like shoe\'s - racing surface conditions - works - etc  just to mention  a few  , all seem to be influential  factors ...

 after the Derby ( and having learned this from jerry ) , i felt sure  that irregardles of how well Barbaro may have came out the race , that the kind of problems which can potentially manifest themself\'s when coming in off inadequte rest or after big effort(s) or both ,  don\'t always show up in the derby post-  race test\'s and examinations  - the study info so far would seem to concur ....