Early Preakness Thoughts.....

[sighthound]

Good point.  Maybe it is more a matter of, \"Don\'t screw this up\" on the trainer\'s part.

As an aside, I felt truely sorry for Dan Henricks after the race. He looked shell-shocked.  He\'s got a damn good horse, too.  SNS is immensely talented, quality.

It\'s a good year.

 

[TGJB]

I want to comment on the excellent level of the analysis that has been posted here, both pre and post Derby, even when I disagree with the conclusions. Caradoc and Jimbo-- you guys are stealing my thunder. We\'re probably going to do a Preakness seminar and throw it in with the sheets for free (short field, and Paul wants to play with his new toy, which enabled us to create slides this year that are not static), and we\'re going to do some studies for it along the lines Caradoc discusses, but a little different.

We\'ll be posting the Derby figures this afternoon.

[miff]

Sight,

I agree,someone posted that this was a weak group, huh? Discreet Cat is still in the wings, Bernadini is bred to be any kind,Barbaro maybe a champ, SNS,BD are nice horses as well as others.They all run fast figs, so I dont get  the bad crop rap.


Mike

[JJP]

You\'ll never see 6-1 on Brother Derek or 10-1 on Sweetnorthernsaint.  Wont happen

[sighthound]

Makes me wonder what was lost during MRLS years just past.

[magicnight]

Re Hendricks, did anyone else see the derby draw on ESPN? If I remember correctly, the BD connections had a chance to go inside. When Hendricks was interviewed after the selection of #18, I think I remember him saying that it was the owner\'s decision to go outside. That could very well explain his looking ill after that trip.

[big18741]

The last four years the exacta horse in Baltimore didn\'t run in the Derby:

2005-Scrappy T
2004-Rock Hard Ten
2003-Midway Road
2002-Magic Weisner

[congaree1]

Is Olivers Twist running?

[Uncle Buck]

I tend to agree with you Sighthound after seeing the Derby performance. Further, the place the horse is tunred out, Fox Hill Farms I beleive, is a horse\'s dream. Matz seems to share a lot of the same sentiments regarding how he treats his steeds as Michael Dickenson, though I think Matz is more sound upstairs.

Looking like I\'ll play a spread pick 4 Preakness Day singling Barbaro on a big ticket, using BARB, SNS and BD on a secondary Pick 4.

My exacta strategy will be large BARB over BD and SNS with a smaller 3 horse box...

Tri\'s and Super\'s are not for me

[ezgoer89]

Caradoc Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jimbo:
>
> There's another way to analyze the Preakness and
> that is to conclude that Barbaro hasn't
> established his dominance yet.  Barbaro is only
> "tons the best of this crop" if we focus solely on
> the result in the Kentucky Derby, a dangerous
> practice.  The same Barbaro was life and death to
> win the Florida Derby over an undistinguished
> bunch.  If you have any confidence in the
> Thorograph figs, and you assume that Barbaro ran
> as fast as he did in the Derby, then Brother Derek
> has already run 4 races in the zero range or
> better while Barbaro has run only one.  In fact,
> if the trips were reversed in the Derby, Brother
> Derek may have won the race and instead we're now
> talking about how impressive a horse Brother Derek
> is.  So, while Barbaro's performance in the Derby
> may be everything you say it was, there's not
> enough evidence yet for me to conclude he's tons
> the best of this generation.
>
> And then there is the question of his short-term
> line coming into the Preakness.  ANY new top in
> the Derby is probably not the ideal pattern coming
> into the Preakness, never mind a new top in
> negative territory.  If you look in the Archives,
> there are ten Preakness contestants from 1992-2005
> which had run new tops in the Derby.  Of those
> ten, none went forward in the Preakness, 4 paired
> (including Giacomo last year), 3 ran off races,
> and the other 3 X'd out.  On average, those horses
> bounced 3½ points in the Preakness.  Also, Barbaro
> has developed a lot in a short period of time
> culminating in a negtive number -– probably in the
> range of at least five points -- another factor
> against him.
>
> I'm not saying that Brother Derek is going to win
> the Preakness, but there is not nearly enough
> credit given to this horse for the remarkable race
> he ran in the Derby and the soundness of his line
> all spring long.  If I told you the winner of the
> Preakness needs to run in the zero range, isn't it
> more probable that BD runs that race than Barbaro,
> looking at their sheets and considering their
> respective short-term and long-term development?
>
>

I thoroughly and completely agree with your assessment... I\'ve had this conversation with others about the strength of a fast/consistent line versus a huge jump-up and back on two weeks rest.  

There is going to be a huge difference of opinion between TG and Sheets, because they still do not have BD going through his 2 yo top.

[johndrj]

give me 10-1 on SNS and I\'ll take it

[JJP]

Better get ready for 9-2.  Maybe even 4-1

[miff]

Trip guys getting lots of ink for BD and SNS to a lesser extent. With only four realistic betting choices it may look like:

Barbaro 4/5

Bro Derek 9/2

Bernadini 6

SNS       7


Take your pick on the rest.


Mike

[big18741]

I think Brother Derek gets hammered at the windows.Strong second choice and closer to Barbaro on the tote than you think IMO.

Like Now will be ignored and could be a nice board crasher.Slower,but I think his graph will look good,and the 4 weeks rest gives him an advantage over the Derby big 3.Gomez on /Jara off won\'t hurt either.Live at a price if the Derby takes a toll on a couple of the favorites.

[JJP]

If Barbaro is 4-5, Brother Derek will be no higher than 3-1.  And no way in the world Bernardini is bet lower than SNS.  I don\'t care what kind of number he ran in the match race Withers.