Early Preakness Thoughts.....

[jimbo66]

As we wait for the Derby figures, I have to say I am surprised to see that the numbers \"floated\" here for Barbaro are in the negative 1 or 2 range.  For me, that was easily the most impressive Derby I have seen in my lifetime and I don\'t think my eyes deceived me.  Accelerating during the last 1/4 mile, coming home in 24 1/5, beating all the horses easily, many with established levels of performance.  I am sorry, but I don\'t buy that Bluegrass Cat only \"paired up\".  I am somewhat partial, since I had a futures bet on BC, but I won\'t believe that his Derby was only the same as the race in Tampa.  I also won\'t believe that Barbaro\'s derby was slower than Bandini\'s Bluegrass, Sinister Minister\'s Bluegrass, Sweet Northern Saint\'s Illinois Derby, and even Greeley\'s Galaxyy\'s Illinois Derby.

I make that point not to question the figures, since they aren\'t even out yet, but to lead into what to make of the Preakness.  I guess you can look at it two ways.  First off, you can concede that Barbaro is tons the best of this crop and will have no competition in the Preakness, as he won the Derby without seemingly being asked for his best, coming home in 24.1.  However, since he will be 1-1 or so, there isn\'t a lot of value in having this opinion.  Although it may be correct.

The other side to take is that a horse who has had a minimum of 5 weeks between all of his starts, having just run what I believe to be at least a 5 point top, now has to come back on 2 weeks rest and is possibly going to bounce like a rubber ball, at even money or so.  Granted, watching Barbaro stride out effortlessly in the stretch of the Derby does not give one the impression that he will bounce in his next race, but we do have a pretty long history of data here at Thorograph of how 3 year olds have reacted to big figures in the past.  Even Smarty Jones bounced a couple points in the Derby, I believe, although still winning easily.  

Looking at the possibles for the Preakness, the races seems to set up like a jockey\'s race to me, unless you believe Barbaro is tons the best.  The reason I say that is that even though you only have 6 or 7 probable starters, the four most likely winners all want to be in the same spot tactically, sitting off the shoulder of Like Now.  Barbaro, Sweet Northern Saint, Brother Derek and probably Bernardini, all run their best races sitting right off the shoulder of the speed horses.  Seeing which one gets the \"catbird\'s seat\", could be interesting.

I believe Brother Derek will be an overbet 2nd choice in the Preakness.  His race in the Derby reminds me of Medaglia D\'Oro a few years back.  He was my Derby pick and he was a speed horse but he got in trouble out of the gate and got pinched back.  He closed for a non-threatening 4th, but got lots of kudos for his courageous run in the stretch and how he was the only one making up any ground on War Emblem.  He went off 5-2 in the Preakness and didn\'t run a step, not being able to run back to his big Derby race off the short rest, although he did run big in the Belmont 3 weeks later.  I prefer a horse who is fast, and ran more of a \"non-effort\" in the Derby.  I think Sweet Northern Saint fits this profile.  We all know the horse is fast and he only ran for about a mile in the Derby before packing it in.  We will see how he looks next week, but at 7-1 or so, in a short field, with only one bad race in his past performances, he could be an overlay, if you think Barbaro is beatable.

[Wrongly]

I tend to believe that Barbaro moved forward 1 or 2 points from his Florida Derby effort, and maybe Bluegrass Cat paired or moved forward 1 point off his Tampa Bay Derby effort.  Too many horses encountered trouble in this large field and the wall of horses on the turn made for some very wide moves.  Also looking at the charts from Equibase, Bris, and DRF there appears to be some discrepancy, according to Equibase nearly 1/2 the field ran the final quarter faster than the previous quarter (the final turn).

As far as the Preakness; Bernardini, Brother Derek, and Sweetnorthernsaint would have to be 12/1 or more in my mind to take a shot against Barbaro.

[miff]

BD and SNS will come up for the trip/wise guys, I think 7-8 to 1 range for BD and 10-1ish for SNS. I think they both may be over the top and I\'m surprised that no  one mentioned that SNS did not jog well his last two days, acccording to reports.Bernadini beat up on a Dutrow horse that layed down turning for home in a fast performance against the adjusted clock.

Anything close to his last makes Barbaro very tough to beat. SNS has that big fig to run back to but this will be a much tougher bunch than he faced in ILL.

Mike

[jimbo66]

Miff,

I guess you expect Barbaro to be 1-2 or lower, if you think 8-1 and 10-1 for BD and SNS.  The field size will be 7 horses or so, not sure either BD or SNS will be that long.  Unless you think Bernardini is going to be second choice in the 4-1 range?

The question is whether Barbaro can run anywhere close to his last.  Of course, if he does, he wins.  I guess he can bounce 2 points and win.  But 3 year olds have not done well off the big jumpups the last few years.  Not sure I want to take odds on that Barbaro will be the exception.  Although, he certainly did look like an \"exception\" on Saturday....

Kasept,

You were following SNS very closely.  What is this about the \"not jogging well\"?  I never saw or heard anything about that.  did you see that while you were down there?

Whoever dropped about 800k in the \"last click\" on Saturday, must not have realized it either.  That drop from 7-1 to 5-1 in the last minute or so is pretty significant, with the amount of money in the pool.  Kind of reminded me of a couple of others.  Lion Heart went from 8-1 to 5-1 in the Derby in the last 2 minutes before post.  Funny Cide went from 16-1 to 12-1 in the last few minutes.  T

[JJP]

Barbaro will be between 4-5 and 1-1; about 9-10.  Brother Derek will be about 3-1 and SNS about 4-1.

[miff]

Jim,

Mike Welch at DRF wrote about it in two different columns and downgraded him. He originally liked the winner and SNS equally. He downgraded SNS on Wed and Fri of derby week.Check the drf archives under Clockers Report, it may be there.


Re Barbaro, he should be a stick, imo, but the hype and the blind following which will ensue may drive him down lower.I think the ones with a shot may give Barbaro a tougher race because the traffic should not be an issue in a small field.

Mike

[Kasept]

Jimbo,

The \"not jogging well\" thing came first from Mike Welsh in his DRF Clockers Report and then from Tom Amoss on TVG... Ernesto Ferdinand, SNS\'s gallop man since Day 1 and a 30 year veteran, laughed when I asked him about it before going on the air last Thursday. \"The horse is smarter than the SOB\'s watching him.\" was his exact response...

He said the first day when the track was muddy and the second day when chopped up, Saint just lightly hopped the first time around unhappy with the conditions/footing. He was also under a \"6-5\" hold... Those that claim he was or is sore, based it on the fact that he walked with his head down around the shedrow. Is he supposed to canter around the barn? He is a consumate \"energy-saver\" that shuts down when not having to work and lays down and sleeps whenever he gets a chance.

Take note that no one had anything to say about his Friday gallop after the reno break, which was great with the track back to normal.. That\'s because Trombetta got pissed off and sent him out MINUS his Derby entrant saddle towel so no one knew it was him!!

[Michael D.]

the field is getting smaller by the day. just a guess:

Barbaro - even
SNS - 4/1
BD - 4/1
Bernardini - 6/1
Baffert - 12-1
Like now - 15/1
slow Zito horse - 20/1

.....

Jim,

I don\'t think SNS can be 7/1 unless either Barbaro is in the 3/5 range or Bernardini takes a ton of money.

[high roller]

MORE LIKE BARBARO 4-5  BRO DEREK 6-1 , BERNANDINI 6-1 NORTHERNSAINT 10-1

[Silver Charm]

The early thoughts are how badly they need to change the spacing between these Triple Crown races.

Six or seven for the Preakness. Is this a joke. Even the other races get affected. How many Woodford Reserve runners will wheel back and how many CD Sprint runners give it a go.

The scheduling is old school. The Preakness should be run on Sat of Memorial Day weekend and the Belmont on July 4th.

Horses would last longer and don\'t give me this tradition and test of a champion bull---t either.

The Triple Crown has become a meat grinder that is ruining the sport as much as it is helping it.......

[Ron G.]

Barbaro ranges from -106 to -120 on various sportsbooks to win preakness right now.

[Caradoc]

Jimbo:

There's another way to analyze the Preakness and that is to conclude that Barbaro hasn't established his dominance yet.  Barbaro is only "tons the best of this crop" if we focus solely on the result in the Kentucky Derby, a dangerous practice.  The same Barbaro was life and death to win the Florida Derby over an undistinguished bunch.  If you have any confidence in the Thorograph figs, and you assume that Barbaro ran as fast as he did in the Derby, then Brother Derek has already run 4 races in the zero range or better while Barbaro has run only one.  In fact, if the trips were reversed in the Derby, Brother Derek may have won the race and instead we're now talking about how impressive a horse Brother Derek is.  So, while Barbaro's performance in the Derby may be everything you say it was, there's not enough evidence yet for me to conclude he's tons the best of this generation.

And then there is the question of his short-term line coming into the Preakness.  ANY new top in the Derby is probably not the ideal pattern coming into the Preakness, never mind a new top in negative territory.  If you look in the Archives, there are ten Preakness contestants from 1992-2005 which had run new tops in the Derby.  Of those ten, none went forward in the Preakness, 4 paired (including Giacomo last year), 3 ran off races, and the other 3 X'd out.  On average, those horses bounced 3½ points in the Preakness.  Also, Barbaro has developed a lot in a short period of time culminating in a negtive number -– probably in the range of at least five points -- another factor against him.

I'm not saying that Brother Derek is going to win the Preakness, but there is not nearly enough credit given to this horse for the remarkable race he ran in the Derby and the soundness of his line all spring long.  If I told you the winner of the Preakness needs to run in the zero range, isn't it more probable that BD runs that race than Barbaro, looking at their sheets and considering their respective short-term and long-term development?

[sighthound]

Matz knew he had a talented colt last fall.  The horse already has the deep training base to peak at Belmont.  He\'s coasting now. The Derby and Preakness are the planned works along the way to get him there. The horse galloped a half Derby morning, and still finished well in hand and hardly breathing. The horse jogged 2 miles yesterday, everyone else was jogging a mile. Barbaro\'s turned out in his paddock eating grass. The Derby took nothing out of him.

Matz figured out what he thinks it takes to get a talented colt to win the TC in this day and age, and is playing out his hand.  Barring injury, I don\'t think there can possibly be a bounce - the Derby was only a planned work along the way to the finish line at Belmont for this horse.

Is Barbaro better than many in the past?  History will tell. He\'s a damn good horse with a brilliant trainer.  

Preakness value only in the exotics.  The winner is clear.

[miff]

Sight,


Why wasn\'t Matz a \"brilliant trainer\" before last Saturday?.He certainly never showed brilliance by accomplishment before.Last year, Richey was the brilliant flavor of the day. It\'s the horse, sight, 95%.I think Barbaro might be a brilliant horse with a good trainer.

Mike

[BitPlayer]

I heard or read somewhere (I don\'t think it was on this board) on Friday or Saturday that SNS had lost some weight (maybe 75 pounds) since the Illinois Derby.  Do you know if there\'s any truth to that?  Thanks.

BitPlayer