Novice/Rookie Here. Looking for Expert Opinion on Delaware Park today

[joshb82]

Hi I\'m very new to Thorograph.  Just watched the intro video and am now giving a shot at my first card.  If there any experts (Jerry perhaps?) that has tomorrow\'s Delaware Park card, can you lend me your advice on how I sorted these first couple races out.


1st Race
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#1 Arcades Echo (3-1 ML) - 2YO debut of 13 would be good to win here.  Should improve with 2nd off layoff from the 18 two weeks ago.  My prediction: 14-16, Major contender

#2 Que Delicia (2-1 ML) - Steady advance from 23 to 16 past three races.  Perhaps coming back too soon?  Advance came in routes and now she returns to a sprint with only 2 weeks rest?  4th race in 8 week, another strong forward move seems unlikely. My prediction: 15-17, Questionable sprint ability.  Throwout at the price.

#3 Twotoesrosie (8-1 ML) - Would need to improve tremendously off first two starts to contend here.  Don\'t see it in the bloodlines to happen.  My prediction: 24-26, Non-contender

#4 Romantic Book (4-1 ML) - 2nd race after three month layoff. Figures to challenge her previous top.  Prediction: 16-18, Carrying extra weight vs most field, maybe put her at the bottom of a trifecta ticket.

#5 Queen Ballado (6-1 ML) - Two 18\'s early in the year followed by a vet scratch, a 2 1/2 month layoff, and a bad X?   Seems a couple races away from pairing or exceeding her top yet.  Prediction: 22-24, Non contender.

#6 Alleged Moon (8-1 ML) - 16 top late in her 2 year old campaign.  Paired it up in March after a 20 in February.  Coming back off another 20 two weeks ago.  Good bloodlines suggest more potential in this horse.  Very likely pair up here and possible new top.  One negative: Carrying the same 6 extra pounds that RB is.  Prediction: 15-17, Strong contender, especially at the price.

#7 Splashin Cash (10-1 ML) - 1st time starter.  Pedigree and trainer doesn\'t indicate anything special likely here.


Plays
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Win tickets on Alleged Moon and Arcades Echo at anything better than 6-1.

Exacta and Trifecta with Alleged Moon and Arcades Echo on top of the ticket.  Que Delicia and Romantic Book at the bottom.



2nd Race
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#1 Simply Valiant (3-1 ML) - Nice pattern with Pair-X-Pair with 4 weeks rest here.  Should move forward off that number with the inside post here.  Prediction: 13-15

#2 Hennie\'s Melody (6-1 ML) - Decent numbers with 13 top as a 3yo. Coming off a 2 month layoff after vet scratch is worrisome.  Trainer change looks negative as well for 1st race out.  Looks like a possible X.  Prediction: 18-20.

#3 Angels Encore (4-1 ML) - Good improving pattern.  A new top looks possible here.  Would of preferred more rest perhaps than just 2 weeks.  Prediction: 15-17.

#4 It\'s Obvious (15-1 ML) - Numbers relatively unimpressive vs rest of the field.  2nd race off long layoff, he definently has a good chance of approaching a new top in this one, but carrying 6 extra pounds and not likely good enough.  Prediction: 19-21

#5 Surprise Gala (10-1 ML) - 1st time starter.  Very solid pedigree.  Good trainer.  Carrying 5 pounds less than most of the rest.  Unlikely to win first time out but I think she\'s usable in the bottom of the exotics.  Prediction: 17-19.

#6 Millionairess (2-1 ML) - Should run a new top here, but at this price I\'ll pass on any win bets.  Prediction: 15-17.

#7 I\'m So Anxious (8-1 ML) - Another 1st time starter with excellent bloodlines and good trainer.  Fill out the bottom of the exotics again.  Prediction: 17-19.

#8 Dell Reef (15-1 ML) - Lightly raced 4yo.  Should set a new top here off the long rest, but carrying extra weight.  Prediction: 17-19.


Plays
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Difficult race to find a good wager on.  Simply Valiant seems to be the best of the bunch and probably a win bet is in order if she remains at 3-1 or better.  It\'s a virtual crapshoot behind her.  3,5,6,7,8 are all capable of finding themselves in the money.  Perhaps keying the 1/3,5,6,7,8/3,5,6,7,8 for $1 ticket and hoping a couple of those long shots sneak in would be the best way to go?

 
3rd Race
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#1 Downtown Jim (2-1) - Steady and consistant improving pattern that appears to have gotten too much respect from the morning oddsmakers. Major underlay  Prediction: 17-19.

#2 Flashing Flame (8-1) - Very solid looking horse, however the trainer change seems to be a negative though for 1st time out (Trainer 2 for 85 1st time with new horse).  An off race seems to be in order here, but he definently has value at this price at the bottom of exotic tickets.  Prediction: 17-19.

#3 Dawns Sunrise (8-1) - Non contender does not appear quick enough at all.  Even though he\'s coming off a new top of 24, he has a long way to go to contend in this one and there\'s no signs of hope in the breeding for a sudden move. Ridiculously overpriced at 8-1  Prediction: 22-24.  Throwout.

#4 Ghost Bar (6-1) - Appears to be circling back around after that great 14 in Gulfstream in late March.  Figures to run a very strong race here and should have excellent value.  Breeding indicates a horse with plenty of growth. Prediction: 14-16.  Major contender.

#5 Peru (3-1) - Tricky horse. 2nd off long layoff.  Incredibly impressive 11 in his 2yo debut. Top Trainer/Top Jockey Combo.  A definent contender.  Should improve in 2nd race off layoff.  Prediction: 14-16.  Major contender

#6 Mario Flowers (4-1) - Possible 0-2-X here? (actually 0-3-X).  Definently one to keep an eye on.  Figures to run a very strong race here.  Prediction: 14-16.  Major contender

#7 Crafty Scott (10-1) - how about an 0-4-X?  Ran in the teens as a very young 2yo in May.  Opened this year with a 15, followed by a 19 and 27.  Trainer/Jockey combo is very distasteful for this one, but at this price one
would be a fool to leave out of the exotics.  Prediction: 15-17.  Contender.


Plays
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Interesting race with plenty of wagering opportunity.  The morning line favorite appears he will have a very difficult task even cracking the board here.  A 4,5,6,7 exacta box could have some value.  Win bet on Crafty Scott, if as I suspect, he climbs above 20-1.  Perhaps a win bet on Ghost Bar above 10-1.





Okay, Experts.  Thoughts on my analysis??  Please, be BRUTALLY honest.  I want to learn the trends and patterns and finding winners!

I would GREATLY appeciate anyone elses analysis and thoughts on these three races.



Thank you so much
Josh

[TGJB]

Josh-- hope you had a win bet on the one in the third. Most of the guys are still recovering from Derby weekend, and most of the pre-race discussion here usually centers around stakes races. But maybe you can start a trend.

[TGJB]

Josh, I would add one thing, if this is your first time playing Delaware-- racing there, more than maybe anywhere else, is a trainer\'s game. These days that\'s true to some degree everywhere, but especially with claiming races, and especially there. Using the figures alone won\'t get it done.

[joshb82]

What exactly do you mean by trainer\'s game?

[P-Dub]

Josh,
I would imagine that he means some horses give performances that can\'t be predicted based on past peformances.  There are various reasons for this such as medications, etc...  Also, cheaper horses are much less reliable and predictable that better class horses. I live in the Bay Area and hardly ever use TG there because the horses are so in and out.

[MO]

One of these days, look for a 7 horse field at Delaware where there is an odds on favorite and a hopeless longshot. Box the other 5 and follow the clerk of scales to the windows.

[TGJB]

Josh-- I mean that it\'s a place where you have to handicap the trainers more than the horses, and the \"last 90 days\" stat in the trainer profile is very important. Some trainers move horses up significantly and abruptly, firsat or second time they run them, and the horses regress when they lose them.