Derby Post Mortem

[TGJB]

Miff-- the guys who had him 2w (one of whom does ground for us) are right. The chart calls are notorious for referring to straightaways or coming in or out of turns.

[jbelfior]

STB--

I agree. Edgar Prado is one of the classiest athletes in all of sports. Good for him that he has such a talented horse.

I thought BD had a tough trip, but no excuse for that effort. Perhaps Hendricks dulled his speed with the slow works. Why take away a horse\'s best asset? If you don\'t like the distance, pace scenario, post,etc, then don\'t run. IMO, BD is a Preakness throw out.

Most impressive Derby winner I ever saw was Spend A Buck, but that was in \'85. BARBARO most impressive winner in 20 years? ...probably. It\'s tough to argue against.

As for the Preakness. BARBARO was a popular winner and may end up going off at 3-5 if field is less than 10. As for SNS....if you watch the replay, 3 horses that ran on the rail stopped abruptly. KEYED ENTRY (who looked as if he got shot), POINT DETERMINED and SNS. Watch the replay, there\'s no one on the inside in the stretch except SNS. x ...that\'s how JAZIL got through to get up for 4th.

That Derby middle move, at one time, translated into a nice angle play at Pimlico. Some of those who nicely complied.... PINE BLUFF, HANSEL (as you mentioned), SUMMER SQUALL, TABASCO CAT, TIMBER COUNTRY.



Good Luck,
Joe B.





 

[tmcdevitt]

TGJB-

You think Bernardini will be a shorter price than Barbaro?

[tmcdevitt]

Chuckles-

I said it in my post to you about SM after the Bluegrass- you throw out the BG...for everybody, and suddenly you have a pattern on BC that looks very viable.

[TGJB]

No. He\'ll be shorter than the 15-1 Michael had him in his line. I\'m thinking 4/5, 6-1.

By the way, Jimbo owes me a beer. I wouldn\'t bring it up, but it\'s the only bet I cashed all weekend.

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

I was hoping you forgot about the beer.  I am not sure I can afford it, as I also didn\'t cash a bet on Derby day.  A plethora of bad picks and bad rides.  It is always pleasant to see your turf horse, with tactial speed, dropping back to last in a slow paced race, ala Perfect Drift, and a couple others.

I took solace in seeing that of my full card of CD losers on Derby Day, the author of the analysis had about 6 of the same losers I did......  I guess that author might have been you?

[TGJB]

Yeah, that would be me. The only reason that I\'m not consumed by guilt is that I undoubtedly sent more penance through the windows than anyone that followed them. Big ouch.

[Michael D.]

Jim,

Didn\'t cash a bet? Didn\'t somebody give you the cold exacta in the 2nd, 18/1 over 13/1?

Also thought you liked Joint Effort? $15.80 there.

[Michael D.]

Jerry,

I had Bernardini at 7/1.

 

[TGJB]

Yeah, well, 6-1 is shorter than 7-1.

[jimbo66]

Michael,

Yep, you did give me the 18-1 over the 13-1 in the 2nd race, ice cold.  

It was actually worse than that.  I was at the meadowlands, with friends, plus my old man and my son.  My father came up with the 18-1, using the DRF track variants, and my son read the thorograph sheets and independently came up with the 4, as well.  Me, being so much smarter, explained to both of them why the 4 was too slow to win, despite being the only closer in a race full of speed......

I boxed joint effort with a couple others, throwing Adieu out.  

I suck.

[ponypro]

Speaking of the second race. Talk about an irregular payout. I had a 40$exacta with this combo and it paid $200 It should have easily paid 450-600 on derby day. I started the day getting hosed and it only got worse from there.

[Michael D.]

Jim,

I tossed Adieu as well.

That was an Allday special. Those two fillies going 1:28 flat ?

[Michael D.]

pony,

that sometimes happens when you get a race with a lot of speed and two decent closers. the sum becomes less than the parts. all of us who played it to collapse had that exacta.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> For a change I agree,Barbaro had some things go
> his way. He\'s cat quick from the gate and settles
> without pulling which is why things went his way.
> Check the replay of his dirt starts and I think
> you will see an exceptional athlete.How much he is
> spent by the effort remains to be seen.
>
>
> There may be one minor negative,when I saw him
> work in florida, in Feb, he did not carry too much
> flesh. Is that why Matz spaces him so long in
> between starts? If so, two weeks may not be enough
> recoup time off that effort. We\'ll see.
>
>
> Mike
>

Miff, he\'s undoubtedly a good horse. It wasn\'t the same as with the Giacomo clunk up. If its better than a Negative 1, which is a great Derby figure, so be it. Maybe that and the light race schedule would make him vulnerable to a bounce next. But I\'m sure that light race schedule was designed to try and get him through the whole Triple Crown. I guess we\'ll see. Betting with conviction against Giacomo after his Derby win was easy. This Barbaro is a better horse than that and betting against him may be risky unless they say he ran so fast he\'s a bounce possibility. I don\'t know what to make of a super fast Derby fig. I don\'t see it in the charts and I\'m still reviewing the paths. However, I wasn\'t correct about much in that Derby. Other than not being as big a fan of the California horses as some.

If he is going to be a Triple Crown winner, it couldn\'t happen to a more deserving bunch of guys, including the owners, who are selecting true horsemen to train for them. Mike Matz is a bona fide hero. Everyone knows the story.

Obviously Barbaro has the inside track on 3YO champion. At this point, I think theres 3 horses that could derail that and 2 of them I bet Saturday. We\'ll see about Bernardini. Don\'t even know how to spell that ones name yet.