Derby Post Mortem

[miff]

MO,


Since the new Gulfstream Park surface(2 years ago) only 1 horse out of 30 won from post 10,guess who.Many horsemen would rather scratch than waste their horse from running out there.

I think you forgot the kudos for a horse that ran the fastest last quarter in memory and won by the largest margin in 60 years.

Mike

[MO]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> MO,
>
>
> Since the new Gulfstream Park surface(2 years ago)
> only 1 horse out of 30 won from post 10,guess
> who.Many horsemen would rather scratch than waste
> their horse from running out there.
>
> I think you forgot the kudos for a horse that ran
> the fastest last quarter in memory and won by the
> largest margin in 60 years.
>
> Mike

Mike,

Perhaps Barbaro won by the largest margin in 60 years because he was beating nothing? Remember, even Secretariat\'s winning margin in the Belmont was vs. 4 also rans, and none of them a world beater. That\'s not to say Barbaro won\'t be a great horse someday, but I doubt Barbaro could warm up Secretariat at this stage in their careers.


MO
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 05/07/06 09:45AM by
> miff.

[Bally Ache]

It looks, both from his PP\'s and firsthand observation of many who saw his early races, that this horse isn\'t even primarily a dirt horse. He looks like he might be  a turf monster and may prove to be a monster period.

His performance yesterday can\'t be denigrated.

[miff]

MO,


I\'m not talking Secretariat but this horse ran the best derby in recent memory and will most likely receive the fastest derby fig in modern times.He now has to bounce back on short rest(for him) to win the next leg.Talent and athleticism wise, he towers over these, right now.

Mike

[MO]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> MO,
>
>
> I\'m not talking Secretariat but this horse ran the
> best derby in recent memory and will most likely
> receive the fastest derby fig in modern times.He
> now has to bounce back on short rest(for him) to
> win the next leg.Talent and athleticism wise, he
> towers over these, right now.
>
> Mike

Mike,

Point taken, but I think this Derby is gonna get somewhere around a 0 because Prado saved ground. I agree with you in that he seems to tower over the rest, but remember virtually every horse had a bad trip (including the winner which can be a whole \'nother discussion). If you liked something going in and didn\'t get what you expected, you can draw a line thru the race and look at the Preakness as just the 11th race at Pimlico on a Saturday afternoon. A whole new ballgame.

MO

[miff]

MO,

Agree, the track was fast but not wildly so. The trip guys are already all over Bro Derek for the Preakness.I wasn\'t surprised at all that the outside speed was destroyed by trips.Check out BRISNET full chart results for the derby,very revealing.



Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> MO,
>
>
> I\'m not talking Secretariat but this horse ran the
> best derby in recent memory and will most likely
> receive the fastest derby fig in modern times.He
> now has to bounce back on short rest(for him) to
> win the next leg.Talent and athleticism wise, he
> towers over these, right now.
>
> Mike

Wait a minute. Barbaro won, but lets take some time to go over that. I\'m just not in the frame of mind to do it now.

First off, we may need to look close at the track again. I\'m too wiped out to do it now. Jerry mentioned something re: path Friday. The Derby results need scrutizned, just don\'t have the enthusiasm yet.

The two fastest horses and Steppenwolfer had a horror trip. You certainly can\'t score Barbaro off them. You want to score it from Bluegrass Cat\'s effort? I certainly don\'t. Just what do you project the mighty might Cat at?

[big18741]

Pletcher horses had some help yesterday.Is anyone surprised? His maiden 3 mill Forestry colt was challenged and under pressure the entire race.Gomez was all over him on the turn yet he was finding his best stride late at the end of the race?? It wasn\'t just the addition of blinkers IMO.English Channel wasn\'t that hard to come up with on trip.His winner in the 11th Yes Yes Yes ran a strong race-another that kept on going and going and going.I salvaged my day in the last two.

Keyed Entry is just distance challenged.

Bluegrass Cat I came up with as an under key-but no Barbaro on top.I couldn\'t see Prado working out that in the clear stalkers trip while chasing a hot pace and he didn\'t -the horse did.Sharp Humor couldn\'t even keep up with him on the backside which was surprising.Prado is just a passenger.Barbaro puts himself right where he needs to be in a race-he\'s just pulling Prado around-kind of like Elliot on Smarty Jones.

Brother Derek is gonna take money in the Preakness off his rough trip wide-wide,and Solis/Hendricks are saying they\'re gonna win it in Baltimore.He\'s the obvious option,but I think that effort could set him back.He\'s not beating Barbaro and he doesn\'t have to be in the exacta or tri.Waiting to see who shows up,but I\'m leaning towards using a fresh horse or horses underneath Barbaro.If I\'m Pletcher I take my shot against Barbaro in the Belmont with Sunriver.That is too much horse to deal with right now.Have to hope the tank gets emptied a little in two weeks.

[miff]

Chuck,

It seems that BC, with that weight, ran back to his 1 and Barbaro ran neg -2 or neg -3.He obviously moved forward. The card featured lots of fast horses that ran fast, whats the problem.

Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> It seems that BC, with that weight, ran back to
> his 1 and Barbaro ran neg -2 or neg -3.He
> obviously moved forward. The card featured lots of
> fast horses that ran fast, whats the problem.
>
> Mike


I seriously doubt Bluegrass Cat picked up weight, went further ground and ran back to his top. I think the key to the figure is Steppenwolfer, Did he run his 2 or thereabouts with all the trouble he had, but thats grist for the next one.

The Derby Raw Time was not a standout on the day. It was a decent raw time and the figure will be fast and fast for 10 marks, but certainly not in the elite range.

Thats from a guy that finished 16th and 7th though, at lower odds than he should have accepted.

Accolades to Bobphilo who was run off the site. I believe he was saying Barbaro was the real McCoy from the outset. Now theres plenty that will be willing to jump on his bandwagon after the Kentucky Derby. Bob, come back and talk to us about the Preakness. Is Barbaro a mortal lock?

CtC

[miff]

Chuck,


You must be beat up.He carried 4 more pounds than when he ran his 1. As far as the elite range, he will probably get the fastest TG derby figs ever.

Mike

[Uncle Buck]

I\'m afraid the Derby as it stands now with 20 horses banging into one another has basically turned into a Lottery. I would say going in yesterday that 50% of the entries had a fair shot to win.

From now one I will bet futures on 4 or 5, and play pick 4\'s, pick 3\'s and doubles.

The current format for exotics is too expensive and too risky to really feel good about hitting. Especially the tri and super.

For those who can afford to wheel, it\'s a better exotic angle but still very risky...

Looking forward to a cleaner, saner Preakness.

[Monarchos]

Forego actually is one of the all-time greats.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I dont understand all the hype trying to give Barbaro a Negative 2 Derby or better. Did you see how fast Joint Effort ran? What about Pussycat Doll or Tricky Trevor. 2:01 and change is fast, but on that track it wasn\'t special. What was noteworthy was being fairly close to the fractions and finishing as he did. However, methinks once again there was a little bit more to the story.

Remember Giacomo and the 2nd place horse last year? How many races did they win subsequently? This is a better horse, but some things went his way too.

I just dont\' see it. But it doesn\'t really matter give him a Negative 6 for all I care, the issue will be is it legit and if so is that effort what caused him to go off in the Preakness?

I just don\'t see it, but I didn\'t see Bluegrass Cat with a snowballs chance either.

[Michael D.]

i\'m no expert, but 2:01 and a length looks pretty damn fast to me. FC and WE did about the same, and Monarchos did better, but those tracks were extremely quick. i though the surface was neutral yesterday. that was the most impressive derby performance i have seen in many years.