Derby Post Mortem

[TGJB]

Michael-- it looks fast, all right. And given the beaten lengths, you get into the question of how many really bad numbers you give out. I\'m guessing nobody else ran a new top, next 3 around their tops, maybe BD gets a buried figure around his, rest get bad numbers-- 15 of \'em.

I also think he\'ll be odds-on. I also think Bernadini will be shorter.

CTC-- it killed me to delete a post knocking Raggies. But you gotta cool it.

[miff]

Chuck,

For a change I agree,Barbaro had some things go his way. He\'s cat quick from the gate and settles without pulling which is why things went his way. Check the replay of his dirt starts and I think you will see an exceptional athlete.How much he is spent by the effort remains to be seen.


There may be one minor negative,when I saw him work in florida, in Feb, he did not carry too much flesh. Is that why Matz spaces him so long in between starts? If so, two weeks may not be enough recoup time off that effort. We\'ll see.


Mike

[P-Dub]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>I\'m starting to think my opinion
> is driving the price down. SnS was actually the
> favorite. Sinister was 9-1. I expected almost 10
> more points on each.
>

Sure Clown, the entire world breathlessly waited for your selections and then pounded them down to favortism.

My Derby selections bombed,  save for the nice Oaks/Derby Double score.  But there were plenty of nice plays TG users should have had on the rest of the card.

3- Nolan\'s Cat paid a very fair 8.20
4- Rush Bay had a solid pattern and though paid only 2-1 was a solid key
5- With Distinction ran back to his nice sprint figs at 9-1,  while Tricky Trevor cost me the P3.  Congrats to Baze and Hollendorfer.
6- Joint Effort paid a nice $16 with the fastest fig in the race.
7- Mirabilis, 9- English Channel, 11- Yes Yes Yes (a fat 7-1) were all extremely playable.  

Great job TG, other than the Derby it was a very good day.

[marcus]

Even though he didn\'t show any signs if fatigue at all , you know he\'s got to be feeling yesterday and dealing w/ a degree of extreme dehydration for a long while to come .  The live race broadcast (+ replays) and still photography show no hint of any prblems to watchout for next time . The horses lines , front & back , where all excellent while striding and did not appear to overstretch or overextened any joints  or grab anything ( any vetrenarians out there ? ) but 2 weeks rest is insufficiant and not comencerate with that huge effort . My feeling is that Barbaro will not repeat that effort in the Preakness ...      

[Michael D.]

From a betting perspective:

I give Barbaro a 70% chance of being the fastest in the Preakness (coming off the huge new top he could react), and a 70% chance of getting the trip needed in the big field. You need both of these to win. Anything below even money is too low, and you have to try and beat him.

From a horse racing fan perspective:

I will be rooting for Barbaro. I was sure he would be a great turf horse, but was not so sure he would be a Ky Derby winning dirt horse. I simply underestimated  this guy. Let\'s face it - racing needs a star. I did not even make the trip out to Elmont when Funny Cide, War Emblem, or Smarty were gunning for the crown. I did not think any of the three were worthy of standing next to Secretariat, Slew, or Affirmed. If Barbaro dominates the Preakness, I will get on the LIRR, and I will buy a $2 ticket to win on Barbaro.

I want this guy to be great.


 

[NoCarolinaTony]

MO

Please read the race chart. the Horse you were looking at was his stablemate Showing up number 6 who saved ground. Prado was 5-6 wide on first turn in the DRF charts. And stayed wide.

I can\'t stand it when people talk without really knowing the facts.

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

The Best Value for your money is the huge exacta payouts.

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

Chuckles

I believe,  Keyed Entry had a mission. To try to set it up for BGC.
BGC didn\'t like Keeneland surface. If you \"throw out one race\" BCG line is not all that bad. Besides that you had to be nuts to not notice that Pletcher won 7 races from 15 starters, 3 seconds and two thirds to boot Fri-Sat.

Hey for all of you Derbyphiles it now 5 out of th last 6 years that a Kee runner finished second at a huge price except Lion Heart (BGC 30-1, Closing Argument 71-1,Lion Heart 3.4-1, Proud citizen 23-1, Invisible Ink 55-1). Why do you think that is?

NC Tony

[MO]

MO

Please read the race chart. the Horse you were looking at was his stablemate Showing up number 6 who saved ground. Prado was 5-6 wide on first turn in the DRF charts. And stayed wide.

I can\'t stand it when people don\'t talk without really knowing the facts.

NC Tony




Really? You do this for a living? How much you want to bet Prado was 3w on 1st turn and 3-2w on 2nd turn?

MO

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael-- it looks fast, all right. And given the
> beaten lengths, you get into the question of how
> many really bad numbers you give out. I\'m guessing
> nobody else ran a new top, next 3 around their
> tops, maybe BD gets a buried figure around his,
> rest get bad numbers-- 15 of \'em.
>
> I also think he\'ll be odds-on. I also think
> Bernadini will be shorter.
>
> CTC-- it killed me to delete a post knocking
> Raggies. But you gotta cool it.

It wasn\'t the mere fact the Arazi moniker is a Raggie.

The Arazi faker has been crude and those that lost on the Derby don\'t have tolerance right now for foul mannered red boarding raggies.

Between the aggravation of that ilk, a capricious two turn surface and drug addicted riders, now is not the time to respond to those folks with courtesy.

Let them win imaginary Derbies.

[miff]

Marcus,


It can take up to 72 hours after a race for something to show up with a horse.With all the attention on Barbaro, I\'m sure DRF and Bloodhorse guys will be all over the story of how he came out.


Mike

[miff]

MO and NC Tony,

No dog in this fight, but the chart caller says:


\"Barbaro.......raced under light restraint while between horses early,continued five or six wide around the first turn and into the backstretch...\"


In looking at the tape it doesn\'t look like 5 or 6 path but very tough to see clearly.

Jerry,

What path(s) did your guys come up with around the first turn.thanks

Mike

[oneshot]

I have been reading a lot of the postrace discussion regarding Barbaro, and have noticed only 1 reference of his final quarter of just over 24 seconds.  

To me, no matter what his final TG rating, a horse that can put in this fast a final quarter in a fairly fast race, tells me the horse is in super condition and certainly able to come back in 2 weeks in the Preakness.

[STB]

Another post-mortem...

We (few friends pooled together $625 and played tris and supers) threw out BGC\'s Kee race and had him in all underneath slots under SNS, APW, and the winner...alas, Steppenwolfer blew up all our tix. I thought he was ridiculously underlaid. Every know-nothing-about-racing/Derby\'s-my-one-bet-of-the-year person I talked to last week said the same thing, oh, that Steppenwolfer closed at a mile and an eighth he\'s gonna love the extra distance...to me he was the classic sucker, MOTO, Joe Public horse, on offer at about one third of what his true odds were. Thought he\'d be nowhere. As always in this race, you can be close to completely right, to the big score, only to blow it with one mistake.

On a karmic note...my seven year old son is a huge Edgar Prado fan, and he wants to be a jockey when he grow up...with a 6\'4\" father and a 5\'10\" mother, his prospects are dim, he\'s already as tall as some of these guys. Anyway, my son hangs around outside the jockey\'s room at Saratoga getting autographs and generally trying to converse with these guys, and the one guy who ever pays any attention to him is Prado. We got Prado to send an autographed picture for my son\'s birthday and he was more into that than any of the other presents. All last week he kept talking about Prado winning the Derby. When he did it, my son acted like HE hit the super. And then I had to listen to my wife tell me over and over how between our son\'s love of Prado, the plane crash survivors in the stands, etc., etc., that Barbaro was, as she put it, \"the karma play of the century.\" I guess we could have put $400 of our pool money to win, but that\'s not how we roll...one of these years we\'re gonna get one of these things, I swear...

Hansel, version 2006...Sweetnorthernsaint? Just an idea.

Was BD\'s trip THAT bad??? I know it wasn\'t ideal, but am I supposed to give him extra points because for once he didn\'t get his Charmin-soft lone-f six horse field trip? I thought the best horses were the ones who could win under adverse circumstances, but that\'s just me.

Red-board of the weekend...English Channel at 7/2, what\'s wrong with that, I oughtta have my head examined, played $60 of gimmicks with my own money, Milk It Mick blew me up in that one, but geez, 30 times $9, that\'s what we call bread-n-butta. Sometimes it\'s hard for me to employ normal, basic wagering strategy on days like this...especially in a house full of people, while drinking heavily...

The horses I was most off on...Sharp Humor, thought he\'d run well, and given he ran Barbaro to half a length and was four times the price, thought he was big value. Has he finished the race yet? AP Warrior as one of my three key-on-tops? Ouch. That\'s just embarassing...

Been watching the Derby for 20 years now, and I thought Barbaro was the most impressive winner I\'ve seen in those two decades. I thought the field was decent and well-matched and he won under a hand ride while finishing up in around :24. Hope he\'s The One, think it would be good for the game...

[manning]

MO Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> It should also be noted that after looking at the
> chart, virtually every horse had a troubled trip.
> Only Storm Treasure and Cause To Believe seemed to
> have a \"trouble free trip\".



Calling charts (especially for this race) has to be more difficult than it would seem, but if the chart is reporting trouble in this race, it\'s not even close.  

Barbaro had a great trip, in the 2-path thru the 1st turn, and in the clear 3w thru the 2nd turn;  Prado had a ton of horse turning into the stretch.

BG Cat also had a nice trip, saving ground up close with nobody near him early, and just following the winner for the last 3/8ths or so.  Dominguez deserves a lot of credit for this ride.  

It couldn\'t have worked out any better for the 2 closers Steppenwolfer & Jazil.  Neither one of them had any traffic to cry about, and Jazil never had to leave the rail the entire trip.  They both plodded home.

The most clear trouble seemed to hit Sweetnorthernsaint (away prob\'ly 14th or 15th after getting bumped, and putting in a run up the backstretch, but he was empty with a 1/4 mile still to run) & Bro Derek, who was very wide thruout.