Derby Post Mortem

[Uncle Buck]

I got killed. I could have cashed a small saver exacta had BGC not run second but oh well. Looked to me like SNS was riding Desormeaux. That horse was finished on the front stretch and still ran somewhat credible considering how much energy he expended fighting his jock and bouncing off other horses. He\'s gonna be one tired animal tonight...

Derek will see better days. Hopefully SNS will too.

Barabaro was the picture of class as is Prado and Matz.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I got killed. I could have cashed a small saver
> exacta had BGC not run second but oh well. Looked
> to me like SNS was riding Desormeaux. That horse
> was finished on the front stretch and still ran
> somewhat credible considering how much energy he
> expended fighting his jock and bouncing off other
> horses. He\'s gonna be one tired animal tonight...
>
> Derek will see better days. Hopefully SNS will
> too.
>
> Barabaro was the picture of class as is Prado and
> Matz.


I\'m still waiting for the Chart Uncle Buck. Unless he bounced SoS must have had trouble and I didn\'t see it. Shocker he missed the exotics. Sinister I figured was either win or bust and I did think Keyed Entry had the speed and post to make it tough on him, but he faded so badly I think it was more than P.Val having a flashback.

[hossgnat]

Sometimes the best horse in the Derby wins the Derby. Like so many other handicappers I just didn\'t think this was a superior horse.  My stack of losing mutuel tickets is painful, but I\'ll sleep well knowing I never really had a chance against this animal.  Pretty damn impressive.

Best of luck to Matz, Prado and company as they negotiate the forthcoming media frenzy. Hope they can keep their eyes on the prize.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

hossgnat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sometimes the best horse in the Derby wins the
> Derby. Like so many other handicappers I just
> didn\'t think this was a superior horse.  My stack
> of losing mutuel tickets is painful, but I\'ll
> sleep well knowing I never really had a chance
> against this animal.  Pretty damn impressive.
>
> Best of luck to Matz, Prado and company as they
> negotiate the forthcoming media frenzy. Hope they
> can keep their eyes on the prize.
>
>


I\'m happy for the winners. Class connections all the way. I was way off on Barbaro\'s Florida Derby. Guess in hindsight, winning at Gulfstream from the 10 hole should not be discounted. I bad mouthed him pretty good, but in the end was impressed enough with his works to put him over and under SoS. Lot of good it did.

I thought the time of the race was legit. He ascends to the head of the class. I really thought SoS and Sinister Minister were the best horses, so off that race I can\'t come up with a horse to beat him at Pimlico. Saint had enough trouble and ran well enough before the stretch fade that he could be given a second chance. Maryland is his home base, so if he comes out well, he could be the one to stop Barbaro, if thats possible. However, he was a better horse than he showed today. Maybe the Illinois Derby was harder than we thought.

I\'m hoping Sinister is o.k. I know everyone else was leery of the keeneland jinx, but they motored very hard for six furlongs and he eventually put his head in front before that monster inhaled him. TGJB noted something about the rail. I did not see it, but maybe inside was tough on the leaders. We can study that later, too shocked right now.

I was wrong about Bluegrass Cat too. He had the pace spot I\'d anticapated for SoS, getting first run on the tiring leaders if they tired. I still don\'t like him, but kudos to those that cashed pletcher at 30-1.

I also thought Bob and John would run better and that Storm Treasure would run a bit better.

I\'m an also ran and that hurts. Pretty much devasted by the 1st and 2nd place finishers and my bets ran 16th and a cover 7th. Other than not having a clue there, my other thoughts held pretty well. No consolation in thinking I had the best horse. Its Barbaro in retrospect.

P.Val needs to explain himself

22.3
46.

Nice ride Patrick, thanks for the heady play.

[high roller]

gotta love this fool called CTC, must have made 100 posts the last 3 weeks giving an opinion on everything under the sun, AND COMES AWAY WITH NO MONEY!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

high roller Wrote:
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> gotta love this fool called CTC, must have made
> 100 posts the last 3 weeks giving an opinion on
> everything under the sun, AND COMES AWAY WITH NO
> MONEY!
>
>

No money on the derby and a loser for the day, but it took the derby to make me a loser. Whats your story?

[congaree1]

Somebody else thinks your a retard.Well i\'ll be damned. Shut you suck for a while will ya.

[jim]

bear in mind that half-wits and better can only benefit
from contributors of ctc\'s ilk

[high roller]

this guy can\'t be a serious player, no serious player could possibly post hundreds of times, it looks like this guy posted with minutes of the race, he must be addicted to posting, get this he even talks to mike welsch of the drf, big name-dropper, PLEASE STOP WASTING EVERYONES TIME!

[congaree1]

High Roller,

This guy should be playing bingo in a retirement village in Florida.

[NoCarolinaTony]

That Was Coaches orders for BGC...almost worked too.

NC Tony

[MO]

There was nothing wrong with P VAL\'s ride. He had a strong hold on the horse thru the 1st turn and did not go as fast as everyone thought he would. He\'s a miler.

It should also be noted that after looking at the chart, virtually every horse had a troubled trip. Only Storm Treasure and Cause To Believe seemed to have a \"trouble free trip\".

Hats off to Edgar and Mr Matz. Class all the way.

At least I was correct in my weather prediction.

[jmetro]

I agree Mo, pace wasn\'t as fast as almost everyone was predicting.  I guess the fact that someone actually decided to take the lead away from SM makes them a bad rider.  If they had let SM go wire to wire he would be getting crucified for letting a horse steal the race.  

No win situation for P.VAl, or Mark Guidry for that matter.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

MO Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> There was nothing wrong with P VAL\'s ride. He had
> a strong hold on the horse thru the 1st turn and
> did not go as fast as everyone thought he would.
> He\'s a miler.
>
> It should also be noted that after looking at the
> chart, virtually every horse had a troubled trip.
> Only Storm Treasure and Cause To Believe seemed to
> have a \"trouble free trip\".
>
> Hats off to Edgar and Mr Matz. Class all the way.
>
> At least I was correct in my weather prediction.


For the record, I don\'t think P.Vals \"flashback\" ride cost Sinister a placing spot. Sinister faded too hard to have that opinion. But what was clear is that Keyed Entry was ratable and ran his best race in the Gotham rating under an expert. Prado did it again on Barbaro. Placed him wonderfully and gave him his best chance. It just turned out that he was clearly the best horse too. P.Val didn\'t come close to that level of ability. I don\'t bet jockeys, but I never again want to hear that substance altered psychedelic mentioned among the elite.

Note where the horse finished.

Of course Keyman is a miler. The irony is I talked Pletcher into running that wretch to ensure Saint got a nice pace scenario to run at. Then I got off Saint and the wretch and his rehab rider put the spike in me!

Who did you go with MO? I have a good record in the Derby, but his is my worst year in a while. I\'m going back to your technique, general silence. I\'m gonna post my horse one minute before post time next year. I\'m starting to think my opinion is driving the price down. SnS was actually the favorite. Sinister was 9-1. I expected almost 10 more points on each.

Who was your money burner?

[MO]

I bet $200 win and place and another $140 to show on Private Vow. If he wins, I make 10 grand tax free. I was concerned going in to the race that his running style might be comprimised as he is IMO a \"need the lead\" horse. Well when he didn\'t break, it was over.

I did not post earlier on this race because I think this crop sucked going in (and now you have an odds on favorite for the Preakness). The only other horse I liked was BD, but post 18 (really post 19) at 7-1 was no value.

I was there when Barbaro won the Florida Derby and he beat garbage. Not a grade 1 winner in the field. I think the race had a $40,000 claimer entered. He won from the 10 hole but I just didn\'t think it was an impressive race.

Again kudos to Edgar Prado who is without question the best active rider in America. He deserved this win.