Insanity

[SoCalMan2]

Has anybody handicapped the 11th race at Churchill on Saturday?  This is a NW2X? Jerry, I think you need to move the scale.

[SoCalMan2]

1) How fast was the 11th?  How did the figures earned compare to the Derby or the Sprint Stakes earlier in the card?  Do we need a scale change?

2) Has anybody seen anything reported on the massive bet on SNS in the last moments?  Somebody must have dropped an enormous piece of coin.  I read one place which said that CD would be investigating this betting pattern starting Wednesday but haven\'t seen anything more.  Inquiring minds want to know.

[high roller]

why is everyone so interested in this large bet? here\'s the explaination some sucker made a huge bet on the favorite in a 20 horse field, end of story! all you people fantasize about being that sucker instead of thinking of ways to make money.

[twoshoes]

From the NY Sun...


Sweetnorthernsaint\'s connections must be able to taste blood. They dropped a huge wager at the last second at the Derby, enough to drop the odds on the horse down from 7-1 to 5-1 in one click of the tote board. They\'ve done it before: Back in the Illinois, the odds moved from 2-1 to 6-5 two minutes before the post. Sure, owners are accustomed to losing money, so dropping some more cake on Derby day probably isn\'t the heart-wrenching experience it would be for, say, me.

No idea whatsoever if this is accurate.

[SoCalMan2]

Dear High Roller,

Thanks for the helpful response.  

To answer your question, I am interested because often, when one sees unusual bets, there ends up being a very interesting story behind it even if the story is not nefarious.  I assume you are an astute follower of the game, so you would be aware of all the stories that have arisen behind unusual bets over the last 6 or 7 years.  In the mid-90s in the Big Cap, a horse\'s odds dropped sharply in the last blink.  The horse went on to win, and it came out that the owner (a scottish fellow) had just decided to liven things up and bet an extra half a million on his horse (he ended up winning more on his bet than he did in winning the purse money).  I think the horse was Urgent Request (but I am not sure).  Nothing was ever believed to be nefarious there, but I recall the news articles on the fellow being very interesting.

Your explanation is a little off as the horse was not the favorite when the bet was made and only became the favorite after the bet was registered.  That is sort of what makes it more interesting.

As far as worrying about bad beats or trying to make a big score, while that is certainly a part of the game, the game also has some interesting ins and outs. People (maybe not you) like to sometimes discuss these things even if they do not have a bearing on the financial results. If people are not interested, they will not add anymore to the thread and it will just disappear.  Isn\'t that cool.

Best,

SCM2

[JJP]

It is true there was a big drop in odds before the Illinois Derby.  Considering the $300,000 winners share in that race, you really wonder if it was worth the risk to bet so much and only get 6-5.  Yeah, in retrospect they won that one but were certainly tearing up tickets last weekend.

[high roller]

bet downs are not unusual in the derby, it has huge pools and attracts huge players, a few years back indian charlie was bet off the board in the last 5 minutes, lion heart was heavily bet, sweetnsaint, all of these did not win.

it is interesting but not unusual.

[SoCalMan2]

I would think they could have sold the ticket on eBay for something. I would probably frame it  It would be sort of cool to have something that was at one point worth a million bucks and then poof!  Sorry to be so morbid.  

[JJP]

Morbid?  He wasn\'t on my tickets.  I found it quite pleasant actually.

[SoCalMan2]

I would view wanting to frame some other person\'s losing million dollar ticket as morbid.

[handicapper77]

It is very possible thaty this was nothing more than the off track money being \"dumped in\"....the off track doesn\'t just flow into the pool

[NoCarolinaTony]

Kasept was that you??

NC Tony