Non Winner of 2 Lifetime

[richiebee]

Sunday night/ Monday morning, the IPOD cranking Springsteen at full blast, TGs and PPs spread all over my desk, trying to see the light without being blinded by it, another night at work, maybe at 3AM I\'ll go out to the Halal stand on 53rd Street, by then there\'ll only be 20 or 25 club refugees waiting on line for the best $5 plate of food in NY.

It aint Chuckles\' \"War Room\", but some beneficent corporate soul is paying me to do this, and providing benefits for me and the wife, so I guess I\'ll make the best of it.

After the Derby last year, being alive with 5 Derby runners in some lucrative multiple race wagers and never having a chance to win with any of the 5 at any stage of the race, I looked at Giacomo\'s PPs and couldn\'t be angry at myself or anyone. Giacomo was NW2LT, had never Beyered over 100, had a lifetime best TG of 4, sired by Holy Bull, not my favorite 10 furlong stallion.

Long story short (not my style as you all well know), I didn\'t slap my palm against my forehead after last year\'s Derby and say \"Man, I could have had this f-----g horse!\"

It is rather unlikely that a NW2LT will win the Derby 2 years running, but tonight for some reason I am looking at Jazil. Both Jazil and Giac placed in stakes in addition to breaking their maidens going into the Derby. Jazil will go into the Derby off a 97 Beyer in the Wood, Giac had recorded a 95 in the Santa Anita Derby in his Derby prep (hey if you need the TG#s go where it says \"Order Online\").

Giacomo accomplished more as a 2YO; Jazil was slightly faster in his 3YO tries.

For all of you astrology buffs, Jazil was foaled Feb 11, Giac Feb 16.

Without sharing proprietary TG information, the only stallion with a runner in this year Derby who\'s 3Y0s are as fast as Seeking the Gold\'s is AP Indy.

Jazil, when partnered by Fernando Jara, has already developed the late closing heart stopping running style that Giacomo utilized to go past the tired and weary and the distance challenged in last year\'s Derby. Were Jazil\'s fast finishes (especially in the Nov 12 AQ maiden race and the Wood) optical illusions? Will have to research that further. Is Jazil an Aq horse for course? He did run a decent race at GP.

Will there be a lot of speed to set up his late run at CD? Does the Pope wear a funny hat? Was World War II noisy?

All of this bears further investigation. Baffert will be drawing plenty of attention to himself and his runners between now and May 6. I project B and J, who beat Jazil 1/2 length to be between 10- 15/1. Jazil could be twice that.

Is he my top pick? No. But I think he could factor at odds in excess of 30/1.