article by randy giles-The SeeSaw Effect

[high roller]

The SeeSaw Effect

Oh Brother, here we go again. Could this be the return of Lost in The Fog - he's parading around as 3 year old in a zipped up Brother Derek horse suit?

See Saw! Slow pace.....big Beyer (BRIS, Thoro- Graph, Sheets – take your pick).....up, down. Unreliable speed figure. Don't fall for them.

James Quinn said it right, "Thus, whenever the pace of the race has been unusually fast or unusually slow, the resulting speed figures can be outrageously false.

Let's do last weekend's Derby prep race pace report. You will notice the, uh, playground affect. (I use the Beyer figures here and before because I believe they should be the industry standard. Use any other fig you want but let's use the Beyer figs so we know what we're comparing.)

Illinois Derby – pace of the race Slow 9 – Beyer 109 – Sweetnorthernsaint
Santa Anita Derby – pace of the race Slow 5 – Beyer 108 – Brother Derek
Wood Memorial – pace of the race Fast 9 – Beyer 93 – Bob and John

Now let's have some fun. Let's adjust these speed figures for pace of the race. And let's say that the adjusted speed figure is the number the horse in question would have run if the pace of the race had been par. In other words, let's bring them back to ground zero and see where we are. I used the Beyer length adjustments for 1 mile and an 1/8 th, of course.

Sweetnorthernsaint – 109 Beyer - 93 Giles
Brother Derek – 108 Beyer - 99 Giles
Bob and John - 93 Beyer - 108 Giles

I know, I know, it's heresy, a joke even, but the inverse relationship between pace and final time is alive and well, as you can see, so I just can't resist.

But back to Brother Derek - He does not own the only early pace running style in this year's Ken tucky Derby. There's a bunch. Will he show another dimension? Can he handle a fast pace? We just don't know. But speculating on racehorses is not really about picking THE winner. It's about backing a horse that has a better (and realistic) chance of winning than the odds the betting public has given it. All the handicapping tools we use are there to do one thing, assess value.

Brother Derek will be a screaming underlay. The pundits will tell you that his final fraction demonstrates that he's a real racehorse. It has to be fast! The pace was slow so the final fraction has to be fast. There's just no way around it.

Win – throw him out. Exacta – throw him out. Trifecta – throw him out. Pick 3, pick 4, pick 6 – throw him out. But Randy? What if he wins, shows something like more versatility and/or superior pace ability? Well, I would say you did the right thing, anyway. You threw him out. You didn't reinforce the piss-poor behavior that will only send you to the poorhouse if you continue that kind of practice long term. Reward yourself with one of those mint juleps.

[jbelfior]

Remember the last Wood Memorial figure that came back slow....TAPIT\'s Wood. Still waiting for someone to come out of that race and run well.

The final splits are simply too slow, regardless of how strong the early pace was or how tiring the track may have been.

Got to hand it to Baffert. He cranked Bob & John to win a $750K purse versus one of the worst Wood fields ever assembled. Now,over the next 2 weeks,he\'ll have you believing it was just what B&J needed.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Lance]

\"Remember the last Wood Memorial figure that came back slow....TAPIT\'s Wood. Still waiting for someone to come out of that race and run well.\"

I\'d say Eddington came back to run a few barnbuners -- Pimlico Special, GP Handicap, etc.  

Great post, High Roller. Entertaining AND intelligent. Thanks.

[jbelfior]

Lance---

Good point. i guess I had to wait so long (a full year) that I forgot.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Lance]

I hear you, Joe. The 2004 Wood was a lousy affair. Master David is running for tags these days and still can\'t win. Eddington turned out to be very a nice horse, but it\'s my view that Hennig did a poor job with him during his early 3-year-old campaign.

This year\'s Wood was an odd affair, and I\'m not dismissing Bob & John just yet.  He stepped out of his comfort zone on Saturday and pressed a hot pace, because if he hadn\'t, Keyed Entry would have been gone. I thought it was a huge effort. What\'s more, the horse has already shown that he\'s capable of coming home fast when allowed to go slower early. In the Sham, his closing fractions were :24 2/5 and :12 3/5. Come Derby day, it won\'t be his job to keep the speed horses honest, and he may just settle into a groove and throw 12\'s all the way around the track. Just my take.

Really curious to see his number for the Wood.

[jbelfior]

I like a different take on things. As I have always preached on this forum, you cannot win without numbers and you cannot win just using numbers.

Interesting viewpoint you have. I was at Aqueduct on Saturday and as soon as BOB & JOHN went after KEYED ENTRY into the first turn, my reaction was that Baffert had him cranked to win. He could have easily let B&J run his own race and close for second and then get ready for the big one. Similar to what Ward did with MONARCHOS versus CONGAREE. My thoughts are that Baffert knows he does not have a prime contender for the Derby and what\'s wrong with a $750K purse.

You may counter with the point that B&J needed a tough race and that would be fine. Baffert did that with SILVER CHARM. Still would have liked to see a better finishing time, even if he was running out of his comfort zone and on a tiring track. He made the McLaughlin horse look a lot better than he is. Makes me wonder how far he really wants to go.

Look at it this way. If you\'re right, you\'ll be right at better than 10-1.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Lance]

\"My thoughts are that Baffert knows he does not have a prime contender for the Derby and what\'s wrong with a $750K purse.

You might be right. For what it\'s worth, my sources tell me with certainty that Baffert prefers Point Determined for the Derby...

Who knows.

[TGJB]

The night after the 1998 Wood I met Baffert for the first time. We were sitting in the lounge at the Soho Grande, and he told me how high he was on Indian Charlie, who had just won the SA Derby. I told him keep an eye on your other horse, Real Quiet, he\'s the right kind...

[Lance]

Good stuff.

Trainers sometimes race with blinkers on too, I guess.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

high roller Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The SeeSaw Effect
>
> Oh Brother, here we go again. Could this be the
> return of Lost in The Fog - he's parading around
> as 3 year old in a zipped up Brother Derek horse
> suit?
>
> See Saw! Slow pace.....big Beyer (BRIS, Thoro-
> Graph, Sheets – take your pick).....up, down.
> Unreliable speed figure. Don't fall for them.
>
> James Quinn said it right, "Thus, whenever the
> pace of the race has been unusually fast or
> unusually slow, the resulting speed figures can be
> outrageously false.
>
> Let's do last weekend's Derby prep race pace
> report. You will notice the, uh, playground
> affect. (I use the Beyer figures here and before
> because I believe they should be the industry
> standard. Use any other fig you want but let's use
> the Beyer figs so we know what we're comparing.)
>
> Illinois Derby – pace of the race Slow 9 – Beyer
> 109 – Sweetnorthernsaint
> Santa Anita Derby – pace of the race Slow 5 –
> Beyer 108 – Brother Derek
> Wood Memorial – pace of the race Fast 9 – Beyer 93
> – Bob and John
>
> Now let's have some fun. Let's adjust these speed
> figures for pace of the race. And let's say that
> the adjusted speed figure is the number the horse
> in question would have run if the pace of the race
> had been par. In other words, let's bring them
> back to ground zero and see where we are. I used
> the Beyer length adjustments for 1 mile and an 1/8
> th, of course.
>
> Sweetnorthernsaint – 109 Beyer - 93 Giles
> Brother Derek – 108 Beyer - 99 Giles
> Bob and John - 93 Beyer - 108 Giles
>
> I know, I know, it's heresy, a joke even, but the
> inverse relationship between pace and final time
> is alive and well, as you can see, so I just can't
> resist.
>
> But back to Brother Derek - He does not own the
> only early pace running style in this year's Ken
> tucky Derby. There's a bunch. Will he show another
> dimension? Can he handle a fast pace? We just
> don't know. But speculating on racehorses is not
> really about picking THE winner. It's about
> backing a horse that has a better (and realistic)
> chance of winning than the odds the betting public
> has given it. All the handicapping tools we use
> are there to do one thing, assess value.
>
> Brother Derek will be a screaming underlay. The
> pundits will tell you that his final fraction
> demonstrates that he's a real racehorse. It has to
> be fast! The pace was slow so the final fraction
> has to be fast. There's just no way around it.
>
> Win – throw him out. Exacta – throw him out.
> Trifecta – throw him out. Pick 3, pick 4, pick 6 –
> throw him out. But Randy? What if he wins, shows
> something like more versatility and/or superior
> pace ability? Well, I would say you did the right
> thing, anyway. You threw him out. You didn't
> reinforce the piss-poor behavior that will only
> send you to the poorhouse if you continue that
> kind of practice long term. Reward yourself with
> one of those mint juleps.
>

Jerry is gonna hate this, but you can take those Giles figures and file them in the circular recepticle.

You can\'t go with pars. Pars assume a track speed that is static. Take the advice of the gardener. Check your weather conditions.

What unadultered drivel.

receptacle even

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Remember the last Wood Memorial figure that came
> back slow....TAPIT\'s Wood. Still waiting for
> someone to come out of that race and run well.
>
> The final splits are simply too slow, regardless
> of how strong the early pace was or how tiring the
> track may have been.
>
> Got to hand it to Baffert. He cranked Bob &
> John to win a $750K purse versus one of the worst
> Wood fields ever assembled. Now,over the next 2
> weeks,he\'ll have you believing it was just what
> B&J needed.
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.

Wait a second. Keyed Entery was in that race and he had beaten First Samurai. Jazil was in that race and he ran a game second to Corinthian. They were 1 and 2 Tgraph speed horses. Look again.