Anyone Keeping Score?

[richiebee]

Can anyone out there provide, for the last 5 or 10 years, which horse has the highest Beyer going into the Derby? The lowest TG? The lowest Rag #?

Was Giacomo really the eighteenth fastest horse going into last years race?

Just curious.

Any attempt to tie or convert these figures to Timeform Ratings or the price of diesel fuel in Texas will not be appreciated.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Can anyone out there provide, for the last 5 or 10
> years, which horse has the highest Beyer going
> into the Derby? The lowest TG? The lowest Rag #?
>
> Was Giacomo really the eighteenth fastest horse
> going into last years race?
>
> Just curious.
>
> Any attempt to tie or convert these figures to
> Timeform Ratings or the price of diesel fuel in
> Texas will not be appreciated.

I think you can go to Archives here for Tgraph figures from the last five years or so.

2004 Tapit, Birdstone and Action this day all had figures in the 98 Beyer Range
2005 Andromedas Hero and Spanish Chestnut had Beyers in the 94 range.

Giacomo had a 98 in his p.p.s from a 3rd place effort in the Sham.

Both Lion Heart and The Cliff\'s Edge had faster Beyers than Smarty had and Birdstone deprived Smarty of the Triple Crown with a good Belmont.

I think I see where your going. I\'ve got my hands full determining who has the speed now. In allocating time, figuring out where Beyer went wrong or right in the past isn\'t on my agenda. I\'m gonna voice concern where I think hes off base now though.

p.s. I can recall one his figs were correct upon. He had War Emblem fastest if i\'m not mistaken.

[RICH]

lowest TG bellamy road -5 last year

[miff]

Richiebee,

He was 18th fastest, ran a huge top in the Derby(improved app 7 lenghts).As a pisano,I think, you should be ashamed that you did not cash on an Italian horse even though he couldn\'t outrun a fat man going in.


Mike

[BitPlayer]

Richie –

Last year, I put a bunch of TG\'s Derby archive data on a spreadsheet to play with.  The following are, according to my spreadsheet, the horses with the best 3yo tops going into the Derby for the archive years.  Where two horses were tied, I listed them both.  I apologize in advance for any errors.

1997 – Pulpit
1998 – Indian Charlie / Chilito
1999 – First American
2000 – Fusaichi Pegasus / Hal\'s Hope
2001 – Millenium Wind
2002 – Came Home
2003 – Empire Maker
2004 – Smarty Jones
2005 – Bellamy Road

I\'m not sure what this all proves other than that there\'s more to handicapping the Derby with TG than finding the horse with the best top.

[richiebee]

Miff:

    No, I\'m a pre Verrazzano non Italian native Staten Islander. But even if I cranked up Sinatra in my Caddy on the way over to Momma\'s Sunday afternoon for meatballs and gravy, it still would have been tough to come up with Giacomo. As I recall he was NW2LT going into the Derby and as such one of the first I eliminated.

[richiebee]

Bit:

   I really appreciate the recap. I am on record as saying that many effective handicapping tools/tenets just aren\'t as effective when looking at the Derby. Most who would say that performance figures become more effective in relation to the quality of a race (animals sounder and thereby more consistent) are willing to say the Derby is an exception. The average field size for US racing is probably somewhere between 7- 9 horses, in the Derby 20 might go; and while some of these animals might be better bred than others for 10 furlongs, none are really proven at the trip.

   I know you are a pattern guy and at least you will have a few horses that have some 2YO races to work with; it seems like the field this year has a little more seasoning in terms of number of starts than last year.

   Surprised that a full gate shows up to face Lawyer Ron in the Ark Derby; I guess the thinking is that LR is merely prepping and will not be asked for 100%.

   

[NoCarolinaTony]

Richie,

Email me about Firday Keeneland. I am leaving at 10:30 for the track.

Nc Tony

[BitPlayer]

Richie -

Here\'s a link to a DRF article that contains information about the performance of the best-Beyer horses in the Derby, going back (perhaps not coincidentally) to Lil E Tee:

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=73679&subs=0&arc=0

[richiebee]

Bit:

    Thanks for the link.

    Should be a great betting Derby, can\'t imagine the favorite going off at odds less than 5/1.

    Don\'t know if he has a Derby ride, but if I liked Sinister Minister, best case scenario might be P Val on Sinister with Gomez sticking to Bob and John.  

[big18741]

Gomez on Bob and John

If Bejarano takes Point Determined probably Victor Espinoza on Sinister Minister.

[richiebee]

Big:

    Gomez\'s choice or Baffert\'s?

[big18741]

I think the Gomez agent,although Gomez is also Bafferts go to jock.

Gomez has ridden all 3 of the Baffert derby horses once.He\'s been working Sinister Minister and Bob and John in the mornings.Worked Bob and John again today.Victor Ezpinoza worked Point Determined.Victor riding Balance last weekend moved him to 3rd in the pecking order which may not be a bad thing if he ends up on Sinister Minister.

I don\'t think its firmed up yet,but it sounds like thats the way its going to fall.

[Bally Ache]

Does Baffert ever use Valenzuela?

[miff]

Baffert uses P.Val sometimes.It would be interesting to see, arguably, the best dead send jockey on Sin Minister.