Deletion

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

This is a very exciting time of year. The final 9 pole Triple Crown Preps are heavy with significance provided they are formulated properly.

Now, we have Andrew Beyer TWICE adjusting figures in 2 different races at this distance in respect to the efforts of Bob and John. Beyer clearly can\'t make his mind up, while there are scores of others out there who have assigned faster figures for those races and who are sticking to them. Beyer changes his tune and his lemmings hum along thinking to themselves, \"There, he got it right that time.\" If we can\'t comment upon the accuracy of figures or the probability that they are mis-assigned what good is it to participate in this forum?

If whoever is deleting posts pertaining to the joke that Andrew Beyer has become thinks that Beyer is correct and that the Wood was slow, step on up to the plate and face the heater of scrutiny that this board brings. Tell the board what you believe the Wood figure was. You\'ve been on deck while the other figure makers have chimed in. It\'s time to take your cuts in the manner of debate. Of course that assumes this really is an intellectual forum.

[marcus]

what came to light that made beyer change those numbers ? ctc - any backround on this ?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

marcus Wrote:
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> what came to light that made beyer change those
> numbers ? ctc - any backround on this ?

I really don\'t know what the genesis of the revision was. It could have been an arithmatic error for all that I know. It could have to do with revised variant. The Wood once again was the only 2-turn race and any one sample race on a card is fraught with peril. Maybe it was an \"artistic\" call. Beyer just couldn\'t figure Bob and John could win a Grade I in slower time than he finished 3rd out West.

For me this really is a projection race. However, with Jazil\'s ground saving trip and the late up against Keyed Entry I think you have two horses there with a basis to assign a figure upon and when you do I think it puts Bob and John in the Zero range or better even with impediments he faced.

Too Much Bling ran an exceptional race compared to the Carter. The biggest unknown variable to me is did the track change speed late? I suspect it slowed down, but I\'m not sure. If it didn\'t, Too Much Bling is gonna be something special if he can stayed glued together.

One last thing. It is far better to have the integrity to change a number when the evidence is compelling to change it. That takes character and I was a bit tough on Beyer for doing the right thing. I don\'t know why hes having problems with those races though.

[miff]

\"One last thing. It is far better to have the integrity to change a number when the evidence is compelling to change it. That takes character and I was a bit tough on Beyer for doing the right thing. I don\'t know why hes having problems with those races though\"




Chuck,

It goes (again) to what figure makers sometimes believe, Beyer in this case,what a horse should run as oppposed to what he did run because it says Grade 1 on the top of the form. The Wood was slow! The fast pace(for this day) caused a meltdown with the last 3/8ths going 40.50( normally unheard of for this type race). The surface was not that slow,it was swirly windy. Check all the raw times on the day which was given minus .45(2+ lenghts slow)

Bob and John beat Jazil(elig nw1x and KE who could not run down a tiring Like Now, previous start). Going into the race,why did the winner have to run zero-ish to beat that field? Thats why Beyer changed? Pure Voodoo.

Another subject, please do not forget that Too Much Bling had the poster \"perfect trip\" sitting perfect off a duel and making his run wide.The trip guys can\'t wait to tackle him next start depending on where he shows up.I agree because of ground he ran a top.Incidentally, two more Cal shippers came 3k miles, no bute, and ran tops. Add them to the BC day list.Great angle,no?

The Carter was a Grade 1 in name only. The winner was beaten last start by a former and but rather fast claimer Kazoo, so comparing the Bayshore to the Carter seems moot.

[TGJB]

CTC-- I deleted those posts because they were obnoxious and had no other content. Knock it off. And knock off the unnecessary obnoxious charaterizations, even if there is content on the post. It annoys me, it annoys others, and I\'m going to be deleting the posts when I see them. The whole posts.

You commenting on Beyer making figures is like a guy in a bar commenting on Bill Parcells coaching. It has exactly the same weight. You don\'t have the scouting reports, haven\'t looked at game film, don\'t have the experience, etc. He and I may or may not get some wrong, but there are more things on heaven and figure making than are dreamt of in your philosophy.

Haven\'t done the Haw day yet, but once you factor in ground loss, Andy has the relationship between the Wood and the SA Derby close to right. That\'s the RELATIONSHIP between THOSE TWO-- I\'m not commenting on the absolute figures or their relationship with other races.

By the way, someone listed some BRIS figures here the other day. I never looked at them before, but Thoroughbred Daily News has started running a weekly ad with the top stakes BRIS figures every week, and I took a look at the last couple of weeks. They are terrible-- simply awful. I suspect they use some automated means to make them, but regardless, some are WAY off.

Miff-- please. For the hundreth time, I don\'t use the grade of the race to make figures, not the way you mean. (Stake horses do run a higher percentage of good numbers, something we find, rather than assume. But we do NOT give out faster numbers because a race is a GI). We do the figures off the horses in the race, especially when there is weather, and only one two turn race-- it would be crazy to make any correlations about connecting it with any other races. (Hmmm... anybody want to ask Len how they did it)?

For the record, the Wood was a snap. The entire range of possibilities was half a point. I\'ll think about posting it, but I really don\'t like giving out all this info.

Believe it or not, the SA race was much tougher, mostly due to the small field.

[miff]

Jerry,

With due respect, you may say that but if the Wood was a NW1x, I\'d bet your Wood figure would be slower. Did you take into account that there were NO real runners in the race, so to speak.On this occasion,I was referring to Andy raising the fig on the pedestrian Wood. I do not know yours and understand that you do not wish to post proprietary data for business reasons, so I for one will wait.

Your analogy re Parcells is over the top.I know all credible speed fig products, especially yours. By no means are you guys Parcells \"like\" given the differences amongst you on many occasions.Lots of theories, opinions in all figs.Very scientifically inexact undertaking.


Mike

[Boscar Obarra]

 Hard to beleive that you guys are arguing about a figure in the slop.  You really think the number is gonna be without flaw?

  Guess so. I made numbers, most slop is next to impossible  (maybe something like the tartan track was easy) , and if the number comes up clean its probably an accident.

  Estimates, thats all you got.

[TGJB]

Miff-- you said with due respect, so I\'ll be nice. The different PROFESSIONAL figure makers are the equivalent of different NFL coaches, though some are much better than others. Those who are not pros do not have correct beaten length conversions, ground loss info, etc. (and some of the \"pros\" don\'t either, for that matter), or the experience and knowledge about how to treat them.  CTC saying \"not even close\" about Beyer\'s work, under those circumstances, is insulting and annoying.

On the other, if those same horses had been  running in a nw1x, I would have treated it exactly the same way. As you might have noticed, I\'ve given out some big numbers in those races. If you haven\'t, wait til you see the number I\'m going to end up giving Zito\'s horse today at Keenland.

[miff]

Jerry,

I was referring to giving what they ran, like the Wood,SLOWER figs. Without knowing, I\'ll guess the winner ran a top on TG. Now he did win, but ran painfully slow \"in total\"perhaps due to the rather hot pace he chased.But,since pace is not an issue in your methodology, how do you reconcile that performance against the clock,adjusted, as the winners best ever performance.

If he did not top, then I did not correctly estimate how you would treat the race.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

TGJB Wrote:
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> CTC-- I deleted those posts because they were
> obnoxious and had no other content. Knock it off.
> And knock off the unnecessary obnoxious
> charaterizations, even if there is content on the
> post. It annoys me, it annoys others, and I\'m
> going to be deleting the posts when I see them.
> The whole posts.
>

Jerry, maybe I have been over-animated over it. I am genuinely excited about this Derby. Nothing unusal, I always get excited about the Derby. But, I\'m not the one changing my mind on this. Andy Beyer is, and he\'s changing it after I point out that he\'s got a problem. It\'s not me saying \"Wow Beyer waffled again\" after he makes the correction. I\'m saying he got it wrong and then he \"corrects\". It\'s tantamount to the fan writing the coach and saying \"Depite all your game film and scouts and coordinators you blew it coach.\" and the coach admitting he did blow it. Different scenario entirely from saying \"The coach lost that game, with no commentary from the coach\".

Now, some of those guys second guessing the Coach could have out coached the coach. Just being in the Coaches seat doesn\'t mean the coach can coach well in the big games. Wood Day is a big game and when a coach can\'t win the big one its time for a new coach. Its why I don\'t use Beyers. I now use the one you think is flawed but I modify them with some of your considerations and some others I won\'t belabor here.

As far as comparing Beyer to Parcells all I can say is \"What has Parcells done lately?\" From my perspective he\'s been living off his Giant\'s reputation. I wouldn\'t hire him now and I don\'t use Beyer. The game has left them both.

I understand not wanting to discuss proprietary data. Thats fine, no issue thats exclusively your call. With luck we\'ll find out after the fact anyway and if I\'m wrong I\'ll say so. That was a fast Wood. The track was slow and they ran very fast early. Maybe miff needs to know when a single two turn race is on the card it can lead to some very odd results due to lack of uniformity respecting each of the two turns. Miff\'s position is \"Slow Wood, Bob and John has been slow, however, he may hit the board anyway.\" My position is \"He\'s fast and he\'ll be there with a pair. Leave him out at your peril.\"

Its hard enough to pick the winner of the Derby with accurate 9-pole figures. Start fudging those figures up and you may as well throw darts blindfolded. Thats why I\'m animated and irked. Despite the yucks, this aint the Circus.

[miff]

Chuck,

Don\'t know what figs you use but B and J never ran fast on any speed figs I have seen.From memory he\'ll go into the derby with at least 7 to 10 faster depending on his Wood fig.

Doesn\'t mean he can\'t win. Check out Giacomo last year going in like 18th fastest, if memory serves.

[SoCalMan2]

For what it is worth, while Bob and John was slow looking going in, he also had a very nice pattern which suggested he was ready to move forward. The question was how much.  I know Robespierre wrote about this on the Ragozin board pre-race, but I think the same analysis could have been reached using Thorograph -- he was slow but ready to make a forward jump.

All of that being said, I know nothing about figure making and I have no idea how to evaluate the performances.  So I cannot say anything about what he may or may not have run.  That is why I pay figure makers for their figures.  I feel they can evaluate performances better than me (at least Thorograph and Ragozin can -- the others I do not even look at so I have no idea).

As they use to say in law school, the mills of the gods grind slow but they grind fine. We\'ll discover the answers eventually.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
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> As they use to say in law school, the mills of the
> gods grind slow but they grind fine. We\'ll
> discover the answers eventually.

As they also said: \"look at the person seated left of you and the person seated right of you. Come next year one of them will be missing.\" I guess thats alot like picking the Derby