Unscientific Study

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Just quickly perused the following link of 2006 Triple Crown Nominees. What became apparent in considering purchases is that there is a \"Big 3\" in American Trainers, at least for those sales purchases nominated to the Triple Crown in 2006.

Without a doubt the leader in dollars spent and number of horses nominated was Toddini Pletcher.

Bob Baffert followed in second, mainly due to the fact that an 8 million dollar Storm Cat purchase \"Mr. Sekeguchi\" was in his column. But for that horse, the 2nd place leader in the sales may have been, drum roll please...

D Wayne Lukas

Additionally, Mr Lukas had a large number of nominations of nice pedigree Overbrook Farm stock homebreds. Lukas clearly had gotten the least out of his runners of the three.

Baffert certainly was a loser in the money spent vs. earnings returned, however he was far better than either Pletcher or Lukas.

Zito appeared to trail these 3 in sales dollars spent considerably.

I have no data, this was an eyeball study.

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2006/futures/pps/tc_noms8.pdf

[tmon]

Well Mr. Sekeguchi did break it\'s maiden last week nicely at SA.

[Silver Charm]

>I have no data, this was an eyeball study.

You need to get your eyes checked.

Lukas doesn\'t really have the client base any longer to be a big sales player and several of the Overbrooks are in the hands of former assistants Pletcher and Stewart. How has Shug been doing lately with Derby horses from all of those Phipps Blue Blood mares? Including the ones they didn\'t even nominate, are unraced, or the mare was barren. How about Farish? He\'s due.

The point being this is not a very exact science and it is a rich mans game. Baffert didn\'t buy the $8.0M turtle, someone else did and gave it to him. Why should it count against his record. However he started with about 50 expensive well-bred two year-olds and will end up with two Derby runners.

He probably has beaten the odds.

If The Green Monkey doesn\'t win the Derby next year is it Pletchers fault.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >I have no data, this was an eyeball study.
>
> You need to get your eyes checked.

Hey, the stats are there in the link. You just have to update them for Saturday in your head. In other words, you have to add lots more money to Baffert. He won 6 races Saturday. Two stakes. You can count the nominees, the dollars spent and the dollars earned if you wish. If I\'m off, I\'m not off by much.

> Lukas doesn\'t really have the client base any
> longer to be a big sales player and several of the
> Overbrooks are in the hands of former assistants
> Pletcher and Stewart.

Most of the Overbrooks are in Lukas\'s care. Its in the link.

> How has Shug been doing
> lately with Derby horses from all of those Phipps
> Blue Blood mares? Including the ones they didn\'t
> even nominate, are unraced, or the mare was
> barren.

Shug has one nominee per a quick persusal that has not started. Phipps stable has made a huge mistake in recent years in what stallion they send their mares to. Thats probably part of it. But my guess is Shug\'s averages better ROI with his one horse than all of Lukas\'s and Pletchers combined.

How about Farish? He\'s due.
>
> The point being this is not a very exact science
> and it is a rich mans game. Baffert didn\'t buy the
> $8.0M turtle, someone else did and gave it to him.
> Why should it count against his record. However he
> started with about 50 expensive well-bred two
> year-olds and will end up with two Derby runners.

> He probably has beaten the odds.

I believe Baffert had fewer nominees than Lukas, but he appeared to have spent more money. These horses are bid upon with consultation from the trainers in instances where they train for the buyer. Should a trainer be able to spot a bargain? Yeah he should. Should a trainer know when to dissuade a client from a horse. Yeah, I think he should. But thats certainly not a skill Lukas or his disciples have.
 
> If The Green Monkey doesn\'t win the Derby next
> year is it Pletchers fault.

Yes it most certainly is. The Green Monkey is a 16 million dollar Forestry isn\'t he and Pletcher has all the chemistry money can buy. You bet its his fault. He sure as hell better win and win big with that horse. Thats part of deal.

[richiebee]

Chucko del Sol:

  I know this is a Derby string, and your study was \"unscientific\", but nobody is going to compare you to Federico Tesio if you are going to make a statement like \"Phipps stable has made a huge mistake in recent years in what stallion they send their mares to\".

  Somehow, despite all this mismanagement, Team Phipps has produced among others, Personal Ensign, My Flag, Storm Flag Flying, Inside Information, Finder\'s Fee, Dancing Spree, Pleasant Home, etc.

  The emphasis for Phipps seems to be on the Breeders Cup rather than the Triple  Crown, on developing a solid broodmare band instead of some fast and prematurely retired stallions. Pleasant Home is a fine example of the Phipps emphasis on the distaff side; she descends from one of the great runners/  producers in the last 25 years, the great Gold Beauty (Dayjur, Maplejinsky, etc)

  In terms of determining who burned the most cash on unfulfilled Derby dreams, maybe you should look to the (middle) East.  

[Silver Charm]

>Somehow, despite all this mismanagement, Team Phipps has produced among others, >Personal Ensign, My Flag, Storm Flag Flying, Inside Information, Finder\'s Fee, >Dancing Spree, Pleasant Home, etc.

You missed the point but why would I be surprised. You are looking at their results over about a twenty year period. The three Trainers you mentioned in your \"unscientic study\" have had a few good ones over that same time period themselves. The Phipps bred about 40-50 mares to the best stallions in the world and produce about one or two top notch runners a year on average. Similar to the Baffert average I mentioned.

If Trainer Pletcher can have as good a year as last year with Flower Alley and get a couple of more resume wins with Harlington, the millions owner Melnyk has put into the game will be returned in $15-25M of Stallion fees.

Nobody had a better year last year than Ritchie and Servis the year before that. That is the game the owners who approach those threes trainers you mentioned are asking them to play.

The real measure of success would be @sum(Total Purses won + Total stud fees earned + (Total Value of offspring - stud fee)) - (Total dollars spent at Sales + Total Value of home-breds raised (regardless if they race))= (Net Loss) or Profit on Racing Investment

Give me that one and you have a valuation that is rellevant.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chucko del Sol:
>
>   I know this is a Derby string, and your study
> was \"unscientific\", but nobody is going to compare
> you to Federico Tesio if you are going to make a
> statement like \"Phipps stable has made a huge
> mistake in recent years in what stallion they send
> their mares to\".
>
>   Somehow, despite all this mismanagement, Team
> Phipps has produced among others, Personal Ensign,
> My Flag, Storm Flag Flying, Inside Information,
> Finder\'s Fee, Dancing Spree, Pleasant Home, etc.
>
>   The emphasis for Phipps seems to be on the
> Breeders Cup rather than the Triple  Crown, on
> developing a solid broodmare band instead of some
> fast and prematurely retired stallions. Pleasant
> Home is a fine example of the Phipps emphasis on
> the distaff side; she descends from one of the
> great runners/  producers in the last 25 years,
> the great Gold Beauty (Dayjur, Maplejinsky, etc)
>
>   In terms of determining who burned the most cash
> on unfulfilled Derby dreams, maybe you should look
> to the (middle) East.  
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 04/10/06 05:06AM by
> richiebee.

Shug or Dinny, if you\'re tuning in...First off let me ask you what happened to Strong Goer in 1995?

Secondly, I think its imperative that you know I can be retained for breeding advice. Line breeding, return to the sire the best blood of his dam, statiscial nicking, breed the best to the best and hope for the best...these and others have been sometimes effective recipes. However, what modern breeding requires is special insight. Theres no Fredrico Tesio now and if there was he\'d be about as effective as some of the big name trainers spending huge amounts of money for brittle and short distance horses at the sales.

You did fine with Pleasant Home, but if you\'re honest with yourselves you have to acquiesce that things have not been going well. For instance, the last two foals of this horse were not good mating choices:

http://www.pedigreequery.com/progeny/versailles+treaty

This horse has been nicked poorly, even considering Storm Flag. Juvenile races are nice. But was this horse bred to win the Oaks and Distaff or maybe even a Triple Crown race vs. the boys?:

http://www.pedigreequery.com/progeny/my+flag2

Heres another one of your wonderful mares that has gotten a couple runners. But were they really the type of runners you\'re after?

http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php?query_type=progeny&search_bar=progeny&wsid=1142716229&h=HEAVENLY%20PRIZE&filter=All+Horses&cf=&sort=&pedloggedin=0

What about the recent choices for his great mare? Monarchos? Kingambo? Unbridled was a good horse if you like them crooked.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/progeny/personal+ensign

Its fitting to end with this one Ap Indy and Dynaformer?

http://www.pedigreequery.com/progeny/finders+fee

Heres my challenge, with your pool of mares and allowed to select the stallions for all one year you will have two in the Derby and one in the Oaks. If you don\'t I pay you. You\'d never have gotten that arrangement from Tesio.

If you think Keyed Entry is a great horse with a great chance, you won\'t want to retain me. If you think your single T.C. nominee has what it takes to perhaps win the Travers, you dont want me either. However, if multiple triple crown nominees are your goal and you really want to win that Derby I am available for a contigency fee, but I would be selecting the mates for the entire stable.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The real measure of success would be @sum(Total
> Purses won + Total stud fees earned + (Total Value
> of offspring - stud fee)) - (Total dollars spent
> at Sales + Total Value of home-breds raised
> (regardless if they race))= (Net Loss) or Profit
> on Racing Investment
>
> Give me that one and you have a valuation that is
> rellevant.


Total Value of Offspring - Stud Fee?

Thats not a equation that is relevant unless you\'re trying to calculate an estate and even then the Stallion owner would have to own the offspring. All that matters is money spent and money returned. Its like a day at the pari mutual windows. If an owner gets 50 million in syndication, yeah you count that. Even adding in the rare syndication windfalls Lukas is certainly a mega loser. The losiest. Do you think he\'d invest his own money in the horses he recommends?

Baffert is a loser too, but not nearly as big a loser as Lukas and Coolmore. The key for them is they are losing the money of the wealthy and they stay in business latching onto a viable horse now and then. Its a \"look at my one success\" kind of thing. They are parasites.

[magicnight]

Next time I want to get completely delusional I\'m gonna try me some of that oatmeal stout!

[richiebee]

Smarty Chuckles:

1) Silver Charm I think combined our last couple of posts; it made it more convenient for SC to attack both of us, which is OK.

2) Its kind of unfair and unrealistic to compare the Phipps operation to some of the others which are being considered. How much money has the Phipps operation spent at auction over the last few years? Do you think when they breed to a stallion that they don\'t own even a fractional interest in that they are reaching into their pockets? Do you think you will ever see a Phipps 2YO breeze an eighth of a mile in less than 10 seconds?

   I\'m sure the Phipps\' are competitive folks, and would rather win than lose; I can not however think of a family which is more financially suited to losing than the Phipps\'. Breeding and racing is a hobby to them. The horses and Shug and Buzz Tenney are like extended family.

   In Jimmy Breslin\'s biography of Damon Runyon, he discusses August Belmont and August Belmont II, owner/ breeder of Man of War:

      \"... father and son had spent glorious hours planning breeding
       lines. Their eyes misty with power, they drew graphs with lines
       zigging out of the pack, those great outcropping lines that
       would have stable managers bringing mares to stallion barns for
       the perfect mating. \'We are not in this sport for winning races\'
       Belmont had said \'We are in it for the improvement of the breed to
       the point where it cannot be improved anymore, thereby giving us
       the master thoroughbred racehorse\'\"

       \"For his own tastes, old Belmont usually could be found off some-
        where making a maid giggle. His son adored women from diners in
        Commerce, Oklahoma who wanted to be actresses\"

   Of course the Phipps could have had more impact if they bred to the commercial stallions you want them to breed to; its slightly more questionable if they would have done better taking Chuckles\' pedigree advice rather than the Hancock\'s. The Phipps family has a history of winning races and producing breeding bedrock going back to at least the 1930s.

   To be fair, Dinny and Shug don\'t need me to defend their record and probably will not be taking you up on your offer to manage their bloodstock.
   

     

[Silver Charm]

>Silver Charm I think combined our last couple of posts; it made it more >convenient for SC to attack both of us, which is OK.

I am not attacking anyone just trying to help both of you see the forest from the trees.

>Total Value of Offspring - Stud Fee?

You are confused. You were assuming I was talking about the offspring of the Stallion. I am not. If the owner keeps the mare that he bought and raced and begins breeding to Storm Cat, AP Indy etc, this animal has tremendous value particularly if this offspring turns out to be another Filly. It needs to be added into the equation.


Baffert recently has had:

Forestry
War Emblem
Real Quiet
Point Given
Silver Charm
Captain Steve

Tell me the combined syndication value of the above and the prices they were sold to the Japanese and we have reference point to continue this debate.

Lukas has probably won over $200M in purses, and produced 100s of millions in stallion fees. Giving him a Top Line Career Base of close to a Billion $$.

Take all of the money invested by Klein, Sanan, Lewis, Young and others and he is still in the black.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Smarty Chuckles:
>
> 1) Silver Charm I think combined our last couple
> of posts; it made it more convenient for SC to
> attack both of us, which is OK.

Silver is just a little surly with Special Interest (Maiden) being the Old Man\'s only prospect. He\'ll be fine if the old guy can get a horse in the Breeders Cup.

 
> 2) Its kind of unfair and unrealistic to compare
> the Phipps operation to some of the others which
> are being considered. How much money has the
> Phipps operation spent at auction over the last
> few years? Do you think when they breed to a
> stallion that they don\'t own even a fractional
> interest in that they are reaching into their
> pockets? Do you think you will ever see a Phipps
> 2YO breeze an eighth of a mile in less than 10
> seconds?

Point noted. They probably don\'t pay full stud rate and they obviously don\'t push a young horse like that. But that is my point, they need to go outside their \"ususal suspects\" for blood. They have good mares, but they are boxed in most times with their stallion selections from their association with Claiborne. Kingambo and Dynaformer were interesting selections, but theres some very good and very reasonable Stallions out there and its that route that will get them in the Derby like they were in 1988 and 1989. But, you have to know which ones will do the trick and thats magic.
 
>    I\'m sure the Phipps\' are competitive folks, and
> would rather win than lose; I can not however
> think of a family which is more financially suited
> to losing than the Phipps\'. Breeding and racing is
> a hobby to them. The horses and Shug and Buzz
> Tenney are like extended family.
>
>    In Jimmy Breslin\'s biography of Damon Runyon,
> he discusses August Belmont and August Belmont II,
> owner/ breeder of Man of War:
>
>       \"... father and son had spent glorious hours
> planning breeding
>        lines. Their eyes misty with power, they
> drew graphs with lines
>        zigging out of the pack, those great
> outcropping lines that
>        would have stable managers bringing mares
> to stallion barns for
>        the perfect mating. \'We are not in this
> sport for winning races\'
>        Belmont had said \'We are in it for the
> improvement of the breed to
>        the point where it cannot be improved
> anymore, thereby giving us
>        the master thoroughbred racehorse\'\"
>
>        \"For his own tastes, old Belmont usually
> could be found off some-
>         where making a maid giggle. His son adored
> women from diners in
>         Commerce, Oklahoma who wanted to be
> actresses\"
>
>    Of course the Phipps could have had more impact
> if they bred to the commercial stallions you want
> them to breed to; its slightly more questionable
> if they would have done better taking Chuckles\'
> pedigree advice rather than the Hancock\'s.

Hancock? Claiborne is a shadow of what it was even 10 years ago and thats the problem. What moves has Hancock made that shine? Unbridled wasn\'t a bad one. 49er to Japan? Other than that Hancock had the Phipps horses and they\'ve dried up. Woody Stevens did more for Claiborne than Hancock ever did.

> Phipps family has a history of winning races and
> producing breeding bedrock going back to at least
> the 1930s.
>
>    To be fair, Dinny and Shug don\'t need me to
> defend their record and probably will not be
> taking you up on your offer to manage their
> bloodstock.

Probably not, opportunity lost is the greatest regret.

[richiebee]

Chuckles:

     I will exit this thread to begin the study of todays last couple of races at Hawthorne, which I think is a combination horse track/ car racing track (Thanx TG for the comp. Anyone else playing?)

     I will exit by reiterating my original point: Phipps Stable probably doesn\'t put emphasis on the Derby or Triple Crown. If they did they might do all the things you have suggested and would probably make different stallion selections.

     They would probably try to find a different trainer specifically for their Derby crop. IMO Shug like Frankel in terms of racing animals lightly is not comfortable with the demands of the individual races and sequence of the TC series.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles:
>
>      I will exit this thread to begin the study of
> todays last couple of races at Hawthorne, which I
> think is a combination horse track/ car racing
> track (Thanx TG for the comp. Anyone else
> playing?)
>
>      I will exit by reiterating my original point:
> Phipps Stable probably doesn\'t put emphasis on the
> Derby or Triple Crown. If they did they might do
> all the things you have suggested and would
> probably make different stallion selections.
>
>      They would probably try to find a different
> trainer specifically for their Derby crop. IMO
> Shug like Frankel in terms of racing animals
> lightly is not comfortable with the demands of the
> individual races and sequence of the TC series.

You won\'t get any argument from me that Shug isn\'t a great trainer. He was good before Supervets and he\'s good now, even if eclipsed statistically by guys that couldn\'t come near him before vetmagic. However, I\'m sure that Shug and his employers want to win the Derby more than any other race and would do anything to win it, except cut corners. Through the years they\'ve had some great horses, but somehow the Derby has eluded them.

[bellsbendboy]

As a clarification CTC the Phipps visit Claiborne every ten years or so. Seth makes almost all their mating decisions.  He is the best horseman around as he can identify every horse on the farm immediately by sight. Getting First Samurai is a major coup. About half of the Phipps mares are bred off the farm. They are certainly not infatuated with the Derby by any means. bbb