keyed entry

[davidrex]

this horse should get a ticket for impeding traffic,he was slowing down so quickly. made the 2nd place hoss look better than his capabilities.
unless k.e. is hurt,he probably will get his ticket punched for the derby.
how is his trainer going to get a 1-1/4?
allday seems to work for older nags,but this horse should go back to 6-7-8 furlongs. then next year they can win the b.c. w/him!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

davidrex Wrote:
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> this horse should get a ticket for impeding
> traffic,he was slowing down so quickly. made the
> 2nd place hoss look better than his capabilities.
> unless k.e. is hurt,he probably will get his
> ticket punched for the derby.
> how is his trainer going to get a 1-1/4?
> allday seems to work for older nags,but this horse
> should go back to 6-7-8 furlongs. then next year
> they can win the b.c. w/him!

Its very likely his wicked fast Gulfstream win was aided by the wackiness of that surface wet. Never believed he nor First Samurai were of top Derby material. They can surprise you sometimes as Barbaro did in the Florida Derby, but sometimes they run true to form too.

Not sure I can share your contention about the 2nd place horse. He gained multiple lengths upon Bob and John too. Jazil did save all the ground and he reserved himself early but he was exploding late. Will another 1/8th be enough to reverse on Bob and John? Not sure, maybe. They both are bred very similarly and very nicely for the trip.

[davidrex]

easy for me to pick against jazil in his next race,but what are the chances of the horse getting the same trip in a field of 20?
early fractions will/be just as fast 4 weeks from now and this nag will go wider than a romanian weight lifter around the turns.less hair maybe,but just as ugly.

[bellsbendboy]

Chuckles you may want to check out the come home time in the Wood.  Admittedly their was only one two turn race today, but they were crawlinggggggg home.  ALL Honour and Glory offspring have distance issues over 8,8.5 furlongs. Brad Free has made some less than flattering comments about the winner, but Kudo\'s to who did the ROTW analysis by touting the runnerup, although calling Jazil\'s last a bounce is a stretch, giving the circumstances. Good cappin.  bbb

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

bellsbendboy Wrote:
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> Chuckles you may want to check out the come home
> time in the Wood.  Admittedly their was only one
> two turn race today, but they were crawlinggggggg
> home.  ALL Honour and Glory offspring have
> distance issues over 8,8.5 furlongs. Brad Free has
> made some less than flattering comments about the
> winner, but Kudo\'s to who did the ROTW analysis by
> touting the runnerup, although calling Jazil\'s
> last a bounce is a stretch, giving the
> circumstances. Good cappin.  bbb



Who is Brad Free?

Not saying Bob and John will win. Not saying Jazil will either, but I like their chances better than some that had much bigger and longer reputations prior to today.

Agree that Jazil\'s running style will be his biggest impediment in the Derby, but that jockey has a way with him and the Derby field is looking like it may contain some natural gas and horses that like to keep the leader within arms reach. I think Pletcher will go with Keyed Entry. I\'m counting on it. Weirder things have happened than a horse like Jazil rounding to form and winning. They happened last year.

P.S. the track was deep

[marcus]

K E looked under  duress even before he faded , I wonder if somethig\'s up or if the horse was just under the weather .

 I don\'t know exactly what to make of it , he\'s a fast one but his pattern wasn\'t that healthy or sound to begin with ...

I\'d send him to an Equine Endocrinologist if it were my call .

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

marcus Wrote:
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> K E looked under a bit of duress even before he
> faded , I wonder if somethig\'s up or if the horse
> was just under the weather ...


He was a White Mercedes aided horse desperately trying to get that last eighth upon chemistry rather than heart, lungs and blood

If on the other hand you\'re implying a regression despite his Monster slop win at Hallandale, yes I\'d tend to agree. He regressed somewhat off the inner tube race.

[miff]

Can\'t imagine Pletcher sending Keyed Entry to the derby. Why would he?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
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> Can\'t imagine Pletcher sending Keyed Entry to the
> derby. Why would he?
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 04/08/06 07:46PM by
> miff.


Miff, i\'ve never known pletcher to be shy about taking a shot. Though usually fair, that track many times is groomed for fast times Derby day. Hold on one second, I\'ll show you why Pletcher will run...

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2005/derby_history/derby_charts/trainers/508.html

Theres another reason too. A trainers season in the sun doesnt last forever. Even the horse buying community can reach a reckoning with trainers. It happened to Lukas despite his triple crown accomplishments. In other words even though hes got \"The Green Monkey\"........hes got a much bigger Blue Monkey on his back and that one could become a Gorilla.

[Michael D.]

Miff,

the preakness in six weeks with velazquez up sounds like the logical plan. the track did get a bit heavy there, and KE just went too fast early. i wouldn\'t give up yet (but won\'t be predicting any runs in the negative \'1\' range until he cuts back).

[bellsbendboy]

Excellent MIFF.  Your posts are cogent, crisp, and clear and contain content. Depending on Pletchers other options I think the Met Mile will, or should be, the target.  As I recall H&G won it as a 3yo. Any thoughts on the late 4 in Lexington manana??

[miff]

Chuck,

I don\'t agree.KE couldn\'t run down Like Now who was on his hands and knees in the Gotham. Pletcher is no fool and only pressure from the owners will force him to the derby. It\'s unimaginable to me that KE will have any shot in the Derby regardless of his overrated wet track negative fig. I also think that this validates my thoughts since early this year that First Samurai is not a serious  derby contender.

Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint both ran well and Point Determined looks like he can make a meaningful late run in the Derby. I agree with the TG assessment that Bob and John is a grinder who may not be able to make position with several quicker rivals on derby day. I agree Baffert is solid even though he gets big time stock.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
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> Chuck,
>
> I don\'t agree.KE couldn\'t run down Like Now who
> was on his hands and knees in the Gotham. Pletcher
> is no fool and only pressure from the owners will
> force him to the derby. It\'s unimaginable to me
> that KE will have any shot in the Derby regardless
> of his overrated wet track negative fig. I also
> think that this validates my thoughts since early
> this year that First Samurai is not a serious
> derby contender.
>
> Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint both ran well
> and Point Determined looks like he can make a
> meaningful late run in the Derby. I agree with the
> TG assessment that Bob and John is a grinder who
> may not be able to make position with several
> quicker rivals on derby day. I agree Baffert is
> solid even though he gets big time stock.


This is exciting, so i\'m in the middle of a posting frenzy. I dont share you\'re opinion that Todd Pletcher is an especiallly shrewd horseman. He relies upon the mojo. Its gotten him to here. His Derby hopefuls are this horse, Bluegrass Cat and Sunriver. He missed the Derby last year. He\'s going. Its out of his hands. Never really was in them. Unless you believe hes a horseman.

[miff]

Chuck said

\"Unless you believe hes a horseman\"

Chuck,

I don\'t think he\'s a fool and I think he\'s a good horseman with great stock, so it\'s a tough call.

[bellsbendboy]

Must say CTC... Pletcher very good. Great help, deep pocketed clients and a sharp eye. Also as far as Brad Free goes I do not know many better cappers! bbb