Tentative Conclusions

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Tend to agree with North Carolina Tony. The Florida Derby Day card did favor horses on the front end. There was a bias. In that regard theres significant  vulnerability should the top finishers on that card catch a fair track next time.

However, theres little doubt that Barbaro and Sharp Humor ran Tops. Regardless of where he actually fits in the Handicap ranks, Bandini is a Negative horse and both Barbaro and Sharp Humor outran him Saturday. The most impressive race however may have been turned in by the unlucky cheater\'s horse. Sunriver ran a potential laden race, but for the stretch hang.

We\'ll have to wait to see what Tgraph says about the Florida Derby. Maybe its not as fast as I tend to think, but with a month to the big race those were well timed Tops by my reckoning.

[miff]

Chuck,

Some of the so called experts(weak opinions at best) believe that the 5 weeks betwen the FL Derby and the KY Derby will be too difficult a task(too long in between)for BARBARO.He just won off an eight week break so that alone should not get him beat.

Regarding the top two finishers,I think anyone who follows the game will agree that new tops were run and more importantly it answered some questions about both runners.How Sharp Humor ran that well after a tough previous race and a 59 bullet work in between may confirm a speed bias.Have to check the entire day.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> Some of the so called experts(weak opinions at
> best) believe that the 5 weeks betwen the FL Derby
> and the KY Derby will be too difficult a task(too
> long in between)for BARBARO.He just won off an
> eight week break so that alone should not get him
> beat.
>
> Regarding the top two finishers,I think anyone who
> follows the game will agree that new tops were run
> and more importantly it answered some questions
> about both runners.How Sharp Humor ran that well
> after a tough previous race and a 59 bullet work
> in between may confirm a speed bias.Have to check
> the entire day.
>
>

Barbaro impressed me. He certainly overcame adversity to win. However, I believe you have to temper that accomplishment with the way the track was playing. He came home in about 25.76, which was marginally better than Bandini. He carried five more pounds as well, though Bandini was under a hand ride. Barbaro is a good horse. He could certainly win the Derby. He could lose it at low odds too.

[miff]

Chuck,

I only saw two dirt routes yesterday at GP, Bandini, a much the best wire job, and Barbaro. I take it you saw the whole card and feel there was a speed bias on the dirt all day.

I doubt that Barbaro will be favorite but with Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron, Discreet Cat(hopefully) and a couple of other fast ones, it may be a very interesting Derby after all. Hopefully all will stay healthy and train up to the race well.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuck,
>
> I only saw two dirt routes yesterday at GP,
> Bandini, a much the best wire job, and Barbaro. I
> take it you saw the whole card and feel there was
> a speed bias on the dirt all day.
>
> I doubt that Barbero will be favorite but with
> Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron, Discreet Cat(hopefully)
> and a couple of other fast ones, it may be a very
> interesting Derby after all. Hopefully all will
> stay healthy and train up to the race well.

Bias is always a judgement call. I think theres several observations indicating bias.

Sharp Humor carrying his speed that far and fighting that gamely. (Which is not to say he can\'t do it again.)

Gygistar\'s rally coming up so very short. He was beaten 9 lengths.

If the speed was quality speed it essentially ran 1-2-3 around the track with positional changes among the pace horse and pressers. If it was 25-1 plus speed it faded with a couple exceptions.

To my eye if was very good to be a pace/presser Saturday, which it always is, but there was more edge to it Saturday.

[tmon]

I watch the USA tv show of the race. It seems for some strange reason the dirt kicked back from the front runners was coming back in pellet form. Some jockeys were getting welts from them. I would think the horses wouldn\'t be to happy about it either.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

tmon Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I watch the USA tv show of the race. It seems for
> some strange reason the dirt kicked back from the
> front runners was coming back in pellet form. Some
> jockeys were getting welts from them. I would
> think the horses wouldn\'t be to happy about it
> either.

I read Gary Stevens commented upon that. Didn\'t see the USA telecast myself. Some horses dont like to catch dirt, but dirt in the mouth alone won\'t keep front end horses out in front. They were quality horses up front. Those were legit wins, its just that in several races those up front certainly were not hurt by the strip running hard on the lead.

Churchill can be a fast strip, but its generally fair. If weather has it on the tiring side, some of those that faired real well at Hallandale may have their hands full Derby Day. I\'m real eager to see what TGraph scored it. Even if they pair Bandini at a 1 the Florida Derby horses with the five pounds ran Zero\'s or better. I would not be surprised if Sunriver comes out of that race with the best number in the negative range.