Florida Derby

[congaree1]

Flashy Bull runs a 2, so he is the most likely winner.What\'s wrong with High Blues and Sun River? That was a pretty good race, good chance they might do it again.

[shanahan]

uh oh...FB is dropping like a brick!  playing a straight WP on the bull, with an exacta box FB/St. Augustus

[davidrex]

flashy bull ran his race...pletcher and frankel are the pair up kings for older horses,throw both his nags out...doc is the only improving horse w/small incremental moves,even though he\'s 2 1/2 points slower...t. pattern sucks.
rehoboth pairs up w/taken up last,33% chance he runs well enough to make exotics.
is sharp humor lone early speed? me thinx jock will run & gun. getting the lead shouldn\'t be tuff and track is kind to speed.
barbaro has never done anything bad to me,so lets kick his butt out!!
so lets seeeee,put doc on top w/rehoboth,sharp humor(thats me),and who the hell knows
take underneath w/pletcher,kiaran humor and rehoboth.
GOOD LUCK!!

ok,so i\'m hedging w/ pletcher...kiaran...hope they both lose but come home safely.  

[davidrex]

Well I just saw the re-play of Doc Cheney\'s race.
As soon as I saw only 4 rear-ends in the gate ,I turned it off.
Sharp Humor to wire the field(saw his race too).
Race will have NO bearing on future races.

[NoCarolinaTony]

David,

I can see this race going one of three ways.

1) Sharp Humor Wires the Field
2) Sharp Humor and Barbaro and Flashy Bull  and Saint Augustus push each other into strong half and 3/4 fractions and Rehoboth runs them down
3) Barbaro is Class of Field sits off Sharp Humor as that one proves he\'s not a 9F horse and get jump on rest of the field.

4 horses just don\'t fit on TG Figs or on paper for that mater:
Hesanoldsalt(ready for Claimers),Charming Image(cheap Claimer), Doc Cheney,Sams Ace(why ship?),. That leaves 7.

High Blues runs consistent figs but is just 1/8. Not the tyoe that wins this.Hesanoldsalt beat this one already ..do I need to say more? Can complete a tri or super. Should run in the 4-6 range.

Flashy Bull Looks more 7F 8F type horse to me, and 1/8 lifetime enough said. Projects between 3-5.

Saint Augustus Wires a 4 horse field that included Doc Cheney. Saint Augustus projects to run between 3.2 and 8.

Sharp Humor 4 for 6. Only Legit Speed in race stretching out. What did we learn last week at TP? Not like this one is not bread to handle this distance either. May be second best value in race. I can see a W2W job here. Can see him between 2-5 range. 20% Chance to win this.

Sunriver. Connections are good. Also beaten by Hesanoldsalt!!! Last was nice race against over hyped Superfly and already dismissed High Blues. has lots of variablility to run between a 1.2 and 5.

Barbaro is the mystery horse. Great on Turf as we all know. TG Figs have been as consistant as any 3 yo ive seen in recent years. We all need to see a Dry Dirt race before we can committ to fav at even money. Still think this one finishes 1 2 or 3  in this race. Can see a 1-4 range here. Hard to say what you\'ll get but for sure an underlay. Worth a bet against.

My Choice to key in this race is a bit of a stretch in Rehoboth. Last two were very Good. Was coming very good very late in last despite troubled trip. Now goes back to JJ vs Sean B (king of Chicago for a reason ie he couldn\'t compete in NY). Recently Paired 3.2\'s could indicate a forward move is still there. Can see this one running between a 0.5 up to a 7 so it\'s a dicey proposition but with good value. I\'m keying this one in exacta\'s with  Barbaro,Sunriver,and Sharp Humor. Keying in Tri\'s/supers with those three, and then underneath in tri\'s only with Barbaro and Sharp Humor. I\'ll have to include Flashy Bull in mix somehow, but see him more third than second.

I can only see those four a possible winners  and those 5 in supers but going for value play it\'s Rehoboth.

NC Tony

[davidrex]

watched re-runs of Sharp Humors\' 4 wins. this guy ought to be racing against nascar, NOBODY passes him
Always looks to be beaten either in early or late stretch,but EVERY time he finds a reserve...VERY impressive!
Suppose only a reaction to his new top(after 4 months of growing up)can alter the outcome the race of this N.Y. bred.

[rando]

Tony  Watch St AUG    Better race than it looks like last out.  1 or 2 possible. Call if you like anything with meat today and I\'ll do the same. R andy  314 6295188

[bobphilo]

I like Barbaro here. Has yet to run on fast dirt but has won on grass and slop and seems a versatile type. Contested a quick pace in Holy Bull so race was better than figure indicates. Sharp Humor has speed and was impressive in return and can go all the way if he doesn't react to big effort off the lay-off and gets to relax early. Flashy Bull and Sunriver also have the figures and must be used in exotics.

Bets: Barbaro WP (if odds aren\'t too short)
Exacta box: B, SH, FB
Trifecta box: B, SH, FB, S

Bob

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

bobphilo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I like Barbaro here. Has yet to run on fast dirt
> but has won on grass and slop and seems a
> versatile type. Contested a quick pace in Holy
> Bull so race was better than figure indicates.
> Sharp Humor has speed and was impressive in return
> and can go all the way if he doesn't react to big
> effort off the lay-off and gets to relax early.
> Flashy Bull and Sunriver also have the figures and
> must be used in exotics.
>
> Bets: Barbaro WP (if odds aren\'t too short)
> Exacta box: B, SH, FB
> Trifecta box: B, SH, FB, S
>
> Bob


I\'d be very careful factoring the pace as \"quick\" when Gulfstream is wet. Theres been more than enough freaky wet track results and \"on their face\" scalding fractions to be skeptical about fast pace from those races. In other words, Barbaro has not seen a true pace scenario with better dirt horses yet.

Quick run to the first turn. Careful trainer. If he\'s not 4th or 5th four wide on the bend I\'ll vote for Republicans again in \'06.

[spa]

A perfect BETTING STORM.....big field,short priced favorite we can toss, and a $40 winner.

[bobphilo]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'d be very careful factoring the pace as \"quick\"
> when Gulfstream is wet. Theres been more than
> enough freaky wet track results and \"on their
> face\" scalding fractions to be skeptical about
> fast pace from those races. In other words,
> Barbaro has not seen a true pace scenario with
> better dirt horses yet.
>
> Quick run to the first turn. Careful trainer. If
> he\'s not 4th or 5th four wide on the bend I\'ll
> vote for Republicans again in \'06.
>
I had the pace quick relative to the final time and it\'s effect on the horses in that race. You have to take that into considerstion. Anyway, who says Matz hasn\'t taught him to rate. He\'s a considerable horseman.  I am concerned about the bad post however. Hopefully he\'ll work out a good trip.
You voted Republican last time? So your the reason we\'re in this mess.
I\'ll have to keep that in mind next time I read your selections. LOL

Bob

[bobphilo]

Upon futher review of the crappy win % from the outside posts at Gulfstream. I\'d scale down my win bet on Barbaro to a token minimum (odds permitting). Really good horses can overcome problems like this but I\'m sure quite how good he is at this point. I\'m keeping him in all my exotics though. He does have the ability to finish at least in the money or even win but I wouldn\'t key on him from that post. \"Wouldn\'t be prudent at this juncture\" as a ex-president would say.

Bob

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

bobphilo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Chuckles_the_Clown2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I\'d be very careful factoring the pace as
> \"quick\"
> > when Gulfstream is wet. Theres been more
> than
> > enough freaky wet track results and \"on
> their
> > face\" scalding fractions to be skeptical
> about
> > fast pace from those races. In other words,
> > Barbaro has not seen a true pace scenario
> with
> > better dirt horses yet.
> >
> > Quick run to the first turn. Careful trainer.
> If
> > he\'s not 4th or 5th four wide on the bend
> I\'ll
> > vote for Republicans again in \'06.
> >
> I had the pace quick relative to the final time
> and it\'s effect on the horses in that race. You
> have to take that into considerstion. Anyway, who
> says Matz hasn\'t taught him to rate. He\'s a
> considerable horseman.  I am concerned about the
> bad post however. Hopefully he\'ll work out a good
> trip.
> You voted Republican last time? So your the reason
> we\'re in this mess.
> I\'ll have to keep that in mind next time I read
> your selections. LOL
>
> Bob
>
>

I subscribe to the Harvey Pack Theory of handicapping and that is \"A Post Time Favorite should not be favored being asked to do something he has never done before.\"

Obviously, that goes out the window in the Derby with the Derby distance, but in the case of the Florida Derby anyone betting Barbaro is asking him to overcome adversity and rate for the first time. I don\'t let my money ride on a horse being asked to do that type of thing as the favorite. Which is NOT to say he absolutely Can\'t do it. On the probabilities though its a poor bet. He\'s not even the fastest horse on figures in the race.

I see four horses in the mix

Flashy Bull
Rehobeth
Sunriver
High Blues

Its a question of partial keying and eliminating lower probability combinations.

Rags are clearly wrong about Rehobeth

[bobphilo]

If Harvey Pack doesn\'t like a horse I like him better already. LOL
Actually, I\'ve already downgraded Barbaro\'s chances based on his outside post.
I still think this horse has quality and his figure is good enough to keep him in in my exotic boxes.

Bob

[richiebee]

Bob and Chuck:

 If the outside posts are so bad at New Gulf in 2 turners, how strong was Flashy Bull\'s race in the FOY? (broke from post 10). After being stuck in outside stalls in his last 3, he gets some \"post relief\" today.

 Rehabbeth has never won past 7/8s. Sharp Humor has never won past 8f.

 Each of Pletcher\'s colts is long on foundation and will be curious as to their odds.