DISCREET CAT - JERRY

[high roller]

hi jerry

was the zero as a 2 yr old the fastest number ever for a 2 yr old?

[miff]

repied to.

[bobphilo]

It\'s no secret that Godolphin has concerns about his \"delicate constitution\" and may have only let him run fast enough to win. In light of his ability, it might seem unlikely he would go that slow. Timeform gave him a 100+ which is something like an 85 Beyer and about a 6 TG fig based on my conversions. However, the key there is the + which means he was really under wraps in that handy 4 length romp. His UAE Derby figure should be very interesting.

Bob

[elkurzhal]

Bob,
Some of the other fast two year old numbers I remeber...

Steve Wonderboy -1 1/4
Cuvee -0 1/2 (twice)
Forest Music (f) -0 1/4

Smarty Jones 0
Henny Huges 0 1/2 (twice)
Halfbridled (f) 0 1/2

[jbelfior]

Bobphilo--

Agreed, but as we have found out through much pain, the significance of the actual numbers is diminished when applying to 3yos going a 1 1/4 in May.

Give me a gradually improving 3yo with 2\'s, 3\'s or even 4\'s who was slow to develop as a 2yo but showed signs with late 2yo improvement and or pair-ups.

Broke through the 2yo top within 2 starts at 3, and has raced every 4 weeks, preferably beginning in late January or February. Shows tractable speed and finishing ability going 7f-1mile. Has a strong effort (new or paired top) going 2 turns.

Anyone fit the bill yet???


Good Luck,
joe B.

 

[bobphilo]

Joe,

The pattern you describe does sound like a good one, though I confess, I am not a great reader of patterns. I was mainly speculating as to why Discreet Cat\'s pre UAE Derby figure was so slow for such a fast horse.
I think that horses that run zero\'s and negatives early as 2YO\'s and than are forced to run them again and again while their bodies are still immature can burn out by their 3YO season. I suspect Discreet Cat has been allowed to develop with race like workouts but not all out races.
The crucial factor for me will be his UAE figure. If it show\'s he\'s on or near his peak, I think they can keep him there until the Derby. Of course, I woudn\'t mind seeing one more easy prep, but I\'m not sure it\'s essential.
My view is that Godolphin has just not had the horses that could win the Derby untill now. Blues and Standards looked like he could be the one but was injured and later got sick and, tragically died. Discreet Cat could just be the one but, like I said, I need to see the UAE Derby figure.

Bob

[richiebee]

BP:

Let the man sleep.

Looking at the TGs (I didn\'t see DRF PPS) it looks like he beat \"slow drek\". I saw a bunch of locals, a horse that broke its maiden at Woodbine, a British winter racer...Am I missing something?

[P.Eckhart]

The time probably. TG wont give this a slow number. It compares well alongside Utopia and Electrocutionist. Timeform have given UAE Derby perf as 119+

[bobphilo]

Thanks for the Timeform figure. 119+, cool. That\'s about a 104+ Beyer which roughly puts it in the neg 1 TG neighborhood according to my early findings.
Factoring in weight and ground might even make it even better.
That\'s a sneak peak at my conversion formula but I haven\'t done used all my data yet so it could vary by another point or so in the final analysis.

In any case, regarding whther Discreet Cat is a solid Derby contender off his figures, in the words of Michael Caine in Hannah and her Sisters - \"I have my answer\".
Not to be confused with the porno version titled \"Hannah does her Sisters\" LOL

Bob