Changing Track Speed - Statistcal Evidence

[bobphilo]

Jerry,

I believe that the fact that a track can change speed is frequently obvious by just applying common sense to what's happening to the figures. I know of at least one critic of your methodology, however, who claims that by doing so, you lose statistical significance.
As I know that you have a good knowledge of statistical methods, I was wondering if you have ever used or would consider Chi-square testing to show that there is good statistical evidence for splitting the variant or cutting a race loose on a given day. It is the method of choice for comparing 2 or more populations (races) to show if there is a difference in a variable (track speed). I think the results would be very interesting and would provide further justification that the track speed had indeed changed during the day.

Bob

[TGJB]

Bob-- Don\'t have a statistical background, and have not used it.You and North Carolina Tony have a lot to talk about, though.

[bobphilo]

If you send me a days results that has the variant you came up with for each individual race, I\'d be glad to do the analysis for you.
Idealy, if you could send me the results for a couple of days where it appeared the track changed speed and a couple where it didn\'t, I could do a comparison.

Bob

[NoCarolinaTony]

Hey Jerry,

I laughed at your response to Bob. One day I would love to talk to you about some over the counter software you can buy....no more than $200 and show you how to use it for your wagering benefit.

Bod would be happy discussing Chi squared or STD Dev with you anytime. We operate our business in Six Sigma and we have trained black belts working for me.

Jerry are you traveling anytime soon? Any trips to Kee this year ( I know it\'s your favorite track). Otherwise I can meet you at Belmont this spring meet and discuss the virtues of Stats over a beer and a P4 or P6.

NC Tony

[bobphilo]

Tony,

I'm pleased to tell you that I approved your membership in my Yahoo racing group and look forward to discussing applying statistics to racing with you there as well as here.
It's a small but fast growing group with several good handicappers, including some who post here. The main focus is on handicapping but includes other aspects of racing such as breeding, etc. we have a diverse bunch of members including a couple of owners, breeders and ex jockeys including one veteran who has worked with thoroughbreds all his life and now has a whole farm of retired racehorses he has adopted. One of our members in South Africa is an astute follower of international racing. We have a couple of races of the week every weekend were I can find free PP's. One of these is frequently the TG ROTW. Members get a chance to analyze the races and post their picks if they wish and after the races I post a pace and trip analysis and we discuss the races. I particularly enjoy  having you guys from this board in the group because there's quite a bit of collective handicapping wisdom here from which the beginners in my group are eager to learn.
I invite all those who post here to check it out. I think you'll find it interesting and useful as well as fun. Here's the link:

http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/Horses_and_Racing_Forum/

Bob

[TGJB]

Tony-- I\'ll be at SA this weekend, and hopefully in Dubai for the World Cup, if all goes well until then. Probably not going to Kee this year, but who knows. Saratoga Alabama weekend, maybe more.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Jerry,

I sent the stats software info to Alan. FYI

NC Tony