ThoroPattern Patterns

[BitPlayer]

To try to get a handle on ThoroPatterns and what they have to tell me, I exhausted my Redboard rights for February collecting information on as many dirt patterns as possible.  While much of what I found is probably well-known to experienced TG users, I\'m posting the results for anyone else who might be interested.  I\'d also welcome the comments/criticism of experienced users.

Dirt patterns on February sheets are presented for three age groups: Jan.-Mar. 3yos; Jan.-Mar. 4yos; and Jan.-Mar. 5yos and up.  For each age group there are 64 possible patterns.  Of those, I found info on 61 patterns for 3yos, 62 patterns for 4yos, and 54 patterns for 5yos and up.  (Most of the missing patterns for 5yos and up are those that involve one or more Tops.)  I evaluated patterns based on the percentage of Pairs or better they produce. On this basis, the best pattern is 3yos who have run Pair-Pair-Pair.  ThoroPattern indicates that their next race is a new Top or another Pair 72% of the time.

One thing I found is that the same patterns that are strong for 3yos are also strong for the other two age groups.  For example, Pair-Pair-Pair is the strongest pattern for all three age groups, and X-X-X is the weakest pattern for all three age groups.  The difference is that, for any given pattern, 3yos generally produce a higher percentage of Pairs or Tops than 4yos, and 4yos produce a higher percentage of Pairs or Tops than 5yos and up.  This doesn\'t seem surprising, given that 3yos are generally on the improve, while older horses are generally in decline.

In terms of what patterns are strong, a Pair is generally the strongest possibility at any position in the pattern.  More specifically, if I group the patterns based on the most recent race, patterns that end in -Pair are stronger than patterns that end in -Top, -Off, or -X.  If I group patterns based on the most recent two races, patterns that end in Pair-Pair, are stronger than those that end in Top-Pair, Off-Pair, or X-Pair.  Similarly, patterns that end in Pair-Off are stronger than those that end in Top-Off, Off-Off, or X-Off.  Even when I look at the third race back, Pair is the best option.  For example, for all three age groups,  Pair-Off-X, is better than Top-Off-X, Off-Off-X, or X-Off-X.  (I wasn\'t really expecting this; I thought the third race back might be inconsequential.)  Just as a Pair is strong, an X is generally the weakest possibility at any position in a pattern.

My conclusion from this is that the strength or weakness of a pattern corresponds primarily to what it tells you about the horse\'s ability/fitness level.  A horse that has run Pair-Pair-Pair has run his top at least four times, including the last three times in a row.  This indicates to me that his Top is well within his scope, and not something that he can achieve only on good days or in a favorable race scenario.

Some theories about patterns I have read in posts seem not to be justified.  For example, some horses are said to alternate good and bad races.  If that were true, you would expect X-Off-X (Off is due) to be a stronger pattern than Off-X-Off (X is due), and Off-Pair-Off to be a stronger pattern than Pair-Off-Pair.  Neither is true.

I have also read it suggested that a horse running a new Top and Pairing it once or twice is due for a bounce.  In fact, Top-Pair-Pair is the second strongest pattern for all three age groups.

[richiebee]

Bit:

   Good job of persevering on your research, but let me pose 2 questions, neither of which are new:
 
   Question: if one were to undertake comprehensive Pattern research, wouldn\'t patterns which represent limited samples have to be eliminated or lightly weighted?

   Question: Aren\'t you more interested in which patterns produce winning efforts as opposed to \"tops\"?

[BitPlayer]

Richiebee –

You\'re right about the sample sizes.  That\'s one nice thing about finding that the pattern strengths are similar for all three age groups.  Even if you have a small sample for a given pattern for one age group, you can learn something by looking at the strength of the same pattern for the other age groups.

I think a bigger problem than sample size is that many (most?) horses don\'t fall within one of the defined ThoroPatterns, due to layoffs or distance or surface changes.  In that respect, as TGJB has indicated, the ThoroPattern is only a starting point for handicapping.

Moreover, I think that by looking at which ThoroPatterns are strong, you can learn something about what\'s true and not true about the form cycles of horses.  I think there are a lot of misconceptions floating around out there.  I\'ve certainly partaken of a few, and have been able to improve my results not so much by doing anything brilliant as by doing fewer stupid things.

With regard to finding \"winning\" patterns, the flippant answer would be that if you\'ll tell me how fast they\'re all going to run, I\'ll take my chances on being able to figure out who will win.  A more serious answer is that my analysis so far has focused on who will run either a Pair or Top.  I suspect that the data will get messier (due to sample size problems) when I look only at new Tops, but finding horses likely to run new Tops may be where the real value lies.  Beyond that, ThoroPattern doesn\'t tell you how big a Top you might expect, which may affect whether a new Top will suffice to win the race.

[richiebee]

Bit:

  ...and to add some dust to the soup, what percentage of races are won by animals not topping or pairing...?

[marcus]

 I\'m still getting a handle on this new ancillary data and appreciate the observations , study\'s , musings etc being put up - thanks ... Just a couple non-statisical obsevations that most people here are undoubtably aware of , when a horse  need\'s to improve significaly ( in running big top effort ) in order to win , I try to evaluate , if possible , form cycle\'s , patterns and the type of numbers  that have previously been displayed by runners of that progeny ( not to mention the horse\'s own pattern ) . To get a fuller understanding if an explosive line is a stronger or weaker likelyhood , I\'ll use the TP , TGI and Breeding info to get a kind of window and departure point  to view things from - then , race conditions , trainer patterns/style , race conditions , pace senario\'s + others factors like jockey etc are also valuable to weigh . I don\'t take any of the new data lightly and so far the ThoroPattern has helped me to identify and differentiate between  A++ and  B-- /C play\'s  and has helped in spotting value ...