Beyer on Polytrack

[bobphilo]

I have mixed feelings on Andy Beyer for a number of reasons. Yes he is one of the pioneers of explaining speed figures to the general public and his excellent books have been a real boon to handicappers by explaining his methodology. On the other hand, he is one of the worst handicappers in the country and is notorious for his long list of losing Derby picks threw out the years.
His columns are usually insightful and entertaining reading but in his article on Polytrack he has made a perfect ass of himself. He admits that Polytrack is a superior racing surfaced praised by trainers, jockeys (and the horses if they could talk) because it is safer and offers a much fairer surface. The number of serious breakdowns has dropped dramatically at Turfway since it\'s installation. Unfair post position advantages and dead or live rails are gone and neither closers nor pacesetters have an unfair edge.
Beyer finds this boring and claims it makes it too easy to pick winners. Quite frankly, Andy needs all the help he can get in that area. There will still be plenty of variables left and handicapping will remain a huge intellectual challenge. Mr. Beyer is afraid the game will become boring. Yeah, there's nothing like seeing horses breakdown in front of your eyes to make the sport exciting, right Andy?

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=72374&subs=0&arc=0

Bob    

[HP]

Bobphilo,

1)  I can\'t see what influence Polytrack could possibly have on \"unfair post position advantages.\"  I think post position issues are more a function of ground loss than the surface.  

2)  You wrote \"neither closers nor pacesetters have an unfair edge.\"  Having watched a fair amount of racing at Turfway, I can say that the Polytrack surface makes racing there...unique...and I\'d say the jury is still out for this handicapper as to whatever more subtle advantages or disadvantages there may be...

Otherwise I would agree with your comments...  It certainly has had a measurable effect on horses viz-a-viz breakdowns, etc.  I\'m a little surprised they are so interested in California.  I would think the relatively stable climate would enable them to have more control over their strip as opposed to some of the other locales that are considering it...  

HP

[asfufh]

There is no way it is good for man or beast in the long run to be breathing those microscopic particles of carpet (or whatever the stuff is). On TV, the cloud created from the kickback seems to be getting worse. They have to stop ignoring it and do something about it or somebody will pay dearly down the road. AsFufH

[bobphilo]

HP,

By post position advantage I was refering to the possibility of being caught on a dead rail if you draw inside or unlikely to get to a live rail if you draw outside. It\'s an issue of uniformity of the rcing surface.
Beyer himself says that Turfway was notoriously speed favoring before Polytrack and no such clear bias has been evident since - at least not yet.
California did not mandate Polytrck for it\'s all weather properties. It was more concerned with the high rate of injuries and breakdowns on it\'s hard dirt surfaces.

Bob

[HP]

The cloud issue is duly noted.  Like I said, it\'s a unique phenomenon.  Reminds me of the Philly Park chart note I read once -- \"swerved to avoid goose.\"  

I\'m looking forward to Turfway notes --\"circled cloud\" or \"balked nearing cloud.\"  

Instead of lost irons -- \"rider lost mask in stretch\" or \"horse/jock combined coughing fit -- caught at wire.\"  

Will they have a designation like the asterisk they used to put in the Racing Form for potential mud lovers?  Will they be able to breed horses that love the cloud?  It\'s an evolving area (I have noticed the Polytrack TG symbol).  

Will TG note particularly large clouds?  Larger fields will have bigger clouds...as will fields with a lot of pace up front...  I\'ll have to factor that in...  

HP

[HP]

Bobphilo,

I hear you on \"uniformity.\"  That makes some amount of sense.  As for the Turfway speed favoring bias...I don\'t watch it every day...but on the days I watch...it doesn\'t look like the cloud is exactly helping the closers.  

HP

[bobphilo]

At this point it is known for a fact that Polytrack reduces injuries. As for the dust it generates, the EPA has found no hazzardous material in any of it\'s ingrediants. The silica it contains is wax coated and too large to get into the alvioli of the lungs. It\'s microscopic stuff that can be harmfull and there isn\'t anything microscopic (or macroscopic) in Polytrack that is dangerous.
I\'ll go with something that has been proven to save lives over vague speculation any day.
The dust problem can be alleviated if Tufway bothered to water the track more often. Everything kicks up dust if allowed to dry too much. LOW maintanence does not mean NO maintanence.

Bob

[bobphilo]

HP,

I haven\'t heard the closing horses complining. LOL. Seriously, I\'d have to see the stats. It seems like the horsemen, including those that train closers, love it.

Bob

[asfufh]

Bob P, I\'m not an environmental scientist so can\'t comment on whether the cloud is hazardous or not to anybody\'s health. However, the \"cloud\" looks visually bad and all the horseracing industry needs right now is controversy over the harmful affects of the \"cloud\" on horses and humans.
I can just see 20 horses coming down the stretch in the Kentucky Derby on international TV through a cloud billowing to mammoth proportions because of the kickback of 80 thundering hoofs. The cloud would be so big the railbirds would need surgical masks!
If it is so easy to fix, why doesn\'t Turfway do it?
aSfuFh

[bobphilo]

Good question about Turfway, asfufh. You\'d have to ask them why they don\'t water it enough. Polytrack has been in use for years at various English tracks and I\'ve yet to hear anything about a problem with dust clouds. I suspect a maintanence problem. You mention the negative publicity from any health problems caused by Polytrack. It is for that very reason - bad publicity - that California is mandating Polytrack because all the breakdowns of horses on their dirt surfaces are hurting the game - not to mention what it\'d doing to the horses going down and their riders. It\'s not like all injuries will stop while we delay with indicision over something that there is no evidence of causing harm. We have to have something to race on. Why not on something that has been proven to save lives over something we know is dangerous. We go with what has been proven at that point.

Bob

[BitPlayer]

Bloodhorse recently had an article on the maintenance issues at Turfway:

http://news.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=32344

[P.Eckhart]

Nick Mordin in the Guardian said two US tracks are about to announce a deal to use Michael Dickinson\'s homebrewed Tapeta surface.

http://sport.guardian.co.uk/horseracing/story/0,,1714151,00.html
 

[Ron G.]

I think the biggest reason for fewer breakdowns is the fact the track is less banked that dirt surfaces -- the horses are not \"tilted\" as much when they run on Polytrack.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Andy Beyer is a very methodical handicapper. He really settles into his method and in this day and age it hog ties him. It worked for him 30 years ago. But its the 21st century now and things have changed. I really hope he picks a Derby winner. I know he\'s dying to come up with one. Who knows, maybe once he figures out how to pick one, they\'ll start coming in droves.

As far as polytrack goes, can anyone imagine it at Saratoga or Del Mar? Or Belmont or Santa Anita? I agree with Andy, there is a great deal of handicapping expertise that goes into the surface. I really don\'t want to see all tracks have the exact same \"consistency\". It might take some of the edge away from those that watch/study tracks closely.

Is polytrack really safer? It would seem prudent to give it at least a decade to be exposed to the elements and deteriorate before we all jump to the conclusion its safer than traditional tracks. In fact 20 years might be a more fitting test. After it has existed for a generation, we can begin to discuss installing it at Racings Mecca.

The Santa Anita Handicap approaches. Early word is that High Limit will be the morning line favorite. If High Limit ran a negative 1 or better in the Strub, he should be a very big factor. (Though I believe Lava Man has earned faster figures.) Theres always the probability that High Limit did run a negative 1. Though if he did I\'m currently inclined to believe that \"Bob and John\" ran a fast figure also. Then again, High Limit could bounce off a Negative 1. If he finishes 3rd or 4th beaten five lengths what will they say? \"He bounced\" I suppose. I guess we\'ll have to wait and see before we propose conclusions.

bobphilo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have mixed feelings on Andy Beyer for a number
> of reasons. Yes he is one of the pioneers of
> explaining speed figures to the general public and
> his excellent books have been a real boon to
> handicappers by explaining his methodology. On the
> other hand, he is one of the worst handicappers in
> the country and is notorious for his long list of
> losing Derby picks threw out the years.
> His columns are usually insightful and
> entertaining reading but in his article on
> Polytrack he has made a perfect ass of himself. He
> admits that Polytrack is a superior racing
> surfaced praised by trainers, jockeys (and the
> horses if they could talk) because it is safer and
> offers a much fairer surface. The number of
> serious breakdowns has dropped dramatically at
> Turfway since it\'s installation. Unfair post
> position advantages and dead or live rails are
> gone and neither closers nor pacesetters have an
> unfair edge.
> Beyer finds this boring and claims it makes it too
> easy to pick winners. Quite frankly, Andy needs
> all the help he can get in that area. There will
> still be plenty of variables left and handicapping
> will remain a huge intellectual challenge. Mr.
> Beyer is afraid the game will become boring. Yeah,
> there's nothing like seeing horses breakdown in
> front of your eyes to make the sport exciting,
> right Andy?
>
>
>
> Bob    
>

[bobphilo]

Chuckles,

My remark about Beyer being the country's "worst handicapper" was partly a joke in which Andy himself goes along with, though his handicapping skills don't quite match his figure making skills. I was very serious about how irresponsible of him to be against Polytrack despite the fact that he believes, and gives example after example of the surfaces greater safety. Look at the fact that it's endorsed by virtually every trainer or jockey who ride on it. Since it's installation at Turfway catastrophic breakdowns have dropped from 16 to 3.!!! All other evidence points to the same conclusion.  How many horse and riders could be injured or killed in the 10 or 20 years you propose to decide which surface is safer. We have to go with what all the data and preponderance of evidence shows is safer at this point. I'm all for preserving tradition at the "meccas" but the lives of horses and riders comes first. In any case, if a homogeneity of racing surfaces means a fair and uniform racing surface along with a safer racing, I'll take it. It's not like predicting the variations of horses' abilities and form cycles won't present enough handicapping challenges. In any case, certain things take priority over some handicapper's track bias angles.

Bob