ROTW - Dynamite or Dud?

[derby1592]

Repent is the obvious horse to beat and most likely winner. He will have to run an off race to lose and even then he might still win.

However, Easyfromthegitgo has the most interesting line to me. He is what I think off as a firecracker. His fuse was lit when he first paired 9\'s back in October. That pair-up signaled an upcoming big move. In other words, the firecracker was ready to blow up sometime soon. A few weeks later he came back with another 9. Obviously, the fuse was getting shorter. Then a month later he makes a small move to 7.75. That was not the explosion but a sure sign that the fuse was still burning. Six weeks later he pairs the 7.75. It looked like he might be just about at the end of the fuse but then he comes back with yet another 7.75 three weeks later. It has now been almost 5 months since the fuse was first lit and 3 months since he made any forward move. Either he is a big keg of dynamite sitting at the end of a very long fuse or he has now simply fizzled into a dud. I would say the odds are about 50/50 either way. We will find out on Sunday.

Good luck to all.

Chris

[MO]

Its a race for 2nd money. Easyfromthegetgo can\'t be eliminated. The other horse to use under Repent is Publication. Safe trip.
Mark

[Mall]

The last two were interesting, as they were my 1st exposure to both the firecracker analysis & the 2 yr old sub 6 curse, but why did you have to ruin things by starting one with the kind of insightful literary quote that Treadhead finds boring, after I\'d already invested in a notebook to keep track of his derby comments. Now I\'m afraid that the only entry is going to be that there are 4 horses Treadhead doesn\'t like, and that he definitely will be checking out Request for Parole in the Spiral.

And where does it leave things if someone extrapolates the quote & applies it to \"rules\" other than the 2 yr old sub 6 curse?

I almost forgot. AB is spot on again this week & Charioteer looks to me like a key at anything close to 10-1 considering everything AB said & C\'s breeding, Pletcher\'s success with stretchouts, the likely track condition, the pace scenario,etc.