Any thoughts on the Malibu?

[Sandreadis]

Analysis likes a 30/1 ML. Very nice betting race. Thanks

[shanahan]

call me crazy, but I am tossing diligent prospect\'s last race at KEE and going with him to take the Malibu.  Ignoring the mud race, which he won, the jump from \"5\" to a\"2\" or \"1\" seems reasonable...would agree that the obvious others will bounce off big # (tower, thor,..) and looks like the only really fast and consistent horse here is Attila, so for me it\'s a box exacta (attila/diligent).

[marcus]

I like the TG ROTW take on the Malibu however Attila\'s Storm is an entity that can\'t be denied  . I just can\'t forgive Diligent Prospect\'s bounce - looks like the 5 caused trouble when ran it ( at to young of an age ) in the spring as a 2yo , and now at 3 yo with all the time off and gap\'s , the big bounce off the 5 again . It very well could mean nothing and maybe DP runs a big one but ...  I tend to be more forgiving of big bounce\'s when it\'s the Fillies or Mare\'s . Good Luck though , the race does look wide open if Attila throw\'s in a clunker ...  

[Dana666]

A few little bits of info I can share. Wilko: was just out for the exercise in last, I mean the rider took him all the way back and only asked him the last quarter mile which he ripped off in about 23 seconds, I would think he can move forward off that big time, though I\'ve liked him before and he\'s disappointed, but I never thought he wanted to go much further than a mile, so this race might be his best distance. I have to like the draw too with all the speed in the race.
Unbridled Energy: The private clockers love this guy, say he is training tremendously. I was never too high on him but perhaps he has matured since the summer and that would make him a threat; Mandella\'s runners often need a race or two or twenty for that matter. Thor\'s Echo: Had NO shot in last, there was a supreme inside speed bias on Cal Cup day, and he was 7 wide the whole trip, I\'m not sure he\'s this classy, but he\'s a trier and another who 7 furlongs would seem his perfect distance. The entry of Greely\'s Galaxy and Osidy is a tad attractive because you get them both, Osidy is another who is supposedly tearing up the track in the mornings indicating he might like the dirt -- Greely is obviously talented. Atila\'s Storm: he\'s a little thing who seems to want to beat ya, all depends on how much pressure he gets - if he clears I think he can be tough.Dilligent Prospect: O\'Neil usually fools me and with this guy I can\'t really tell much; I projected he could run a zero from TGraphs on his best day and that would likely be enough to win this, so I guess I\'ll throw him into my multi-race tickets with the others I\'ve mentioned but my main look would be at Wilko -- gosh if he loses this one I might really have to give up on him.

A few other thoughts on the card:

Race Six: Cindago is an absolute beauty -- a runner who looks to be worth every penny of his 900K pricetag -- the first timers will need to run to beat him -- he\'s rather dazzling to look at. I hope he pans out.


Race Five: Charmo is another beast who Canani simply ran back too soon and he faced a very tough field on Nov 3 -- the ten post isn\'t so hot in a mile race but he drops back anyway so it shoudln\'t matter -- he should do the typical Canani explosion turnng for home and blow by these rather modest foes.

Race Two: Chinese Dragon looks pretty solid; he\'s a classy sort and in my mind way too good for those runners.  Buzzards Bay never seemed like a grass horse to me but who am I to second guess Ellis??? His grinding style would seem to open the possibility of a wide trip too. Hockey The General beat very weak fields but he finishes super and really reaches out late -- he should complete a chalky exacta under Chinese Dragon.

Race One: Sonny Jones galloped out tremendously in his last race and got a BTL from the Thorograph dude -- he couldn\'t be facing a weaker bunch of maidens!

Good Luck to All & God Bless!

[colt]

Thor\'s Echo (BEST BET) broke through with a new TOP in his last.  Given 7 weeks to recover from that effort - A major player in this race.  Unbridled Energy is a legimate longshot for a trainer who is very capable for getting the best out of horses (i.e. Rock Hard Ten...Congrats) who have displayed quality performances prior to being transferred to his care.  

Play - A Major WIN/PLACE on Thor\'s Echo...A Saver WIN/PLACE on Unbridled Energy...EXACTA BOX Thor\'s Echo - Unbridled Energy.

   

[P-Dub]

Have to agree with Colt on Thor\'s Echo, these 7F sprints sometimes favor horses that can route and cut back.  New top, plenty of rest and can get the distance you might get more than the ML too.

Shamoan is also interesting, toss the turf race and you have a nice forging line with a chance to move forward, a trainer who hits with 25% off the layoff and is also shortening up from a route.  Nice bullet drill too on 12/21 over the track -best of 61 at 5F. I just don\'t know if Attila\'s can run his number at 7F, at a short price he is strictly a saver on top of these two.

[bobphilo]

I agree that the distance is the only question with Attila\'s Storm but he has gone 7 furlongs before while earning the same number that he was running for 6 furlongs at the time. I like him on top of and below, Thor\'s Echo, Shamoan, Jacks Wild and Wilko in the Exacta.

Bob

[bobphilo]

bobphilo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I agree that the distance is the only question
> with Attila\'s Storm but he has gone 7 furlongs
> before while earning the same number that he was
> running for 6 furlongs at the time. I like him on
> top of and below, Thor\'s Echo, Shamoan, Jacks Wild
> and Wilko in the Exacta.
>
Malibu Stakes Results:
1) Proud Tower Too
2) Attila's Storm
3) Thor's Echo
4) Shamoan

The heartbreak race of the year for me. I liked Proud Tower Too but left him out of my bets because he had bounced off of every big race he's ever run - except for this time when he runs a new top. If I'd left him in with my other picks I'd have had a $176 Exacta, a $951 Trifecta and a $10,942 Superfecta!!!
This is not an easy game.

Bob  

[Kasept]

Surprised there hasn\'t been more fallout here from the ridiculous outcome of the Malibu and the embarassing condition of Monday\'s SA strip. What was the point of even letting any off the pace runner into the gate at Santa Anita Monday? In ANY of the dirt races??

A promising 2 year old (Da Stoops) runs 7f in the exact same time as a Gr. I 7/8ths for elders two hours later? 1:21.3? Please...

Three weeks ago, Proud Tower and late runner Jack\'s Wild are seperated by a neck at the wire at 7.5f at HOL... Monday? 11 lengths. Earlier in November on a fairer SA surface, Thor\'s Echo and Ninety Fine are seperated by .75 length... Monday? 7+ lengths.

What a joke. I hate to take anything away from Sal Gonzalez on his first graded stake win, and it\'s a swell score for Davey Cohen, and this is certainly a NICE horse... BUT, let\'s call Monday what it was.. a skewed result.

Kudos to Shamoan, Unbridled Energy and Osidy for being the only horses to make ANY progress into the leaders. (You know it\'s a dragstrip when STALKERS can\'t even get into the fray for god sakes...)

And BTW, what in the world was the SA crowd doing betting Wilko to $3.80, from the 14 hole no less, after watching 4-5 dirt races basically wired to that point? No wonder there\'s giant P6 carryovers out there all the time...

You get all juiced up because Santa Anita is opening, and this is what you get.. Lucy moving the ball on Charlie Brown AGAIN.

[SoCalMan2]

From those of you who watched the race (I was not able to see the race due to time issues (it went off at about 3 AM locally) and have not seen a replay), I want to know how the hell it was run.  I had a large bet with Attila on top and can\'t figure out from the chart what exactly happened.  The equibase chart of the race seems very confusing -- somehow Proud Tower Two got inside of Attila (Attila being in post 4 and PPT in post 6) at some point very late in the race.  Who was on the outside and who was on the inside on the turn?  That would seem to be pretty important.  According to Equibase, Attila was on the inside on the turn but then fought bravely to take the lead on the outside in the stretch before succumbing.  Was there bumping when they changed positions?  How did they change positions like that in the middle of a supposedly tight duel?

[marcus]

Seemed like the winner came through on the inside around mid-point in the stretch . Attila wound in the 3-4 path after the race shook out ... One thing that I  thought of after the race was , if I\'d only been able to come up with Proud Tower Two ( like alot of folks posting on this thread ) I would have cashed .

[bobphilo]

SoCal,

Proud Tower Too outbroke Attila\'s Storm and got to the rail shortly after the start. AT stalked PTT from just outside him all the way.
I don\'t know what race the chartcaller was looking at but PTT got insde of AS early and stayed there. he also claims AS headed PTT at the 8th pole but it didn\'t look like he got any closer than a neck to me. Maybe it was the angle.
In any case he really blew it re not seeing PTT getting to the rail early. I\'d expect a chart correction.

Bob

[sighthound]

>> You get all juiced up because Santa Anita is opening, and this is what you >>get.. Lucy moving the ball on Charlie Brown AGAIN.

I had Atilla, Unbridled, Shamoan, and threw Thor and one other in there at the last minute.

Right before the race, I rechecked my \"got the 2 chalky legs\" Pick 3 ticket, figuring I had a lock. The mutual clerk screwed up, I hadn\'t checked it at the window.

As I was watching my bets go down the tube in the stretch, I realized that on the P3, instead of the 7, clerk had punched in ... you guessed it

$348, I think.  What the hell. It makes up for the last time a Keeneland clerk screwed up (not an uncommon occurence here) and I lost  

Racetrack karma.

What\'s the biggest \"oops\" that ever paid off for people here?

[HP]

I get to a racebook in Atlantic City and I was a little frantic thinking I was late after dinner and I rush up and bet a three horse exacta and trifecta box at....Santa Anita.  They get in the gate and I notice it\'s the fourth race coming up, and I wanted to bet the fifth!  I tried to give back the tickets -- shut out!  Hit the tri and the exacta and won over $2,000.  I play the fifth race and my horses ran up the track...  HP

[Dana666]

Ok, but if you watched all the previous races, then how do you not realize \"Lucy was going to move the ball\" as you say?

In all fairness to the Santa Anita track crew, the track had been sealed as they were expecting rain; supposedly the track is to be deeper this year and more forgiving (they brought in folks from the east coast to work there), yet that news really helped (further) screw up my handicapping because as you astutely point out, the track was a joke, complete inside speed bias, no shot for anyone else.

PS: When I saw Wilko open at 5-2 (and I knew he had no shot at all) I thought I could get a price, but I didn\'t nail the winner; how P-Val could let \"Tower\" clear his horse is a mystery to me -- I thought he couldn\'t lose with the track profile. Wilko is just a bad luck colt who may never have the stars align again in his favor.

It\'s a tough game! Look at my earlier post -- how much better could anyone\'s analysis be? I had three races nailed cold (exactas and all), and I still didn\'t make any money. The prices were too short, and I bet too much into the pick six.

The grass course is in super shape though -- very lush and fair. Give the track crew credit where credit is due. We\'ll see today how the main track plays -- as always a crapshoot!