Bel Analysis

[dpatent1]

As posted earlier, a difficult card with no real stickouts.  That can mean a good betting day if enough favorites tank.

Here are my \'interesting\' plays based on the Rag. sheets:

Race 2: Vow -- had a nice line as a 3 y.o. with nice forging progress to an 11-.  Ran a 7\" first out, which probably signals a bounce but even with a bounce he\'s competitive and at 15:1 morning line he\'s worth using in exotics as a key top/bottom horse and betting to win.

Race 3 -- Personable Pete has a clear figure edge and even with a bounce should win.   Good horse to key in tris.

Race 4 -- Transcendental is fast and consistent.  Gap after last race is a bit of a concern but if she runs to her typical race she\'s the best in here.  Ellie\'s Moment is the other interesting horse -- excellent line and has had her bounce since making a 2.5 point new top two races back.

Race 5 -- El Gran Papa\'s typical 7 puts him right there.   Although Broadway Snowman has a  3 and a 4 this year, it will be awhile before he gets near those numbers again, given his previos tops and degree of bounce in last.

Race 7 -- Voodoo is a good play-against here.  She\'s giving 7+ pounds to most of thefield, has an outside post and is barely faster than several in the race.  Babae was fast and consistent last year. Has 50% chance to move forward off of her 8 in her only start this year.  There will be good value if Voodoo finishes 3rd or worse.

Race 9:  Two clear plays to run well here -- Strut theStage and Hap -- both ultra consistent and fast enough.  The plays against here are With Anticipation off his new top in last (a 2) and Boat Hollow, who I think will continue to regress of his top two back.

Belmont:  Horse by horse  with my fair ML odds --

Artax Too (1000:1+):  His 8\" top is not competitive and no reason to think he\'ll beat that this race. Toss.

Like a Hero (1000:1+)-- Another whose routes are 2-3 points too slow to even be marginally competitive (9+).  No sign that his line is explosive.  Toss

Wiseman\'s Ferry (60:1) -- Has paired up 5\"s in last two.  My guess is that is probably a substantial move-up from last year when Johannesburg was handing him his head, so I don\'t think he has much room to move forward.  I think he\'s likely to bounce based on the substantial tops and the Henessy breeding.  I only use him defensively  in tris (sorry for the Friedman terminology) in case something goofy happens on the front end.

Essence of Dubai (40:1)-- Marginally competitive on numbers (6\" in last).  Tough to toss out because a 1-2 point move makes him competitive but if he\'s under 20:1 he\'s strictly a saver use in trifectas

Sunday Break (4:1) -- Very tough to read off his sheet but the 4 was a decent number off of his big top in the Wood.  Still not thrilled about that 0\" but he\'s probably 40% to pair up the 4 or move forward.  Definitely a horse to play in exactas and other gimmics.  If he stays above 10:1 he\'s worth a sizable win bet.  A good betat 7:1 or more.

Perfect Drift (5:2 to 3:1) -- Most likely horse to run well.  Has a 3\" top which he is probably 35% to break through tomorrow.  If there is a key horse in therace, it\'s him.  

Medaglia D\'Oro (8:1) -- I have been very negative on this horse since his 1 -- much more so than Friedman, incidentally.  He has a pattern familar to me which suggests that a 3 or 4 is a 50-50 shot.  The other hand, he could be done for awhile and might end up getting pulled up.  He\'ll probably be fair value at around 10:1 so he is a definite use in tris and a good use with PD or SB in exactas, as well as with Magic Weisner.

Proud Citizen (5:1) -- Is probably 75% to bounce 2 or more points but if he can tri-up his 2+s he has a great shot to win. Would not be surprised if he runs a  5 or worse though.  Will be fairly priced but not an overlay.  Use in exactas with the overlays and include in the tris.

War Emblem (12:1) -- Before you laugh, based on what I projected him to run, my odds program -- the math, by the way, behind it Alydar is perfect -- kicked out this number.  I have him 85% torun worse than the 3- in his last and 60% to run a 6 or worse.  Toss completely unless you use him defensively for 3rd and 4th in superfectas.

Magic Weisner (8:1) -- Hate to jump on the bandwagon but the small but reasonable chance of a pair-up makes him competitive here.  Even a small bounce puts him potentially in the money.  jWon\'t be enough of an overlay to key but at 15:1 is good to use with SB, PD, MDO and PC in exactas.  A must use in tris.

Sarava (30:1) -- Interesting horse.  Nothing to love about his pattern but no knocks either.  Fast enough to have some chance so is a \'light use\' in exotics just in case he is able to jump up a point or so and get a good trip.

HP,  I\'d be very interested in your read based on the TG sheets, particularly if there are horses that look particularly good (they never look bad) on those sheets.

P.S.  This whole Peter Pan question that keeps popping up strikes me as completely rhetorical.  There is no question of any particular interest or importance behind the pairing up of SB and a couple other horses on the TG sheets.  It\'s just one race out of thousands and proves absolutely nothing.

[Anonymous User]

HP 6-5
Superfreakadelic 5-2
teekay 9-2
Jason L 8-1
Nunzio 25-1 (Please revise that Hidden Apple Selection)
David B. Patient 45-1

[Anonymous User]

I\'m probably not even betting this race (The Manhattan) mainly because I despise Turf racing. Too much traffic for my stomach. But you pure figuremen kill me. I can\'t resist and have to quote here:  

\"The plays against here are ...Boat Hollow, who I think will continue to regress of his top two back.\"

I have a figure that makes the one two back a better race also. But he \"regressed\" right into the winners circle of a Grade I last. In fact he regressed to a rather easy win in a Grade I in what would otherwise be a professional racehorse time. Coming home four wide in 11:4. As a matter of fact this horse appears to have regressed once before that just prior to winning the French Derby. That would have been the Epsom Darby and he regressed so badly he allowed both Sinndar and Sahkee to beat him. He\'s horribly bred out of Weymss Bight and that probably explains the regressions. This goddamn horse hasn\'t regressed once in it\'s entire life you moron. If you don\'t want to bet a favorite just say so. And if you\'re not even bothering to look at the form like many other sheet players...bet with both hands.

[Anonymous User]

I missed Forbidden Apples pattern from a year ago. She has shown a fondness for turf with give in it and she is working nicely. I see it now and no longer think she doesn\'t have a shot. I wonder about the quality of last years race. They almost got her at the wire. But she does have tactical speed and it is the inner turf. It\'s a cagey selection Nunzio. How is she gonna deal with Boat Hollow though?

[Anonymous User]

too many tequilas....she is a he ...i know that. I think its the name...Forbidden Apple seems like a mare\'s name...lol