Question on Measuring Development

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

The question of how much a horse has developed during a current year and accordingly, how likely is that horse to develop further in the next race, came up during the Sunday seminar.  I wish I could remember which exact horse it was, but I can\'t, so I will have to give you an example without having the horse\'s name.  

By the way, Allan, don\'t be offended that I am asking Jerry the same question I asked you, it is just that I am struggling a bit with the logic and am seeking a second opinion. (Think of it like seeking a second medical opinion).

Here is the example:

The horse runs his first race on dirt, in a sprint, and runs a 19.  

He comes back second time and is switched to turf, around two turns.  He runs an 11.  

He runs a third time, again turf route, and runs a 9.

The horse is bred for turf routes.

In analyzing his form and pattern, you could say he has already developed 10 points this year and as such, is unlikely to develop further.

or

I thought you could \"discount\" the first race, assume turf is his game, and not hold the 10 points of development against him, saying he could still move forward.

As it turned out, for the sunday race, allan was right and the horse didn\'t move forward.  

I had previously thought of development more in terms of year over year though.  In other words, his 2 year old top was 12, his three year old top is 6, so has already developed 6 points.  

Not so much, development within a year.  Sometimes a horse runs crap first time out, gets a 30 or some other slow figure.   Then he moves way up second time out to a 15.  Did he really \"develop\" 15 points or was the first race just bad.  

Anyway, just wondering what you thought.

Jim

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- that\'s a great question, and I want to answer it (and others like it, where it doesn\'t apply to betting a specific horse in an upcoming race). I\'m really busy-- shouldn\'t have wasted time on Raz, but what the hell-- if I don\'t get to it today, remind me tomorrow.

jimbo,

I had a similar question regarding the use of improved turf figures when a horse returns to dirt. I\'ve since been told that the ROI for top figure horses that earned that figure on turf and today are switching to dirt is more negative than the expectation. I\'m not sure if you would want to apply that information in this case, but I would.

I once studied the Beyer figures for 2YOs and 3YOs. In that study, the horses improved about an average of 1.2 Beyer points per month. Not sure exactly how that translates into TG points. Obviously some move forward a real lot and others hardly at all.

I think you have to make a subjective judgement when it comes to this.

If the horse\'s sire generally produces precocious horses, that would say one thing about the horse\'s potential improvement later in the year (or the next year). If not, the opposite.

If the trainer tends to bring his horses out really sharp at first asking (or at least early) that would say one thing. If not, the opposite.

If the horse is especially well bred, it is more likely to improve.

If the horse is trained by a leading trainer of quality stock, it is more likely to improve, otherwise he wouldn\'t keep it for long.

If the horse has been running figures that are very slow for the class and then suddenly develops, I would tend to think he has more to go even if there was significant improvement. If the trainer thought he was as terrible as he looked when he got started, he probably would have dropped him in class.

IMO, it\'s all clues. There are no formulas.

[Michael D.]

think the question came up in the 7th. we had good day sunday, but we read that one poorly. jerry, maybe you could comment on that race.
.....
thx alan, i though the seminar was excellent.

[David57]

As a passive but regular reader of this board who rarely posts, I just wanted to mention how happy I am to see a thread like this that actually discusses handicapping, without the words \"Ragozin\", \"acknowledge\" or \"lawyers\". I come here to improve my handicapping and my management of my own horses, and I look forward to Jerry\'s response and a lively discussion.

[RICH]

I have seen about 1 1/2 pts of development over 3 months using TG.

[davidrex]

     must have been the price of gas...cutting all those corners and dropping weight in your car!
PARTYpokerON!

[marcus]

Jerry would know best , but that 1st number can be tricky to evaluate and even more so in the context given . However , as classhandicapper ( + others ) elluded to that we are basically taking about probabilities and in alot of these 2 yo turf races one definately needs to get their price . If your horse has had no trouble at all , ran down to that number quite easily and with reasonably good spacing of races , why not another top effort ?
 2 yo number\'s  that range ( or better ), if I understand this correctly , are generally seen later in the year and are threshold type figure\'s which usually offer alot of promise next time out and even for the prospects for a 3 yo campaign as well .