From a Zito Chat, Sun King and the Popped Splint

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/talkinhorses/NZ81205.asp

Charlottesville, Va
\"Dear Nick, who is your favorite horse?

Zito:
Favorite is probably Strike the Gold. Now, I have a horse that I'm attached to in Sun King. Favorite doesn't necessarily mean the best, am I right?\"

Makes sense, regarding all the \"Captain of the Team\" commentary. Sun King is not a bad horse. Theres just quite a few that he\'s gonna have trouble with.

In regard to hte Popped Splint,

\"After Bellamy Road finished seventh in Saturday's Derby as the 5-2 favorite, the injury was discovered Tuesday at Churchill Downs. A popped splint is a racing term for inflammation of the tissue covering a splint bone — a small bone between the ankle and knee.\"

Sexton on the splint:

\"The Preakness is definitely out, with Sexton saying the report "was blown out of proportion.

The injury is not serious. It's just bad timing," Sexton said in a telephone interview. "We could run him in the Preakness and Belmont, but he'd never race again. This is not about greed. We have to stop. The horse comes first and you have to admire Mr. Steinbrenner for that. He took it like a man."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7805066/

Then Zito:

\"Dear Nick, Which do you feel was most to blame for Bellamy Road\'s loss in the Derby...

Zito:
The popped splint is there, and the lack of seasoning was there. He only had the two races. He had the best prep ever in the Wood. The splint was blind, we couldn't see it.\"

Now the predominate symptom of a popped splint is temporary lameness, so what can be distilled from these statements?

1. It was discovered three days after the Derby  

2. Bellamania was not lame and the splint was \"blind\"

3. It was minor enough that Sexton said they could have gone on in the Preakness

4. Prior to the Travers Zito still wanted to use it as an excuse for the Derby fade.

Sometimes a horse will run right through injuries. With this one, you have to wonder if it existed at all during the race. It seems they found a little inflammation three days after the event.

If you look at BR\'s and FA\'s PPs for the Derby, they have fairly similar running lines. They were both relatively close to the blazing pace and didn\'t finish that far apart at the end. The major difference in their trips was the gound lost.

BR was being used harder to stay with that pace while losing ground on the outside.

FA did a lot of his racing on what appeared to be a dead rail on KD day.

IMHO, formulizing the pace (that they both contended with) and the ground loss vs the bias into one comprehensive assessment of performance is no easy task.

Even if the rail was dead, how dead? How many lengths did it cost?

Was the 3 path better than the 2 path or were they equal. How about the 4 path?

Even if BR was on the better part of the track, does that offset the fact that he was being used much harder chasing that fast pace around turns on the outside?

I don\'t think there are clear cut answers to these kinds of things that can be measured precisely.

I think you can know that both horses ran WAAAAAY better than it looks on paper.

I think you make attempts to estimate impacts by looking at how other horses in the race (and other races for insights into the bias) with similar trips and ability performed. The answer will remain very fuzzy, but like I always say, I\'d rather be approximately right than precisely wrong.  

I think FA\'s performace in the Derby was a clear cut peak effort up until that time.

I think BR\'s performance in the Derby wasn\'t quite as good as his Wood, but it was darn good. I think this is a classic illustration of how much of an impact perfect conditions vs. horrible condition can have on speed figures.






 

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

There were some buried efforts in that Derby. Flower Alley\'s most notably. We\'ll have to wait to see how Tgraph rated that Travers, but regardless he is a horse with a recent progressive pattern and he was just asked to reel in a loose horse and acquitted himself quite well.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup will be interesting, especially if there are entries to dissuade another speed pop attempt. Post position plays a role in that race too. Bellamania has been very fortunate in most of his entry and post position draws. You have to factor how open class adversity may impact him. If you think he\'s got one in him that will probably be the race to make it pay.