Saratoga 5th and 9th on 8/19

[miff]

TGJB,


1.Saratoga Race 5 figs for SKU.Three sources have the last TG fig 8.3 slower than TG by up to 5 lenghts by scale comparison. You have it paired with the previous fig and it looks wrong even after adjusting for the 9 lb. weight increase.Input error by TG?

2.Race 9 figs for Phils Blue Way. Three sources have the last TG fig 11.2 up to 4 lengths slower, by scale comparison.Input error by TG.


From the beginning of Saratoga meet,there are 12 occasions where TG is substantially faster(3 to 5 lenghts) than Beyer, Rags and Brisnet AFTER making the necessary weight and ground adjustments to each scale.In all instances TG figs are faster.Please review when you have time and confirm the above figs are correct or otherwise.Thanks

P.S. Huge debate also about the last fig awarded by TG and Beyer on Victory Lap (8th SAR today.) since the only other Turf race at LS on 7/2 was for cheap older 25k claimers that crawled around the track in an absolutely pedestrian pace.

Miff,

\"P.S. Huge debate also about the last fig awarded by TG and Beyer on Victory Lap (8th SAR today.) since the only other Turf race at LS on 7/2 was for cheap older 25k claimers that crawled around the track in an absolutely pedestrian pace.\"

I am also curious about that figure.

I took at look at that LS race and thought there was at least some chance it was a fast paced race. If so, that\'s partially why Victory Lap drew off so big (there were few dead horses in there). If true, it\'s also likely that no one has a firm grip on that speed figure.

I bet the winner of the 8th to win, but used Victory Lap under and over because I wasn\'t sure what to make of her.

[miff]

Class,

Nothing to do with the TG fig (3.2) but Victory Lap had a perfect set-up/trip and hung like a chandelier, imo.My Typhoon was MUCH the best, buy didn\'t get the money.

[TGAB]

These are not input errors. Further review will have to wait until JB returns from Saratoga this weekend.

Miff,

I agree. My Typhoon was much the best, but the cash is just as green when you win with the 2nd best horse. This helps makes up for all the times I was best and got a horror trip.

It\'s unfortunate that My Typhoon was so darn good because the exacta would have been a good one.

[nicely nicely]

> P.S. Huge debate also about the last fig awarded
> by TG and Beyer on Victory Lap (8th SAR today.)
> since the only other Turf race at LS on 7/2 was
> for cheap older 25k claimers that crawled around
> the track in an absolutely pedestrian pace.

I make the figures for TX and just checked the Victory Lap race.  Only one other horse moved forward in that race - by 1/4 point. 2 others paired up bad back numbers and the rest regressed at least 4 points from their levels. The figure is solid in relation to the other two (not one) turf races on the day and from the subsequent performances of a couple of the horses out of that race.

[Wrongly]

Class

I must say I\'m surprised that you thought My Typhoon was the best horse.  Naissance Royale was the CLASS of the race.  2nd in a Group 2 and 4th in a Group 1.  Clement has been on fire and of course he was getting 1st lasix.  Oh, he was also going off at 9/2!

Wrongly,

\"I must say I\'m surprised that you thought My Typhoon was the best horse. Naissance Royale was the CLASS of the race. 2nd in a Group 2 and 4th in a Group 1. Clement has been on fire and of course he was getting 1st lasix. Oh, he was also going off at 9/2!\"

I thought Naissance Royal was the deserving favorite in there and played her to win at that price.  The way the race was run though, I think My Typoon actually ran the better race.

nicely,

I know you probably aren\'t going to agree with me so there\'s no need to debate it, but IMO when a pace is fast and several horses in a race are impacted by it, those that were less impacted would tend to beat those that were by a much greater margin than you would have anticipated had the pace been neutral. So there would also be a tendency to inflate the figure of the winner in order to give the horses that were negatively impacted by the pace, speed figures that are more consitent with what you would have expected.

I\'m not saying that\'s the case here. In fact, if the other turf races that day  fit together nicely then it sounds fine. I\'m just saying that that particular pace came up pretty fast both numerically and visually. So that might be why some people were questioning the figure. That\'s why I was (not just the TG figure...everyone\'s figure).    

[gregoryj]

I went back and looked at the 7/23 CNL race for Sku.  In that race the winner comes back to a top. The second horse repeats a top run which it ran in its previous race, the only other grass race the horse had run.  The third horse has a slight forward move to within a 1/2 point of its lifetime top.  There are two grass courses at Cnl, and this race fits with the five other mile races on the inner course. If I was to add four points to this race it would be out of line with the other inner grass races and every horse in the race would be running an X.  Don\'t know what other figuremakers did for this race but they may have paired it with the 9th and 10th races run on the same day on the other grass course.

In the Phil\'s Blue Way race the winner, Toni\'s Desire, was off a long layoff and had  only two bad figures. He ran a huge top. He came back on Aug 5, was the co-fastest horse on the TG figures with the even money favorite, and won by a nose over the favorite repeating his 7/22 figure paying $14.40. The third horse in the 7/22 race repeated a top which he ran again for the third time in the following start.