ROTW

[Michael D.]

nice analysis TG

sweet return should get the perfect trip here from post 2 in this small field. thoro-pattern says a pair is coming, which should win this.

a to the z should get a good trip for most of the race riding the rail in last. thoro-pattern says a pair is coming, which puts him right there. might lose some ground turning for home, so i will have him in second and third.

qsar - tough trip first out, then ran a decent \"3.25\" last. expecting a repeat of that. might lose some ground, but gets in light.

i will key SR on top, and use AtoZ and Qsar underneath in exactas and tris.

Good analysis.

I have a question.

Why is Castledale\'s pattern considered negative?

My initial reaction was to view him as a mediocre 3YO that fired one big shot in the SA Derby at 30-1 that he was unlikely to duplicate. He followed that up with a dreadful race in the Derby in the slop and they stopped on him - probably due to some problems.

The way I see his pattern, he came back as a 4YO as a better horse because I\'m not comparing his comeback figure to the SA Derby. I\'m comparing it to his more typical performance at 3 and prior.

Now he fired another big shot in his last race.

Im my mind, the question is whether this big shot will be followed by a dud or whether this is an improving horse.

IMO, this is an improving horse. He had only 4 starts as a 3YO and they were all early in the year. So he never got a chance to progress the way a more typcial 3YO would have. This move forward was also not as dramatic as in the SA Derby.

I\'m not saying I\'m expecting a faster race in this particular race, that he\'s going to win, or that he\'s good value. I\'m just commenting on my general feeling about this horse. I think his pattern says he\'s getting better.

[jbelfior]

I\'ll forgive the one off race in an otherwise strong pattern. I\'m thinking FAST AND FURIOUS rebounds to run a big one on Sunday.

I saw his race at Del Mar last year and he closed like a freight train after some early trouble.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

 

[flushedstraight]

Nice way to close out the weekend with a competitive G1 on the turf Sunday night...


Considering the accepted pre-race pace assumptions, the lower profile connections, and the hidden # in his last race \"flop\" it looks like A to the Z could be overlooked and possibly a value play here. Last time Gomez was on he gave a nice rail ride (at 41 to 1!), why not again? (at lower odds obviously)

Sweet Return and Singletary will both take lots of cash and will be little value considering the question marks. Sweet Return regressed 1 & 1/2 pts in this race last year and Brad Free loves him, and who\'s to say he wont be 2W both turns if the pace is slow as anticipated by his supporters in the first place? Mullins and Frankel will also take their (usual) share of cash and the other McAnally has also been well supported so far.

Considering how evenly matched these are, this one will most likely be decided by trip (as mentioned at the top of the TG analysis) which makes value essential. Is A to the Z fifth choice in here?

[Michael D.]

flush,
i picked SR on top because i thought he would get the perfect trip on top. now i\'m reading the DRF and the top headline for sunday is \"sweet trip up front?\". this might be a case where the other jocks take their mounts out of their game because SR looks so obvious on top. if gomez sticks to his guns and makes one run with AttZ, he just might save ground around both turns, and fire up the rail late. tough call. if they hammer SR down too low, i might have to consider using AttZ on top.

I don\'t think SR looks so obvious to make the lead.  

Singletary and SR have raced against each other a few times and Singletary was in front in those races. Singletary is coming out a 1M race with a reasonable pace and SR is coming out of 10F race where they were absolutely crawling early. Finally, Singletary is inside SR.

Obviously, you can never be certain about these things, but I actually think that Singletary will be on the lead and Sweet Return will be sitting in the perfect position by being in 2nd because Singletary\'s best distance seems to be 8F and not 9F. SR might get first run at a weakening horse and the early jump on the rest of the closers like Castledale, A to the Z in a moderately paced race etc...      

[spa]

I see a change of form here...Castledale looks like it\'ll be coast to coast, with A/Z second.

Michael,

I just read the article you referenced where the trainer of Singletary said he\'s going to take him back. Personally, I think that\'s a mistake, even if he wins. I think he\'s got a quick enough horse to make the lead with very minimal risk of going too fast early. By taking back, he\'s just going to make it easier for Sweet Return to wire the field with a loose lead, in a soft pace, on the rail -thus reducing his own chances of winning.  

They raced each other on these 4 dates (that I could find) and Singletary was in front every time.

7/23 2003
8/16 2003
3/6  2004
4/9  2005

IMO, the interesting thing is going to be the prices/values and not trying to select the winner from among several relatively evenly matched contenders.  

[davidrex]

classhandicapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael,
>
> I just read the article you referenced where the
> trainer of Singletary said he\'s going to take him
> back. Personally, I think that\'s a mistake, even
> if he wins. I think he\'s got a quick enough horse
> to make the lead with very minimal risk of going
> too fast early. By taking back, he\'s just going to
> make it easier for Sweet Return to wire the field
> with a loose lead, in a soft pace, on the rail
> -thus reducing his own chances of winning.  
>
> They raced each other on these 4 dates (that I
> could find) and Singletary was in front every
> time.
>
> 7/23 2003
> 8/16 2003
> 3/6  2004
> 4/9  2005
>
> IMO, the interesting thing is going to be the
> prices/values and not trying to select the winner
> from among several relatively evenly matched
> contenders.  
>
>
>
> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 07/23/05 04:13PM by
> classhandicapper.



     Even if he wins its a mistake!!!


PARTYpokerON!

Drex,

\"Even if he wins its a mistake!!! \"

Yes, I think so.

Horses win every day despite the incompetence of their jockies and trainers in terms of race development, bias etyc... The idea is to maximize your chances of winning, not hope your horse is so good it can overcome stretegic mistakes. I suspect that only a handful of jockies bother to even read the DRF to get a clue about how the race/pace may set up and most trainers aren\'t much better. A few notable exceptions are Frankel/Bailey and Velasquez.

[Michael D.]

AttZ scratched

[Silver Charm]

Bet $50 to win on Gun Salute in the Jefferson Cup at CD only to see him hammered down in the final minutes to go off as a 8-5 chalk who came up empty in the stretch. Considered betting him today before I left on a golf outing but became concerned the 3 he ran at Keeneland in April had set him back and wasn\'t sure he would bounce back this soon. Felt the favorite had received a dream trip in last and was beatable. I passed on the race only to return and see he paid a generous $9.40.

I know there are plenty of you out there who are screaming for me to pull the trigger but I have been zigging when I should have been zagging so badly lately that I did and the barrel was pointed out, not in.

Interesting analysis on the Ed Reed tomorrow. I have been paying more attention to the Thoro-Patterns because I think they are more useful from mid-year on than in the beginning of the year because the layoff angle renders the pattern useless.

Of the four major contenders (A to Z is now out) they all were around 50% to pair their respective tops which is what it will take to win. Little difficult to venture outside this group (on the win side) since the others look slow. Not much of forward percentage built into any of the entrants tomorrow so the entire race may boil down to price, pace and trips.

Thorgraph is negative on Castledale but Mullins is around 50% pair with this pattern and the horse has good rest coming in.

This race looks so tight I\'m not sure I could make a selction if you put a gun to my head.

[davidrex]

     Everyone in unison for the answer to this question.

Why do we run the race ....TO WIN!

Why do we point a horse to a certain race?....TO WIN!

Why does c.h. make repugnant statements and procede to defend his honor?...class..class?? (not c.h.)

     EVEN IF HE WINS ITS A MISTAKE!



PARTYpokerON!

Davidrex,

I\'m really surprised you don\'t understand what I am saying even if you happen to disagree with my view on the correct strategy for the horse. Just because a horse wins, that does not mean he was the correct horse to bet, was ridden properly, or that the jockey was given the correct instructions. To me, that seems too obvious to debate.

If you said you think the correct strategy is to take the horse back. That would make some sense to me. If you said you would still think that even if the horse wired, that would make some sense to me.

A horse that runs a superior race can win with a variety of trips, or if their major competition gets a poor trip, or if the competition fails to fire, etc... but usually one trip or strategy optimizes the chances of winning given all the possible trips and performances by the various contenders. Winning doesn\'t prove the strategy used was the best one.

[spa]

With,  A To The Z out, a straight tri...Castledale/Sweet Return/Singletary...It looks like a mortal lock.